***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[tk13]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

Anybody disputing his facts yet? So far all I see is people complaining about motive and him saying mean things.

That ain't how it works. If you make an accusation, you have the responsibility to provide the facts to back it up.

[BigCatDaddy]

2 guys with nothing burgers. Anyone else?

[eDave]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

2 guys with nothing burgers. Anyone else?

Is it even the point of the post?

[eDave]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Best post you've had. Those continuing to chant "freedom" and defy orders in this state will be the ones pushing us into another lockdown. No one wants or needs that. Do your part in mitigation efforts and we can at least maintain some assemble of choices for normal life activities for those wanting to partake.

The mental health factor of this is not lost on me either. It's a very serious feeling to be forced into another lock-down. The first one was hard enough, but a second could be devastating for many. While having a family skews my need for social/entertainment activities during this, those who are single honestly need them. I couldn't imagine how hard a lock-down and working in healthcare through all of this would be without a family to come home to. I didn't mean to rag on you about going out in previous posts, I am just asking you to go out and do it safely, with a mask.

I wish everyone would just take it seriously in this state. We are in big trouble if this is what the end of June is like. I never thought it would be this bad for hospitalizations this far into it here. Banner Good Sam, the biggest hospital in the state has 150 COVID patients. They've opened up 3 additional wings since the start of June to manage all of them. Just this week they also secured out of state nurses to help with staffing issues. It's not just beds, you need staff and equipment or the care sucks!!!

Thank you Lewdog. You've taken a load off my heart and your points were taken, and quite frankly it really bothered me that I upset you. And as I said in my rep, it, and the other times, wasn't as irresponsible as it sounded and that is my fault for it sounding like that.

Regarding the defiant ones, they are the Law and Order! types who are sitting right there breaking the law. And before somebody mentions the rioting, the Law and Order! types would be breaking the law regardless. Because of something very important to them.

It's part of what's got me all pissed off.

[tk13]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

2 guys with nothing burgers. Anyone else?

You believe that people were holding back test kits to get a state of emergency issued?

[Eleazar]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

IMO, it could do without the "bunch of idiots"/"desperation" rhetoric, that stuff makes it all sound just like the worst of the media, which seems to be the opposite of what's intended.

I just present it without comment, because the perspective media outlets are giving is pretty one-sided and panic-oriented. Here's a different one. Anyone can go check the numbers behind it all.

ES certainly has a negative view of the lockdowns and governance-by-panic in general and is not afraid to express that, but he at least believes the statistics (when in context and rightly understood) support it and he attempts to present the evidence.

People can do whatever they like with it, but it's helpful to see a deeper analysis in a world where most reporting on the virus is someone freaking out about one day's raw numbers, and other data points that in isolation are of limited use.

[tk13]

Originally Posted by Eleazar

I just present it without comment, because the perspective media outlets are giving is pretty one-sided and panic-oriented. Here's a different one. Anyone can go check the numbers behind it all.

ES certainly has a negative view of the lockdowns and governance-by-panic in general and is not afraid to express that, but he at least believes the statistics (when in context and rightly understood) support it and he attempts to present the evidence.

People can do whatever they like with it, but it's helpful to see a deeper analysis in a world where most reporting on the virus is someone freaking out about one day's raw numbers, and other data points that in isolation are of limited use.

I realize this will be in the wild minority on this board but the media is wildly underplaying this. We aren't all going to die, I said that in March. There shouldn't be any panic or fear mongering. If we're smart about things we'll get through this, and a lot of people will be just fine.

But... 120,000 people are dead in less than 6 months, and that doesn't count thousands of others who've survived and suffered life altering long term illness. Lung problems, kidneys wrecked, organ failure. Lives that are ruined.

One of the most powerful experiences of my life was standing in front of the Vietnam memorial and seeing the list of people who died. I think every person should do it at least once. It's incredible.

That took 20 years. And now we have a virus that's killed twice as many people in 6 months. And it's not a big deal. For the media, for society, for government. That's horrifying.

