***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

Yeah not so much, but nice try.

Again Texas has yet to have 3k people die of COVID-19. So yeah I think we are doing a pretty good job.

Funny considering we have been open 2 months.

What ever helps you sleep.

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by Donger

HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) -- Texas saw a record number of hospitalizations over the weekend, reporting more than 3,400 on Sunday.

According to data analyzed by ABC News, Texas is reporting an increased rate of positive cases, hospitalizations and deaths from coronavirus.

ABC13 learned Monday LBJ Hospital is over capacity for ICU beds, but a spokesperson for Harris Health System says they have brought on extra staff to help with those additional patients.

Now, hospitals across the area are trying to move patients around to keep beds open as the hospitalization numbers move steeply in the wrong direction.

"You can see that steep increase in the number of patients admitted to the intensive care units that are COVID positive and, you'll note that they're quoting it's approximately a 4.1 percent daily growth in the occupancy of the ICUs," said Dr. David Persse.

Persse says the amount of COVID-19 patients who end up in ICU has increased by 1.6 times since May 31.

LBJ Hospital's ICU bed capacity is 108 percent full. Meanwhile, Ben Taub Hospital says its ICU bed capacity is 76 percent full, and Houston Methodist Hospital says they're 84 percent full

So no do analysis on how full they usual are and lets compare and contrast.

Also,

Point in case with the panic porn

[eDave]

Is there something relating cigarette smoke to Covid? The reason I ask is that during my time at the Casino I was disciplined twice. Once for standing somewhere that used to be normal and again for lighting up a cigarette inside because they banned that too.

And why would I be disciplined for either as a bigger threat than the multitude of violations of the ordinance that are so blatant, widespread, and a far bigger threat to everyone?

None of this makes any sense!

[Dunerdr]

Originally Posted by Mecca

You should ask Sweden how that worked for them.

Theres a swedish jeopardy episode?

[Bob Dole]

Originally Posted by Donger

HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) -- Texas saw a record number of hospitalizations over the weekend, reporting more than 3,400 on Sunday.

According to data analyzed by ABC News, Texas is reporting an increased rate of positive cases, hospitalizations and deaths from coronavirus.

ABC13 learned Monday LBJ Hospital is over capacity for ICU beds, but a spokesperson for Harris Health System says they have brought on extra staff to help with those additional patients.

Now, hospitals across the area are trying to move patients around to keep beds open as the hospitalization numbers move steeply in the wrong direction.

"You can see that steep increase in the number of patients admitted to the intensive care units that are COVID positive and, you'll note that they're quoting it's approximately a 4.1 percent daily growth in the occupancy of the ICUs," said Dr. David Persse.

Persse says the amount of COVID-19 patients who end up in ICU has increased by 1.6 times since May 31.

LBJ Hospital's ICU bed capacity is 108 percent full. Meanwhile, Ben Taub Hospital says its ICU bed capacity is 76 percent full, and Houston Methodist Hospital says they're 84 percent full

Meanwhile my county has has 400 cases and 12 deaths. But you one size fits all champs keep beating that mitigation drum.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Eleazar

If I saw this person as lying, I wouldn't be posting it. I don't see them as lying, I see them making their own effort to interpret data that is publicly available. Because it's an interpretation, people can and should look at the underlying data and sources, and determine if they agree with the way he's interpreting it. I think it has been adequately presented here as one person's opinion and not more. People can believe whatever they want to believe.

Yes, there are some people who will only ever consider that which confirms what they already believe, and there are some people who will make poor choices based on poor interpretive data, but what are we really to do about that? Was that not occurring before these tweets were posted? Is it not better to have more information vs less? If people misuse what you provide, is that your fault?

If mods decide these posts are a risk to public health and want to censor them then whatever. If people want to poke holes in the data using facts, and thoughtfully discuss it all, that's what the posts are there for. Please do. I want to hear things I believe being challenged (not that I necessarily believe ES, I'm undecided on that) because if things I believe are true, the facts will eventually bear that out.

If people want to dogpile me just to be part of something, or for posting something that makes them uncomfortable, I couldn't care less about that.

At its core, the issue I have is just the feeling of anti-intellectualism that "sources" like this promote. It's like that study I posted a while back where a bunch of chemists concluded that masks were super effective. They even got it published, but when the epidemiologists took a look at it, they immediately could see all of the flaws in the chemists' thinking (even if they didn't disagree with the basic premise that masks are effective).

Same deal here. I don't know who this guy is or what his qualifications are, but he seems to be taking some very complex topics, making up his own methodologies, and presenting them as indisputable fact.

My personal view on all of this is the same as it's been from the beginning: I trust the people who have spent decades of their lives trying to understand this stuff far more than people with no expertise and a calculator. That DOES NOT mean that the experts are infallible, but the chances that they'll be right are far higher than those with no expertise.

At some point, it's just an odds game. If you had to place money on the Chiefs or Dolphins winning the Super Bowl next year, who's your choice? This guy strikes me as the Bleacher Report blogger posting a hot take that the Dolphins will win it.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

So no do analysis on how full they usual are and lets compare and contrast.

Also,

Point in case with the panic porn

I would imagine that LBJ ICU normal percentage is not 107%

Do you have data to show that's incorrect?

I'm sorry if numbers and facts bother you.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Bob Dole

Meanwhile my county has has 400 cases and 12 deaths. But you one size fits all champs keep beating that mitigation drum.

How many people live in your county?

[Bob Dole]

Originally Posted by Donger

How many people live in your county?

About 100k. About 150k in the MSA.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Bob Dole

About 100k.

That's actually pretty high comparatively.

[Bob Dole]

Originally Posted by Donger

That's actually pretty high comparatively.

A relative explosion, no doubt.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Bob Dole

A relative explosion, no doubt.

Pick a favorite county if you want a comparison.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by Bob Dole

About 100k. About 150k in the MSA.

We have about 100-120k in our district and have 30(1 active) cases 1 death .I understand your reasoning but I assume like us it wouldn't take much to overwhelm our small Hospital how much damage it could do to our retirement community.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by Bob Dole

A relative explosion, no doubt.

over 10 x the cases and death compared to my district of a similar size.

[Bob Dole]

Originally Posted by Monticore

We have about 100-120k in our district and have 30(1 active) cases 1 death .I understand your reasoning but I assume like us it wouldn't take much to overwhelm our small Hospital how much damage it could do to our retirement community.

We have 2 hospitals and probably 15 nursing homes. I haven’t seen how many of the 12 were residents.