***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[R Clark]

Originally Posted by kgrund

Yes which means he is likely good with data and numbers, which comprises the bulk of the article.

He’s damn sure smarter than me if he’s reerun at 37

[Pablo]

Here's a thread about pete, his terrifying neighbor and a light if you want a nice chuckle:

https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/show...hbor%27s+light

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by kgrund

Yes which means he is likely good with data and numbers, which comprises the bulk of the article.

Ah, well in that case you should agree that my opinions are superior given that I have both bachelor's and master's degrees in business (with an undergrad emphasis in finance). I also crunch data and numbers for a living.

(Hint: I have no expertise in epidemiology whatsoever. But then I don't claim to.)

[Pablo]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Ah, well in that case you should agree that my opinions are superior given that I have both bachelor's and master's degrees in business (with an undergrad emphasis in finance). I also crunch data and numbers for a living.

(Hint: I have no expertise in epidemiology whatsoever. But then I don't claim to.)

Holy shit, link me to your COVID article already.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by R Clark

He’s damn sure smarter than me if he’s reerun at 37

I was reerun at 37 as well, but you don't see me writing articles about Covid.

[Why Not?]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

I was reerun at 37 as well, but you don't see me writing articles about Covid.

Hahahha.

[Eleazar]

Originally Posted by KS Smitty

So this happened last week:

"Riley County COVID-19 numbers continue to rise locally, with now 61 active cases, and 132 total cases in the county since the pandemic began. Those were the latest figures as of Monday afternoon. (Earlier in the day, it was mistakenly reported that active cases were at 25.)

“We had a huge jump in our cases over the last week. We added a total of 47 new cases just last week, we tested a total of 320 (individuals),” said Riley County Health Officer Julie Gibbs Monday on KMAN.

Gibbs says as of last week the county was at a 14 percent positive rate compared to a 2 percent rate three weeks ago. Of the 132 cases, Gibbs says 60 percent are males and 40 percent are females. Most of the new cases coming in are younger individuals between 18 and 24. A number of them have come from being at social gatherings at local bars and restaurants...."

https://1350kman.com/update-riley-co...ed-aggieville/

There is a viral video showing the 'ville packed this weekend.

Now this is happening:

"Riley County health department announced Local Health Order No. 13.

This new health order is in place due to the recent increase in positive cases, more hospitalizations, and heightened evidence of community spread. The issue will go into effect at 12:01 a.m. on Wednesday Jun 24 and will remain in effect for 14 days, or until amended, superseded, or rescinded.

According to a press release, Local Health Officer Julie Gibbs says the data for the community indicates the need for more restrictions. The community will need to take steps to protect public safety and prevent the healthcare system from being overwhelmed. She adds that if these measures are not successful, additional restrictions may be necessary.

The mass gathering size, which was increased to 100 people last week, will now be reduced to 50 people....

https://1350kman.com/riley-county-he...-health-order/

Taco Lucha, So Long Saloon and Varsity Donuts have temporarily closed.

This is one example of the type of things I have recently posted about. This is an outbreak and certainly needs attention, but probably not indicative of a massive wave of unmitigated community spread across Riley Co. (at least at this point) The 14% positivity rate is probably owed to contact testing and aggressive testing of people who were very likely to have been exposed by being in a high risk situation at these large social gatherings.

Among other things it shows that Aggieville is a much more effective super-spreader than a large outdoor protest.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Eleazar

This is one example of the type of things I have recently posted about. This is an outbreak and certainly needs attention, but probably not indicative of a massive wave of unmitigated community spread in Riley Co. The 14% positivity rate is probably owed to contact testing and aggressive testing of people who were very likely to have been exposed by being in a high risk situation at these large social gatherings.

What does Ethical Skeptic have to say today?

[lewdog]

42 deaths in AZ today.

Highest daily total yet and it will get much worse for this state......

[Eleazar]

Today's ES (trigger warning)

Grist Mill states. 21 day change in cumulative hospitalized rising much faster than 21 day change in hospital census.

1. Short stays for Covid 'hospitalization'
2. Detected at hospital rather than coming for Covid treatment

Notice the states.... NO info for TX pic.twitter.com/HPvZa1W9T1

— Ethical Skeptic ☀ (@EthicalSkeptic) June 23, 2020

Two states fell out, OK and OR. So, this is really a pandemic of 10 states now. We are almost at the end of the need to track the entire US. A pandemic of the south border.

Despite grist milling, hospitalization is only growing at 15% as compared to the 154% jump in cases. pic.twitter.com/a9GbOZzOsU

— Ethical Skeptic ☀ (@EthicalSkeptic) June 23, 2020

With AZ posting a 33.5% pct-positives today, we know that SitRep data is a load of horse shit from many states now. It is disheartening to be lied to so blatantly.

This chart ends at the end of month with a 4.0% pct-pos shop production benchmark (not real infection rate). pic.twitter.com/ZR0UW1hkmG

— Ethical Skeptic ☀ (@EthicalSkeptic) June 23, 2020

Our south border Hot Ten States, are most decidedly having an effect on hospital census and admissions.

Case ramp up began Jun 10
Hospital ramp up began Jun 15
Fatality ramp up began today (Jun 23)

Now we watch these final 10 states. pic.twitter.com/jVCPliswgX

— Ethical Skeptic ☀ (@EthicalSkeptic) June 23, 2020

Today's 775 fatalities appear to be in part legacy case backlog which was held off for posting today. But also was driven by a 62 fatality increase in the Ten Hot States as a group over last week's avg. pic.twitter.com/9ZDGx1zpgu

— Ethical Skeptic ☀ (@EthicalSkeptic) June 23, 2020

Day 8 in an overall increase in detected cases, as we mine into the (in reality) much larger reserve of undetected cases (94,000 new just today). We can report 90,000 new cases tomorrow if we just test cleverly enough.

But this would be irresponsible & just downright malicious. pic.twitter.com/YFlhiUANo7

— Ethical Skeptic ☀ (@EthicalSkeptic) June 23, 2020

[TLO]

Ok great. Now can you sum up what he/she is saying like I'm 10 years old?

[Eleazar]

Again, I don't necessarily agree with his conclusions or his judgement of nefarious motives for why some numbers don't make sense. ES believes that old data is being mined for positive cases and other underhanded or irresponsible things are being done that boost counts. I'm just watching his commentary over time.

But he does point out some interesting data points such as some states' hospitalized patients numbers moving in ways that are not in concert with their census changes, or jumps in cases that couldn't be explained by community spread alone.

Overall, it seems the deaths curve is basically following the CDC's 'excess deaths' measure, but trailing it.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by lewdog

42 deaths in AZ today.

Highest daily total yet and it will get much worse for this state......

IT WAS THE GRIST MILLING!

[Eleazar]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

IT WAS THE GRIST MILLING!

Dunno specifically what he means by that, but generally among those who would call themselves "team reality" on social media, there is a feeling that hospitals - in dire financial straits - are doing everything they can to find positives for financial reasons, including some that are reported in ways that they feel 'salt' the data to make it less useful.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by lewdog

42 deaths in AZ today.

Highest daily total yet and it will get much worse for this state......

My Dad canceled his trip to KC because you young ****s are running around spreading that shit everywhere and he is afraid he might bring it here or something. Ungrateful, millenial brats!!!