***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Yea I addressed it 2 weeks ago, you are using 1 city which is a major outlier and using 100% incomplete data on flu numbers so you still didn't prove me wrong.

100% incomplete data? It's data from the 2017-8 flu season, which has been over for two years.

I'm using one city, which has a sample size of 8,000,000 people to draw from. Their serology data does not point to a substantively higher IFR than other regions given the cumulative number of infections, nor is at an outlier.

Serology study from Spain points to 5% prevalence with an IFR of 1.1%

New York City serology information points to 21% prevalence with an IFR of 0.977%

There's nothing different about New York's epidemic from Spain's if you look at IFR--it's not an outlier. Given that, we can draw pretty clear comparisons to age-related mortality, which is, again, substantially higher for every cohort over 18, than the flu.

[BigCatDaddy]

Mask work. Everyone should wear them for the rest of their lives or they are heartless assholes dont value human life.

[KCUnited]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Don’t even go there, Olathe!

Vaccine spotted at Best Buy; not wearing a mask

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

100% incomplete data? It's data from the 2017-8 flu season, which has been over for two years.

I'm using one city, which has a sample size of 8,000,000 people to draw from. Their serology data does not point to a substantively higher IFR than other regions given the cumulative number of infections, nor is at an outlier.

Serology study from Spain points to 5% prevalence with an IFR of 1.1%

New York City serology information points to 21% prevalence with an IFR of 0.977%

There's nothing different about New York's epidemic from Spain's if you look at IFR--it's not an outlier. Given that, we can draw pretty clear comparisons to age-related mortality, which is, again, substantially higher for every cohort over 18, than the flu.

The numbers for the flu are understated and the CDC websight clearly tells you that.

While flu deaths in children are reported to CDC, flu deaths in adults are not nationally notifiable. In order to monitor influenza related deaths in all age groups, CDC tracks pneumonia and influenza (P&I)-attributed deaths through the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) Mortality Reporting System. This system tracks the proportion of death certificates processed that list pneumonia or influenza as the underlying or contributing cause of death. This system provides an overall indication of whether flu-associated deaths are elevated, but does not provide an exact number of how many people died from flu.

And I am not comparing it directly to the flu, thats not what I said.

Now keep in mind this only KNOWN positives not asymptomatic or low symptom cases. Average age 81. Its not that deadly to people under 65 period.


rel="Lightbox"?attachmentid=120550&thumb=1&d=1590177603" class="thumbnail" border="0" alt="Click image for larger version Name: SDCCovid.jpg Views: 1545 Size: 248.9 KB ID: 120550" style="margin: 2px" />

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Yea I addressed it 2 weeks ago, you are using 1 city which is a major outlier and using 100% incomplete data on flu numbers so you still didn't prove me wrong.

Peep this....

If I am reading this correctly more people are dying from pneumonia than Covid across the board. That includes more than Covid+pneumonia.

They have this broken down for:

Covid Deaths
Total Deaths (why after Covid???)
Pneumonia deaths
Pneumonia + covid deaths
Influenza deaths
Influenza + covid deaths
Influenza, pneumonia or covid deaths

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisiona...9bhg-hcku/data

Powered by Socrata

[Pants]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Okay don't get conceding.

I didn't concede anything nor was I condescending if that's what you meant.

Originally Posted by petegz28

You're free to your opinion but don't start lecturing about what my patriotic and civil duties are.

Wrong as always. I'm free to have an opinion and I'm free to express it, pete.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Pants

I didn't concede anything nor was I condescending if that's what you meant.



Wrong as always. I'm free to have an opinion and I'm free to express it, pete.

Yeah you were very condescending. Express your opinion and in any way you choose. Just don't get pissy if I call you for being condescending which you were doing. Which I am free to do.......

[Pants]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Yeah you were very condescending. Express your opinion and in any way you choose. Just don't get pissy if I call you for being condescending which you were doing. Which I am free to do.......

