***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Donger]

Originally Posted by TLO

So if a certain region were able to get the RO below 0, you'd expect cases to go away all together? Or start to slow down at least, correct?

Getting the R0 below 1 means the virus isn't spreading beyond the infected person and infections therefore dry up.

An example of R2, and why it's not a good thing:

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Donger

Getting the R0 below 1 means the virus isn't spreading beyond the infected person and infections therefore dry up.

An example of R2, and why it's not a good thing:

I ask because areas in Missouri are currently around 0.59 R0. Yet we're still seeing cases each day. They haven't spiked dramatically, but they're still there.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by TLO

I ask because areas in Missouri are currently around 0.59 R0. Yet we're still seeing cases each day. They haven't spiked dramatically, but they're still there.

Then the R0 isn't truly below 1 in those areas.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Donger

Then the R0 isn't truly below 1 in those areas.

Where I got confused was the governer said on Thursday "we're really not seeing community transmission in Northwest or Northeast Missouri". We did have the virus impact one of our nursing homes recently that has resulted in 60+ cases. So I guess I'm not fully understanding how RO can be an effective tool when you see an outbreak in one facility - that's obviously going to impact the RO, even though it doesn't seem like a true representation of what's happening in the community.

[Halfcan]

Originally Posted by tk13

Antibody tests are not being counted as official cases, at least in the states I've seen. What you're talking about here are completely different than the nose swab or spit tests that you're seeing people in line for. The case counts you're seeing are from those, and are determining people who actively have it.

Antibody tests are to determine if possibly you've had it in the past and missed it because you didn't go get the nose swab, but there's some debate over how accurate they are.

Thank you! This is what I wanted to know- I guess I should have stated it better in the first place.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by TLO

Where I got confused was the governer said on Thursday "we're really not seeing community transmission in Northwest or Northeast Missouri". We did have the virus impact one of our nursing homes recently that has resulted in 60+ cases. So I guess I'm not fully understanding how RO can be an effective tool when you see an outbreak in one facility - that's obviously going to impact the RO, even though it doesn't seem like a true representation of what's happening in the community.

Yes, an outbreak will affect the R0 figure in a negative way. The goal is to get it below 1 everywhere.

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by Donger

Yes, an outbreak will affect the R0 figure in a negative way. The goal is to get it below 1 everywhere.

I feel like the unstated goal at this point is to get to herd immunity with like 800k dead.

The bright side is that if none of the vaccines work we'll be in better shape than anyone else. (Assuming antibody or T-cell immunity lasts as least as long as cold/flu and maybe even if you do catch it a second time, you fight it off much easier.)

[TLO]

This was in Dong's CDC post from earlier, but this is interesting.

CDC now estimates that 40% of people infected with Covid-19 don't have any symptoms
From CNN's Gisela Crespo and Arman Azad

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has updated guidance meant for public health officials and mathematical modelers, which now estimates that 40% of people infected with Covid-19 show no symptoms.

Back in May, the CDC created five "Covid-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios," using data to provide a range of possible situations for Covid-19 in the US. The updated scenarios are based on new data the agency received through June 29. The agency also underscores these estimates are subject to change as more information becomes available, and exact numbers are uncertain.

Under the CDC's "current best estimate," 40% of people with Covid-19 are asymptomatic. This number is up from the 35% the agency estimated on May 20. The percent of asymptomatic cases remains uncertain, the CDC emphasized.

The CDC is now including an infection fatality ratio, which takes into account both symptomatic and asymptomatic cases (in the estimates published in May, the agency only included fatality ratio for symptomatic cases). Under the "best estimate" scenario, the infection fatality ratio is 0.65%, meaning that 0.65% of people infected with Covid-19 are thought to die.

More insight: About half of Covid-19 transmissions happen before people get sick; this is up from the 40% estimate in May.

Under the CDC's current "best estimate," the transmissibility of the virus from asymptomatic people -- in comparison to people with no symptoms -- is now 75%, down from 100%. However, the agency said this "remains highly uncertain as asymptomatic cases are difficult to identify and transmission is difficult to observe and quantify."

The agency warns this information is "intended to support public health preparedness and planning."

[O.city]

https://twitter.com/frankfurtzack/st...062002690?s=21

Interesting read don’t know the validity of it sograin of salt

[lewdog]

I wish I understood more than basic immunology.

I took an infectious disease course in college but that was 15 years ago......

[O.city]

Originally Posted by lewdog

I wish I understood more than basic immunology.

I took an infectious disease course in college but that was 15 years ago......

You’ve got it all at your fingertips

Get goin

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by O.city

You’ve got it all at your fingertips

Get goin

Yeah I’ve been reading.

Just seems with this virus you can’t draw any conclusions about immunity yet, correct.

Had a friend who was very sick in February just do the antibodies. He was positive for them. That’s pretty far out!

[O.city]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Yeah I’ve been reading.

Just seems with this virus you can’t draw any conclusions about immunity yet, correct.

Had a friend who was very sick in February just do the antibodies. He was positive for them. That’s pretty far out!

Just go off the info we have. Based on everything else we know about virology there will be some immunity. How long we don’t know for sure.

But even if it wanes, as long as you don’t get big mutations, you’ll have some immunity. Likely just keep getting milder and milder cases as we go

[TLO]

CDC added 18,693 cases beyond our most conservative lag curve to date. Then stated we're close to end of pandemic. Appears to be a backlog clearing & one-time event?

Two things
1. At negative fatalities vs history
2. Reserve of 50,295 fatalities exists for legacy data laundering pic.twitter.com/2TAwqAppKw

— Ethical Skeptic ☀ (@EthicalSkeptic) July 11, 2020

[TLO]

What is occurring right now is, the reserve CDC date-cataloged deaths, which are not yet reported by the states, are being reported by the states over time (hence the Gompertz arrival). While this might be academically/bureaucratically proper, it is morally & ethically bankrupt. pic.twitter.com/QfZ90mm8rs

— Ethical Skeptic ☀ (@EthicalSkeptic) July 11, 2020