***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[O.city]

Originally Posted by petegz28

So is that study suggesting MO really has 400,000+ cases? I mean MO has 19,374 cases. if 1 in 23 cases is caught are they suggesting 22 other cases are going unreported?

I haven't looked at how the study was set up, but that would appear to be what the math says.

[Bugeater]

Originally Posted by Donger

It's not indefinitely. Quite the opposite. It's defined. This won't beat this until the R0 is below 1. Either by mitigation, herd immunity or a vaccine.

We are nowhere near the latter, and we really don't want to have 70 to 80% of the country to get this.

So, that's what we are left with. Social distancing and masks.

I just feel like it would be easier to get more of the population on board by saying "do this for x amount of time and we can put this behind us". But I get it...it isn't that simple.

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by petegz28

So is that study suggesting MO really has 400,000+ cases? I mean MO has 19,374 cases. if 1 in 23 cases is caught are they suggesting 22 other cases are going unreported?

Thats why im asking about herd immunity because if this was true wouldn't w be getting close? Maybe not in all places but like NY were they have 400k cases confirmed.

[Donger]

We have 2,500,000 confirmed cases. If the actual infected number is x 10, that's 25,000,000 people. We have a population of 330,000,000

That 13.2% which is nowhere near herd immunity.

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by Bugeater

I just feel like it would be easier to get more of the population on board by saying "do this for x amount of time and we can put this behind us". But I get it...it isn't that simple.

at least it would give people time to prepare. But many have wanted a national response. And I dont think that will work here based off the geographical differences and delays in virus outbreak.

Also the problem is right now less than 1% cases in the world are considered critical. Meaning 99% people who have COVID19 Right now in the world (confirmed) have a "mild" case of it.

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by Donger

We have 2,500,000 confirmed cases. If the actual infected number is x 10, that's 25,000,000 people. We have a population of 330,000,000

That 13.2% which is nowhere near herd immunity.

Yeah but if it was 1 to 23 ratio like stated above it would be close to 60Million. Maybe NY is the decline because of herd immunity, and not anything they have or havent done. If the 1 out of 23 cases etc that put NY at close to 10 million cases already.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

Thats why im asking about herd immunity because if this was true wouldn't w be getting close? Maybe not in all places but like NY were they have 400k cases confirmed.

Not only that but think about how that would skew all of the other numbers? I mean it's one thing to say 19k people got it and 1k died. It's another to say 445k got it and 1k died.

That's isn't to downplay the deaths but it does provide perspective.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

Yeah but if it was 1 to 23 ratio like stated above it would be close to 60Million.

18% which also isn't anywhere near it.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by eDave

He said 50.

Yes, he did. I'm not sure where the 35 states came from, but it's not accurate.

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by Donger

18% which also isn't anywhere near it.

What % is herd immunity at? Does geographical distances and population density not change that %?

[Bugeater]

Ok, how about everyone in the ****ing country takes a giant shit in a box and sends it to China for foisting this bullshit on to us?

Can we all get behind that?

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

Yeah but if it was 1 to 23 ratio like stated above it would be close to 60Million. Maybe NY is the decline because of herd immunity, and not anything they have or havent done. If the 1 out of 23 cases etc that put NY at close to 10 million cases already.

if the 23 number is for the whole country then yes, would have roughly 60mil cases, give or take which would be about 1/6ish of our population.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Bugeater

Ok, how about everyone in the ****ing country takes a giant shit in a box and sends it to China for foisting this bullshit on to us?

Can we all get behind that?

Now you're being insensitive.....

[phisherman]

Originally Posted by Donger

Ahh, good catch. That was before I was able to tune in. I thought you were referring to the part where he said that 34 states were seeing stability.

I would agree that Pence's line that you're referring to is junk as well.

But also, I thought that what Burx and Fauci were talking about was informative. They highlighted some good statistics and also some bad. Their general tone was nowhere as emotional as many on here. Kinda refreshing, to be honest.

[O.city]

We don't know where or what "number" we have to get to for Herd Immunity. You own't know that til your past it.

I would guess places like NYC and Italy have hit it or are pretty close though.