[dlphg9]

Originally Posted by Eleazar

Today's ES:

The weekend did not erase the 12 state rush in cases. We have media people running around flagging 'the most cases since April!!' What a bunch of idiots.

Mild confirmation of maybe half of the uptick in cases as being real (all young demographic). Being generous. pic.twitter.com/6ScpTpnWBX

— Ethical Skeptic ☀ (@EthicalSkeptic) June 22, 2020

The crossing of these lines indicates either we are running out of old fatalities to launder, or hospitals are more tolerant in who gets admitted than in the past - or most likely, both. pic.twitter.com/xuqvj4BP88

— Ethical Skeptic ☀ (@EthicalSkeptic) June 22, 2020

Much of the country resumed the downward trend today, even a couple of the states who are salting cases. That is pretty bad, when you are salting cases and you are still going down.

But alas, we have one more week of desperation trying to spin this as need for lockdown. pic.twitter.com/loXP8bIj4u

— Ethical Skeptic ☀ (@EthicalSkeptic) June 22, 2020

Steady rise in hospital census - but admissions are not following suit. This game can only last so long. Eventually people will stop watching, you run out of free money, and real medical needs start wanting beds - without risk of catching Covid. pic.twitter.com/VS8lhOxxHi

— Ethical Skeptic ☀ (@EthicalSkeptic) June 22, 2020

Good news today, is that when fatality numbers are not legacy boosted by old processed cases, we see a more realistic trend which matches the CDC excess all cause curve. Just remember that this CDC yellow line is over 2 weeks aged already.

In reality it may already be at EoS. pic.twitter.com/oBZNOrHUW6

— Ethical Skeptic ☀ (@EthicalSkeptic) June 22, 2020

Two days of resuming the tail form - but weekend. Anticipating retiring this chart when it ends next week. As cases right now don't mean a whole lot.

Our priority now is help those harmed by the lockdowns - that population is 20x even the cum total symptomatic. pic.twitter.com/2tGbBKg7mc

— Ethical Skeptic ☀ (@EthicalSkeptic) June 22, 2020

***

Edit - this is what the person means by "salting"

pic.twitter.com/a6o2xTlmiR

— Ethical Skeptic ☀ (@EthicalSkeptic) June 22, 2020

This person is a nut. He/she is tweeting charts/graphs that they made and use it as evidence that we are being duped. ES gives some vague tweet but never actually explain wtf any of this shit means and idiots eat it up because ES posted a chart and is using big words that I’m fairly certain ES made up. This person clearly has their own agenda and is pandering to a certain group of people that act like they understand the word vomit that is being tweeted, but 99.999999% of people have no idea what any of that shit means.

BigCatDaddy since you seem to agree with this nutty shit please break it down for my feeble minded self. What does all the mumbo jumbo mean?

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

Anybody disputing his facts yet? So far all I see is people complaining about motive and him saying mean things.

One thing I have been interested in for some time is how SARS2 will compare to SARS since 80%+ of it's genome is exactly like SARS. So this guy has been saying for some time it is following the same end of season like SARS which would be great if true. But the numbers don't bear out, just look at the chart.

BY June 23, 2003 there was 8500 cases and 800 deaths worldwide of SARS TOTAL from the start of the out break. This country alone had 31k cases yesterday and worldwide there was 3880 deaths.

https://www.who.int/csr/sars/country/2003_06_23/en/

SARS was contained by July 5th, 2003 does any one think in 2 weeks COVID will be declared contained? I would love for that to happen and will come back and eat massive crow but I am not hopeful.

[BleedingRed]

Lol panic porn is back!

[O.city]

https://twitter.com/coronavirusgoo1/...454042624?s=21

[dirk digler]

This would be wonderful if true.

JUST IN: CDC has developed a single test that will check for both strains of the flu and #coronavirus, Dr. Robert Redfield is expected to testify today.

— Ana Cabrera (@AnaCabrera) June 23, 2020

[Donger]

In Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott warned that "tougher actions" may be imposed if the numbers there continue to spike, but he stressed that closing down the state again "will always be the last option."

