***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by eDave

Ronazona

Cases: 7-Day avg continues to rise, both in cases and deaths. This is the highest death total added in a single report (1st triple digit day), likely catching up for the lag in death reporting over the last two days.

Testing: PCR Testing dropped by about 2.5K since yesterday.

Spread: Overall PCR positive test percentage went up from 13.4% to 13.6% (based on 628K tests, up from a 6.6% low) and the average for this week is 19% (but only based on 748 cases, down from 22% the previous week).

Hospital Utilization: COVID Hospitalizations went up 4.5% (another all time high). ICU beds for COVID patients went up 3.5% (Overall ICU bed usage went up 89% to 90%). Ventilators in use for COVID went up 2%. Intubations for Respiratory Distress stayed in triple digits (111).

Data Source: ADHS

CHARTS

Considering they only reported 1 death yesterday I would say there was a bit of a backlog.

[eDave]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Considering they only reported 1 death yesterday I would say there was a bit of a backlog.

Yup. I don't post Monday numbers cause they mean dick.

[loochy]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

A friend posted this about his fiancee's friend:



Yes it's anecdotal. But there are lots of similar stories out there. Until I know the odds of this happening are vanishingly small, it will continue to be my biggest concern.

The odds ARE vanishingly small...how many people do you know that have had this happen? How many people have you READ about that have had this happen?

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by eDave

Yup. I don't post Monday numbers cause they mean dick.

Generally speaking they do if you compare them to the same day a week prior. Yesterday for AZ though was a clear anomaly.

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by loochy

The odds ARE vanishingly small...how many people do you know that have had this happen? How many people have you READ about that have had this happen?

I know 4 people who have had covid, and one is still having intestinal issues months later. So I may actually know one. But nothing as bad as what I posted.

I've read about dozens. It's definitely happening. It's all over medical journals. Plenty of first-person testimonials. Some people are having very serious long-term consequences. Of course we're not going to have good data on this yet since this virus is brand new. Long term health issues are a bigger lag than even deaths. But you really have to stick your head in the sand to pretend this isn't a thing.

So how do you know the odds are vanishingly small? Because you want it to be? Would you risk a 1-2% chance of this happening if you catch covid? I'd rather not.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

Zero.

Dozens.

How do you know the odds are vanishingly small? Because you want it to be? Would you risk a 1-2% chance of this happening if you catch covid? I'd rather not.

So you have a 98% - 99% chance of this not happening. Your expectation of 100% safety is pretty much impossible to ever achieve with Covid or anything else in life for that matter.

[loochy]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

What? Just because I don't know someone personally, that makes it vanishingly small? What kind of logic is that? I also don't know anyone who's died of covid. But I know it happens.

Still I know 4 people who have had covid, and one is still having intestinal issues months later. So possibly one.

I've read about dozens. It's definitely happening.

How do you know the odds are vanishingly small? Because you want it to be? Would you risk a 1-2% chance of this happening if you catch covid? I'd rather not.

You've read about dozens. If tons of people had it, you'd be reading about way more than dozens.

[Mr_Tomahawk]

Hey how's everyone doing here?

[loochy]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

What? Just because I don't know someone personally, that makes it vanishingly small? What kind of logic is that? I also don't know anyone who's died of covid. But I know it happens.

I know 4 people who have had covid, and one is still having intestinal issues months later. So I may actually know one. But nothing as bad as what I posted.

I've read about dozens. It's definitely happening. It's all over medical journals. Plenty of first-person testimonials. Some people are having very serious long-term consequences.

So how do you know the odds are vanishingly small? Because you want it to be? Would you risk a 1-2% chance of this happening if you catch covid? I'd rather not.

You remind me of my son when there's a thunderstorm. "DADDY WILL TEHRE BE A TORNADO? Daddy, I'm scared."

No buddy, there probably won't be a tornado...but there could be one. If there is one, it probably won't be here. If it is here, it probably won't do much damage anyway. If it does do damage, we'll probably be safe in the hall by the laundry room.

Yes, it could happen. Just take shelter when you need to and don't worry about it. (i.e. wear a mask, keep your space, be prudent but go ahead and live life and stop being afraid) If it still gets you then it gets you and there probably wasn't anything you could do about it anyway.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by Mr_Tomahawk

Hey how's everyone doing here?

Thread has Covid

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by loochy

You've read about dozens. If tons of people had it, you'd be reading about way more than dozens.

