***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[TLO]

Coronavirus may have arrived in the US from China, but most of the spread was domestic, model suggests
From CNN’s Naomi Thomas

Coronavirus was probably spreading widely across the US in February, new modeling data suggests, and it only took a few imported cases from other countries to set off rapid spread inside the borders.

While direct imports from China and other countries may have been responsible for the early introduction of Covid-19 to the US, most spread was state to state, researchers led by a team at Northeastern University in Boston reported.

“We estimate widespread community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in February, 2020,” a team led by Northeastern’s Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems wrote on MedRxiv, a pre-print server. Their work has not been peer-reviewed.

“Our results indicate that many states were seeded from domestic sources rather than international,” they wrote. “For most of the continental states, the largest contribution of imported infections arrived through domestic travel flows.”
The US announced restrictions on travel from China on Jan. 31. The researchers say their modeling study suggests the restrictions came far too late.

“Importations from mainland China may be relevant in seeding the epidemic in January, but then play a small role in the COVID-19 expansion in the US because of the travel restrictions imposed to/from mainland China after January 23, 2020,” they wrote.

“Domestic sources account for 85% of the virus introductions in Nebraska, 86% in New Mexico, 86% in Arkansas, and 95% in North Dakota,” they added.
The model jibes with evidence from several studies that suggest there were already a significant number of infections in the US by the time the travel restrictions were announced on January 31, the researchers wrote.

[O.city]

https://twitter.com/psampathkumarmd/...547269122?s=21

Good thread here

[O.city]

Originally Posted by TLO

Speaking of immunity - has anyone seen anything on how long antibodies/t-cell response, etc, provides protection? Last I knew they still weren't sure.

T cell mediated would be a while.

People are getting hung up on antibodies waning. They always do. That’s why we have memory B cells

[TLO]

Originally Posted by O.city

https://twitter.com/psampathkumarmd/...547269122?s=21

Good thread here

Speaking of - I found this on Reddit earlier today.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-0389-z

[lewdog]

How does herd immunity work if they’re showing antibody disappearance between 1-4 months for many people in cross sectional studies that also show you can get reinfected?

[O.city]

Originally Posted by lewdog

How does herd immunity work if they’re showing antibody disappearance between 1-4 months for many people in cross sectional studies that also show you can get reinfected?

We don’t always keep making antibodies for things once we’ve cleared them. We have memory cells that will ramp up and make them if we encounter said antigen again.

Up to this point, there hasn’t been proven reinfection that I’ve seen or read. That would go against everything we have so far in virology for the most part. Immunity may wane but I would imagine it’ll last atleast a year or so and even then you may be able to get it again but it would be very mild

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by O.city

We don’t always keep making antibodies for things once we’ve cleared them. We have memory cells that will ramp up and make them if we encounter said antigen again.

Up to this point, there hasn’t been proven reinfection that I’ve seen or read. That would go against everything we have so far in virology for the most part. Immunity may wane but I would imagine it’ll last atleast a year or so and even then you may be able to get it again but it would be very mild

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....11.20086439v2

[Chief Pagan]

Originally Posted by chiefzilla999

We need to build up the herd and those that wish to isolate may.

If you take that approach, the economy will be depressed for a long time.

Sure, some people will go back to normal, but many won't.

Airline travel was never shut down and customers are way down. Vegas opened up and casinos are empty enough they aren't making money. Travel and jobs related to it are, or at least were, a big part of the economy.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by lewdog

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....11.20086439v2

Interesting

[Chief Roundup]

Originally Posted by lewdog

How does herd immunity work if they’re showing antibody disappearance between 1-4 months for many people in cross sectional studies that also show you can get reinfected?

Originally Posted by O.city

We don’t always keep making antibodies for things once we’ve cleared them. We have memory cells that will ramp up and make them if we encounter said antigen again.

Up to this point, there hasn’t been proven reinfection that I’ve seen or read. That would go against everything we have so far in virology for the most part. Immunity may wane but I would imagine it’ll last atleast a year or so and even then you may be able to get it again but it would be very mild

I have wondered about this stuff also. Since Covid-19 is a Coronavirus just like Flu A and Flu B we do not have immunity and can be reinfected what seems fairly soon what makes Covid-19 different?

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Chief Roundup

I have wondered about this stuff also. Since Covid-19 is a Coronavirus just like Flu A and Flu B we do not have immunity and can be reinfected what seems fairly soon what makes Covid-19 different?

Flu a and b aren’t corona viruses. There are 3 or 4 corona viruses in circulation regularly that do cause colds but Influenza is Different

[Chief Roundup]

Originally Posted by O.city

Flu a and b aren’t corona viruses. There are 3 or 4 corona viruses in circulation regularly that do cause colds but Influenza is Different

Oh ok then those are Rhinoviruses while the common cold is the coronavirus that there is no immunity to that I am thinking about.

[BryanBusby]

Originally Posted by eDave

$2/hr. 1/2 clientele. Risk of getting shut down again and refiling (and waiting, and waiting). All for a shot at getting sick and dying. No thanks.

Once you clear that first hurdle you've got a window that's open for multiple months to claim unemployment without any additional waiting week.

So you could in theory go back to work shortly, get laid off and directly go back to drawing unemployment.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by O.city

Interesting

Interesting.....as in possibly not good.

[Kidd Lex]

Originally Posted by Chief Roundup

Oh ok then those are Rhinoviruses while the common cold is the coronavirus that there is no immunity to that I am thinking about.

You do get immunity to the common cold, but it usually only lasts 12-18 months. I’d guess Covid-19 is similar to SARS in that the worse the infection the longer the immunity. For asymptomatic people that’s probably only 12-18 months, but also means a reinfection would likely be mild as well. Vaccine will help, but it’s going to be like the Manhattan project trying to vaccinate the entire world before immunity wanes. Will be interesting, but the Science is still developing. One cool thing I read is that the Oxford vaccine is helping people develop three times the amount of antibodies as a typical community spread Covid case. I’d assume one of these vaccines is going to provide a response akin to 3-5 plus years of immunity. That would be enough to eradicate this damn virus.