***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by BWillie

I just hope we have the wherewithal to reallllly implement masks and social distancing a month before 2020 fall cold and flu season. It is to be expected this issue diminishes as the summer is upon us. As did the 1918 Spanish (Kansas) Flu. It came back with a vengeance in the fall.

The cold and flu season is the cold and flu season.

Otherwise we are going to get to see Patrick Mahomes for 4 games and thats it.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

Sorry I live in a state that handles these things better?

Aren't you the guy who said Texas has the best Hospitals in the world.

I don't see any Texas Hospitals listed here.


https://www.newsweek.com/best-hospitals-2020

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by Monticore

Aren't you the guy who said Texas has the best Hospitals in the world.

I don't see any Texas Hospitals listed here.


https://www.newsweek.com/best-hospitals-2020

Lmao how long are we going to pretend you’re not someones mult

[PAChiefsGuy]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

Is PA still in lockdown?

Yep. Although a local gym actually opened up defying the Governors/local state officials orders. See how long that lasts.

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

Sorry I live in a state that handles these things better?

You live in a state that has a lower population density than PA and isn't located between New York and NJ two of the states that were hit the hardest. You can't compare. Although I am glad to see Texas and other states that weren't hit as hard by the virus opening back up.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

Lmao how long are we going to pretend you’re not someones mult

What is a mult?

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

Yep. Although a local gym actually opened up defying the Governors/local state officials orders. See how long that lasts.

Tough spot. I saw bunch of gyms suing one of the northern states.

[Marcellus]

The whole Springfield salon story is a great example of media fear mongering and making people look like assholes.

The stylist had initially tested negative which is the only reason she went back to work after feeling sick and she wore a mask as did her clients even though she has tested negative. She then still felt bad and got tested again and was positive and didn't go back to work after that. And the only other positive test has been a co worker who there is no way to know who gave it to who etc...

So unlike the headlines and media slant its good news, the people involved were actiually trying to be responsible.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

(Kansas)

Lol

Yeah the 1918 Spanish Flu started in a farm in Kansas. And was spread throughout the world due to deployed soldiers. It was only called the spanish flu because spain was impartial and one of the few nations reporting unbiased news.

QUOTE=BigCatDaddy;14987880][/QUOTE]

Whats so funny? I dont understand. You don't want to watch a full NFL season of football or something?

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

Lmao how long are we going to pretend you’re not someones mult

Ive wondered about this, dude is Canadian and shows up out of nowhere and seems to know everyone on the board and the history here.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Ive wondered about this, dude is Canadian and shows up out of nowhere and seems to know everyone on the board and the history here.

Been lurking for 15 years, figured the day of the Superbowl was as good as any to join.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

Yep. Although a local gym actually opened up defying the Governors/local state officials orders. See how long that lasts.



You live in a state that has a lower population density than PA and isn't located between New York and NJ two of the states that were hit the hardest. You can't compare. Although I am glad to see Texas and other states that weren't hit as hard by the virus opening back up.

Population density is a small factor. We are out of the cold and flu season. This is the biggest factor. Just like every other year. The only difference is we have a much more deadly and novel virus. There is every reason to suggest that the spread of the virus will be naturally curbed during the summer and come back with a vengeance in the fall. Like it does every other year.

[PAChiefsGuy]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

Tough spot. I saw bunch of gyms suing one of the northern states.

Yeah a couple of gyms have tried to open up in PA and NJ but they always end up shutting down due to the citations they get. You are right it is a tough spot for local gyms. I know their revenue relies heavily on monthly membership fees which I'm sure they had to suspend. The gym franchises can handle this shutdown much better than local gyms can.

Originally Posted by BWillie

Population density is a small factor. We are out of the cold and flu season. This is the biggest factor. Just like every other year. The only difference is we have a much more deadly and novel virus. There is every reason to suggest that the spread of the virus will be naturally curbed during the summer and come back with a vengeance in the fall. Like it does every other year.

Okay.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

The whole Springfield salon story is a great example of media fear mongering and making people look like assholes.

The stylist had initially tested negative which is the only reason she went back to work after feeling sick and she wore a mask as did her clients even though she has tested negative. She then still felt bad and got tested again and was positive and didn't go back to work after that. And the only other positive test has been a co worker who there is no way to know who gave it to who etc...

So unlike the headlines and media slant its good news, the people involved were actiually trying to be responsible.

I agree , you never get the full story which sucks most people just wanted the info and not the reporters opinion on it.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

Nope you can if you want

Since you either aren't aware that you cherry-picked, or are and did so intentionally, I'll share the complete CDC estimates based on the five scenarios:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...scenarios.html

Scenario 1:

• Lower-bound values for virus transmissibility and disease severity
• Lower percentage of transmission prior to onset of symptoms
• Lower percentage of infections that never have symptoms and lower contribution of those cases to transmission

Scenario 2:

• Lower-bound values for virus transmissibility and disease severity
• Higher percentage of transmission prior to onset of symptoms
• Higher percentage of infections that never have symptoms and higher contribution of those cases to transmission

Scenario 3:

• Upper-bound values for virus transmissibility and disease severity
• Lower percentage of transmission prior to onset of symptoms
• Lower percentage of infections that never have symptoms and lower contribution of those cases to transmission

Scenario 4:

• Upper-bound values for virus transmissibility and disease severity
• Higher percentage of transmission prior to onset of symptoms
• Higher percentage of infections that never have symptoms and higher contribution of those cases to transmission

Scenario 5:

• Parameter values for disease severity, viral transmissibility, and pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic disease transmission that represent the best estimate, based on the latest surveillance data and scientific knowledge. Parameter values are based on data received by CDC prior to 4/29/2020.

Scenario 1 Estimated CFR = 0.2%
Scenario 2 Estimated CFR = 0.2%
Scenario 3 Estimated CFR = 1.0%
Scenario 4 Estimated CFR = 1.0%
Scenario 5 Estimated CFR = 0.4% (best estimate)

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by Donger

Since you either aren't aware that you cherry-picked, or are and did so intentionally, I'll share the complete CDC estimates based on the five scenarios:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...scenarios.html

Scenario 1:

• Lower-bound values for virus transmissibility and disease severity
• Lower percentage of transmission prior to onset of symptoms
• Lower percentage of infections that never have symptoms and lower contribution of those cases to transmission

Scenario 2:

• Lower-bound values for virus transmissibility and disease severity
• Higher percentage of transmission prior to onset of symptoms
• Higher percentage of infections that never have symptoms and higher contribution of those cases to transmission

Scenario 3:

• Upper-bound values for virus transmissibility and disease severity
• Lower percentage of transmission prior to onset of symptoms
• Lower percentage of infections that never have symptoms and lower contribution of those cases to transmission

Scenario 4:

• Upper-bound values for virus transmissibility and disease severity
• Higher percentage of transmission prior to onset of symptoms
• Higher percentage of infections that never have symptoms and higher contribution of those cases to transmission

Scenario 5:

• Parameter values for disease severity, viral transmissibility, and pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic disease transmission that represent the best estimate, based on the latest surveillance data and scientific knowledge. Parameter values are based on data received by CDC prior to 4/29/2020.

Scenario 1 Estimated CFR = 0.2%
Scenario 2 Estimated CFR = 0.2%
Scenario 3 Estimated CFR = 1.0%
Scenario 4 Estimated CFR = 1.0%
Scenario 5 Estimated CFR = 0.4% (best estimate)

“Best Estimate🤣”