***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by O.city

More cases equal more deaths pete this isn’t hard man. Individually, it may be mild illness for however many, but it’s not for some. So higher case counts mean more deaths.

I never said they didn't....read what I said and don't put words in my mouth which is what you are doing. Just because you get it doesn't mean you will die. So cases do not necessarily = death on a 1-1 ratio. In fact we are seeing that ratio improve favorably.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by petegz28

I never said they didn't....read what I said and don't put words in my mouth which is what you are doing. Just because you get it doesn't mean you will die. So cases do not necessarily = death on a 1-1 ratio. In fact we are seeing that ratio improve favorably.

No individually it’s doesn’t mean you will die. Statistically, the more cases there are, the more deaths there will be. If IFR is 0.25, 0.25 of 100k is more than 0.25 of 50k

So that’s why cases matter

[O.city]

Originally Posted by petegz28

We might be but cases is not what matters. That's the point. What does cases translate too? I mean no one freaks out when "everyone is getting the flu" because we know it means you will get sick and be back to normal. At some point that is going to happen with Covid as well.

So while there is obviously a rise in cases we have to really keep perspective on what that means. I mean the upward move in deaths was a bit expected but also a bit surprising that is isn't worse to be honest. Hopefully we are seeing this thing tame itself down some.

I went to a rural public school so my reading isn’t the beat but that first sentence seems to me to say “cases doesn’t matter”

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by O.city

No individually it’s doesn’t mean you will die. Statistically, the more cases there are, the more deaths there will be. If IFR is 0.25, 0.25 of 100k is more than 0.25 of 50k

So that’s why cases matter

Meh, you aren't reading what I said. What was my first post? Considering the surge in cases we are not seeing a proportional rise in deaths thus far.

What you need to understand is IFR was say at .5 and is now at .25 so.....there ya go

[O.city]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Meh, you aren't reading what I said. What was my first post? Considering the surge in cases we are not seeing a proportional rise in deaths thus far.

What you need to understand is IFR was say at .5 and is now at .25 so.....there ya go

If cases keep going up it will offset the lower IFR. Correct?

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by O.city

If cases keep going up it will offset the lower IFR. Correct?

Maybe. What if less and less people die as cases go up? You are acting like that cases are going or can go up infinitely when at some point you reach a breaking point that they can't go up at this rate anymore.


You post all this stuff about Sweden and then seem to sorta forget the lessons learned there.

Don't even try to go ?onger on me

[O.city]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Maybe. What if less and less people die as cases go up? You are acting like that cases are going or can go up infinitely when at some point you reach a breaking point that they can't go up at this rate anymore.


You post all this stuff about Sweden and then seem to sorta forget the lessons learned there.

Don't even try to go ?onger on me

Sweden basically is the size of what, the northeast? We’re gonna have to go thru that everywhere.

Seems to be the route we’re taking at this point

[dlphg9]

Originally Posted by O.city

Sweden basically is the size of what, the northeast? We’re gonna have to go thru that everywhere.

Seems to be the route we’re taking at this point

Im pretty sure it's the size of Rhoade Island

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by O.city

Sweden basically is the size of what, the northeast? We’re gonna have to go thru that everywhere.

Seems to be the route we’re taking at this point

Perhaps but that doesn't change the premise does it?

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by dlphg9

Im pretty sure it's the size of Rhoade Island

So's your face

[O.city]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Perhaps but that doesn't change the premise does it?

It’s gonna have deaths at about that rate

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by O.city

It’s gonna have deaths at about that rate

Maybe, maybe not. We aren't seeing that here locally and there is nothing that says we have too either.

[petegz28]

Researchers identify enzyme that helps COVID-19 evade immune system

https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2020...4101595596610/

July 24 (UPI) -- Researchers announced Friday that they have discovered an enzyme that helps COVID-19 enter cells in the human body, allowing the infection to grow.

Called non-structural protein 16, or nsp16, the enzyme is produced by the new coronavirus and acts as a "camouflage," tricking human cells into thinking that the virus is "part of its own code and not foreign," the scientists said in an article published Friday by the journal Nature Communications.

The hope is that the enzyme will provide a target for antiviral drugs designed to cure COVID-19, they said.

"Our work not only enhances basic understanding of this particular pathway, but it provides an opportunity to develop novel antivirals against COVID-19 and emerging coronaviral illnesses in future," co-author Yogesh Gupta told UPI.

These drugs would "block the growth" of the coronavirus in the human body, said Gupta, an assistant professor of biochemistry and structural biology at the University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio.

COVID-19 uses nsp16 to disguise its RNA so that human cells can't distinguish the virus's RNA from its own -- allowing the coronavirus to replicate and spread through the body, Gupta said.

"The virus effectively uses this pathway to go undetected and protect its genetic material, while at the same time continuing to grow inside the host body," he said.

In addition to describing its role in the development of COVID-19, Gupta and his team also defined the 3D structure of nsp16. This information can be used by scientists to design antiviral drugs for the disease, they said.

These new drugs would be designed to block nsp16 from disguising its RNA, meaning the human immune system would see the virus as foreign and attack it, according to the researchers.

The findings by Gupta and his colleagues add to research published by the journal Science on July 17, which suggested that another non-structural protein created by the new coronavirus, nsp1, also might work to block the human body's immune system response.

"Viruses need to evade or counteract the immune system to establish an infection," the co-author of the earlier study, Konstantin M. J. Sparrer, told UPI.

"Normally, any infection would trigger the expression of hundreds of antiviral proteins," said Sparrer, a researcher at the Institute of Molecular Virology at Ulm University Medical Center in Germany.

He said that because of nsp1, the coronavirus "manipulates its host to promote its own replication, shutting down ... the innate immune system in the process."

[BWillie]

Big family get togethers need to stop.

There is also no reason whatsoever for restaurants to be open right now except for carry out. Packing 300 ppl in a building all eating and laughing and talking etc. Cant eat with masks on.

Outside activities without large groups more reasonable.

We could even have a chance to hitting 500k deaths in the next 6 months. We haven't even really had to deal with this thing at the peak of the cold and flu season, either.

[BWillie]

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisiona...9bhg-hcku/data

This is the data from when we were at 131k deaths (were at around 148k now)

36 people 15 years or under had died from Covid-19.

190 people 16 years old to 24 years old.

It appears it would be correct to say that Covid-19 is less fatal than the 2010 H1N1 outbreak in children and teens.

About 105k deaths of ppl 65+ years old of the 131k sampled.

It IS a virus older people should be gravely AFRAID of.

It IS a virus children and teens should not be very afraid of at least to their own health.

Look at how Covid becomes EXPONENTIALLY more dangerous as one ages compared to influenza.