I didn't get pissy nor did I ever say that you're not free to express your opinion. You're the one who told me not to express mine. Very confusing.

I literally have no idea where you're coming up with these things.

I still don't think it's condescending to have an opinion on what I consider to be a patriotic duty. I am not sure how it can be taken that way either.

You're a weird dude, pete.

[kgrund]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

The numbers for the flu are understated and the CDC websight clearly tells you that.



And I am not comparing it directly to the flu, thats not what I said.

Now keep in mind this only KNOWN positives not asymptomatic or low symptom cases. Average age 81. Its not that deadly to people under 65 period.


Attachment 120550

In Kansas the Case fatality rate for people over 65 is 13.67% for under 65 it is .50%. This, of course, does not take into account the large number of people that may have had it but were never tested.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

The numbers for the flu are understated and the CDC websight clearly tells you that.

And I am not comparing it directly to the flu, thats not what I said.

Now keep in mind this only KNOWN positives not asymptomatic or low symptom cases. Average age 81. Its not that deadly to people under 65 period.


Attachment 120550

The fact that you think that info is dispositive perfectly explains why you don't understand the debate.

You know how many people under 65 died of the flu last year? 8,000.

How many people under 65 died of COVID when the death toll was at 68,000? 13,300. It's obviously higher now, but we'll go with this depressed number just to show how off you are.

How many people were infected with the flu last year? 35 million had symptomatic illness alone. Antibody studies put our population at no more than 5%, which means that, at most, you'd have 16 million infections.

So, a disease with twice as many infections had 60% of the deaths for the people under 65, which makes it, at best, 3 times less deadly for that cohort.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by kgrund

In Kansas the Case fatality rate for people over 65 is 13.67% for under 65 it is .50%. This, of course, does not take into account the large number of people that may have had it but were never tested.

Elaborate, please. Are you saying those percentages are actually lower because there are people we assume have it but haven't been tested? Or are you saying the percentages are actually higher because more people died with Covid but we didn't test them?

Can't be both.

[BleedingRed]

New York refused to release its own statistics, but @AP found hospitals released more than 4,300 coronavirus patients to already strained nursing homes under a controversial state order. https://t.co/uIoxAfmbxn

— The Associated Press (@AP) May 22, 2020

GJ NY!

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Peep this....

If I am reading this correctly more people are dying from pneumonia than Covid across the board. That includes more than Covid+pneumonia.

They have this broken down for:

Covid Deaths
Total Deaths (why after Covid???)
Pneumonia deaths
Pneumonia + covid deaths
Influenza deaths
Influenza + covid deaths
Influenza, pneumonia or covid deaths

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisiona...9bhg-hcku/data

Powered by Socrata

COVID causes pneumonia, pete. You have to look at both columns.

This is the point where you will initiate a 250 post debate about what the true cause of death is.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

The fact that you think that info is dispositive perfectly explains why you don't understand the debate.

You know how many people under 65 died of the flu last year? 8,000.

How many people under 65 died of COVID when the death toll was at 68,000? 13,300. It's obviously higher now, but we'll go with this depressed number just to show how off you are.

How many people were infected with the flu last year? 35 million had symptomatic illness alone. Antibody studies put our population at no more than 5%, which means that, at most, you'd have 16 million infections.

So, a disease with twice as many infections had 60% of the deaths for the people under 65, which makes it, at best, 3 times less deadly for that cohort.

Uh okay, so are you estimating the number if people who had the flu and basing the death rate on that but not estimating the number of people who have Covid but instead using the hard numbers and basing the death rate on that?

That seems like what you are saying and seems like it is not a fair comparison.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

New York refused to release its own statistics, but @AP found hospitals released more than 4,300 coronavirus patients to already strained nursing homes under a controversial state order. https://t.co/uIoxAfmbxn

— The Associated Press (@AP) May 22, 2020

GJ NY!

Holy shit.
I remember when everyone was washing his balls for handling it so well.