This is ridiculous. You expect every single person to get their own article? Plenty of articles mention more than one person. You're making up a nonsensical standard.

https://www.healthrising.org/blog/20...igue-syndrome/

Yesterday’s Business Insider story, “Meet the ‘long-haulers’: A growing chorus of coronavirus patients have had symptoms for more than 100 days”, noted that many “long-haulers” are younger and were never hospitalized. Normal blood tests, and tests indicating that they’ve cleared the infection, have left them medical mysteries to the medical profession. While the story does mention infectious mononucleosis, it does not mention ME/CFS.

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...d-symptoms-who

While that may be the case for some people who get Covid-19, emerging medical research as well as anecdotal evidence from recovery support groups suggest that many survivors of “mild” Covid-19 are not so lucky. They experience lasting side-effects, and doctors are still trying to understand the ramifications.

Some of these side effects can be fatal. According to Dr Christopher Kellner, a professor of neurosurgery at Mount Sinai hospital in New York, “mild” cases of Covid-19 in which the patient was not hospitalized for the virus have been linked to blood clotting and severe strokes in people as young as 30. In May, Kellner told Healthline that Mount Sinai had implemented a plan to give anticoagulant drugs to people with Covid-19 to prevent the strokes they were seeing in “younger patients with no or mild symptoms”.

Doctors now know that Covid-19 not only affects the lungs and blood, but kidneys, liver and brain – the last potentially resulting in chronic fatigue and depression, among other symptoms. Although the virus is not yet old enough for long-term effects on those organs to be well understood, they may manifest regardless of whether a patient ever required hospitalization, hindering their recovery process.

Another troubling phenomenon now coming into focus is that of “long-haul” Covid-19 sufferers – people whose experience of the illness has lasted months. For a Dutch report published earlier this month (an excerpt is translated here) researchers surveyed 1,622 Covid-19 patients with an average age of 53, who reported a number of enduring symptoms, including intense fatigue (88%) persistent shortness of breath (75%) and chest pressure (45%). Ninety-one per cent of the patients weren’t hospitalized, suggesting they suffered these side-effects despite their cases of Covid-19 qualifying as “mild”. While 85% of the surveyed patients considered themselves generally healthy before having Covid-19, only 6% still did so one month or more after getting the virus.

So there's 1,622 right there that they rounded up just for a survey. Doesn't sound vanishingly small.

Feel free to go out there and be the guinea pig for how common this really is. I'll wait for more data to come in.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by loochy

You remind me of my son when there's a thunderstorm. "DADDY WILL TEHRE BE A TORNADO? Daddy, I'm scared."

No buddy, there probably won't be a tornado...but there could be one. If there is one, it probably won't be here. If it is here, it probably won't do much damage anyway. If it does do damage, we'll probably be safe in the hall by the laundry room.

Yes, it could happen. Just take shelter when you need to and don't worry about it. (i.e. wear a mask, keep your space, be prudent but go ahead and live life and stop being afraid)

Why would you need to take shelter the odds of dying to a tornado or lighting strike are pretty low?

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

This is ridiculous. You expect every single person to get their own article?

Plenty of articles mention more than one person.

You're making up a nonsensical standard.

I would have to say you are as well. If 1,000 people had residual damage or longer lasting symptoms out of the presumed 25 million people who have had this then you are still looking a ridiculously low percentage of like .004% or something. Even if you took the known cases at face value it would be .04%.

At face value you would have to have at least 250,000 people with damage like this to reach the 1% mark. And using the presumed cases you would have to have 2.5 million.

Let's just keep some perspective.

[loochy]

Originally Posted by Monticore

Why would you need to take shelter the odds of dying to a tornado or lighting strike are pretty low?

If it's happening near you then take appropriate precautions. If it's still just a thunderstorm then take a chill pill and don't be scared. Just pay attention.

I'm not anti distancing or anti mask.

I'm anti fear.

So quit trying to pin me to a particular side of your political argument.

[loochy]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

This is ridiculous. You expect every single person to get their own article? Plenty of articles mention more than one person. You're making up a nonsensical standard.

https://www.healthrising.org/blog/20...igue-syndrome/



https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...d-symptoms-who





So there's 1,622 right there that they rounded up just for a survey. Doesn't sound vanishingly small.

Feel free to go out there and be the guinea pig for how common this really is. I'll wait for more data to come in.

Who said anything about being a guinea pig. I was just talking about quit being so scared of things that are beyond your control. Just pay attention to what you are doing that that's the best you can do.