"Covid-19 is now spreading at an unacceptable rate in Texas, and it must be corralled," Abbott said Monday. Houston’s Health Department said Harris County hospitals have a 177% increase in Covid-19 positive patients since May 31.

[dlphg9]

Originally Posted by Eleazar

Today's ES:

The weekend did not erase the 12 state rush in cases. We have media people running around flagging 'the most cases since April!!' What a bunch of idiots.

Mild confirmation of maybe half of the uptick in cases as being real (all young demographic). Being generous. pic.twitter.com/6ScpTpnWBX

— Ethical Skeptic ☀ (@EthicalSkeptic) June 22, 2020

The crossing of these lines indicates either we are running out of old fatalities to launder, or hospitals are more tolerant in who gets admitted than in the past - or most likely, both. pic.twitter.com/xuqvj4BP88

— Ethical Skeptic ☀ (@EthicalSkeptic) June 22, 2020

Much of the country resumed the downward trend today, even a couple of the states who are salting cases. That is pretty bad, when you are salting cases and you are still going down.

But alas, we have one more week of desperation trying to spin this as need for lockdown. pic.twitter.com/loXP8bIj4u

— Ethical Skeptic ☀ (@EthicalSkeptic) June 22, 2020

Steady rise in hospital census - but admissions are not following suit. This game can only last so long. Eventually people will stop watching, you run out of free money, and real medical needs start wanting beds - without risk of catching Covid. pic.twitter.com/VS8lhOxxHi

— Ethical Skeptic ☀ (@EthicalSkeptic) June 22, 2020

Good news today, is that when fatality numbers are not legacy boosted by old processed cases, we see a more realistic trend which matches the CDC excess all cause curve. Just remember that this CDC yellow line is over 2 weeks aged already.

In reality it may already be at EoS. pic.twitter.com/oBZNOrHUW6

— Ethical Skeptic ☀ (@EthicalSkeptic) June 22, 2020

Two days of resuming the tail form - but weekend. Anticipating retiring this chart when it ends next week. As cases right now don't mean a whole lot.

Our priority now is help those harmed by the lockdowns - that population is 20x even the cum total symptomatic. pic.twitter.com/2tGbBKg7mc

— Ethical Skeptic ☀ (@EthicalSkeptic) June 22, 2020

***

Edit - this is what the person means by "salting"

pic.twitter.com/a6o2xTlmiR

— Ethical Skeptic ☀ (@EthicalSkeptic) June 22, 2020

Still need these charts and terms explained to me. If BigCatDaddy is unavailable can some other brilliant member help me out? Pete? BleedingRed? Eleazer?

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by dlphg9

This person is a nut. He/she is tweeting charts/graphs that they made and use it as evidence that we are being duped. ES gives some vague tweet but never actually explain wtf any of this shit means and idiots eat it up because ES posted a chart and is using big words that I’m fairly certain ES made up. This person clearly has their own agenda and is pandering to a certain group of people that act like they understand the word vomit that is being tweeted, but 99.999999% of people have no idea what any of that shit means.

BigCatDaddy since you seem to agree with this nutty shit please break it down for my feeble minded self. What does all the mumbo jumbo mean?

When I first saw this I'll admit to some confusion. I'm not a data scientist by training, so I wasn't going to assume understanding of this person's jargon, but the further you dive into it, the more you realize that it's a parlor game. Many of his pet phrases that he uses are simply not words, and the conclusions he draws from the graphs do not correlate with the sources he claims to reference.

A good example is the overlay of the CDC estimate data in blue to draw firm conclusions about serology when no study has indicated levels of infection that high, and the CDC estimate that he uses was one of many potential outcomes based on inputs that were purposefully estimates and not hard data to show a range of possibilities. What he does is take it for a fact and then extrapolates IFR from it while criticizing states of "salting" (which is a term taken from mining fraud) data.

It's a good case study in the persuasiveness of graphical design among the intellectually incurious, though.