***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[O.city]

Looks like Florida has rolled over and is on the way down.

Texas too.

Some signs on California potentially getting on a down trend but it’s early.

Missouri isn’t looking too good, may be a rough month ahead

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

Projection!

Of course you changed the subject because you cannot explain why 100,000 are not dead without lockdown.

If you wonder why more people don't respond to you, it's because people who say stuff like this haven't really looked into what Sweden's people did. They didn't have mandatory lockdowns to the extent of their neighbors, but their actual citizens arguably locked down better than we did in the U.S.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

Projection!

Of course you changed the subject because you cannot explain why 100,000 are not dead without lockdown.

You've yet to prove that Imperial or IHME predicted 100,000 Swedish deaths.

Are you going to, or not?

[LongSufferingToady]

Originally Posted by KurtCobain

Oh no we're going to catch colds at an alarming rate! Hide your great great great grandmas!

This is not a cold. My daughter-in-law's grandparents (in Houston) are in their mid-80s. They already have health issues. This is one virus they don't need because it is very virulent for their age group.

So they stayed home and self-quarantined. Not even going to church. And they've been doing this for months.

A friend of theirs, from church, decided to check on them about 10 days ago. And they let him in their house! Because he was from church and that can't be bad right?

And now Lauren's grandparents are in the ICU with COVID19, in Houston.

We're hoping and praying for them.

But this is NOT a common cold.

[Coach]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

Projection!

Of course you changed the subject because you cannot explain why 100,000 are not dead without lockdown.

You need to provide credible evidence before shooting off comments like this.

Otherwise, nobody's going to take you seriously.

Just sayin'.

[Donger]

THREAD: You may have seen false claims that Imperial COVID-19 "modelling envisaged Sweden paying a heavy price for its rejection of lockdown, with 40,000 Covid deaths by 1 May and almost 100,000 by June". Our researchers made no such prediction

— Imperial College (@imperialcollege) May 6, 2020

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by Donger

THREAD: You may have seen false claims that Imperial COVID-19 "modelling envisaged Sweden paying a heavy price for its rejection of lockdown, with 40,000 Covid deaths by 1 May and almost 100,000 by June". Our researchers made no such prediction

— Imperial College (@imperialcollege) May 6, 2020

They predicted deaths for US at 2.2 million deaths and UK with 510,000 dead. Using their model the University of Upsalla in Sweden used their same model to predict deaths in Sweden without lockdown. This study was used by lockdown proponents in Sweden.

So technically, Ferguson didn't predict Sweden but his model could easily be tested there as it was rather simple to plug in .9 IFR and 80percent presumed infected. Remember, if your model can't be replicated its useless.

And how did Fergusons model work?

96000 dead by June?

Nope. About 6 thousand.
https://www.aier.org/article/imperia...erous-results/

The fact that Imperial College tweeted that half truth is incredible. It reminds me of the people who say Sweden admits their total strategy was wrong.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

They predicted deaths for US at 2.2 million deaths and UK with 510,000 dead. Using their model the University of Upsalla in Sweden used their same model to predict deaths in Sweden without lockdown. This study was used by lockdown proponents in Sweden.

Yes. And the task force estimated 1 to 2 million dead here WITHOUT mitigation. We did mitigate, so we'll never know if that was accurate or not. They also estimated 100,000 to 240,000 dead WITH mitigation efforts. Which, as you know, is accurate.

Why do you ignore that fact?

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

So technically, Ferguson didn't predict Sweden

There you go.

[dlphg9]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

They predicted deaths for US at 2.2 million deaths and UK with 510,000 dead. Using their model the University of Upsalla in Sweden used their same model to predict deaths in Sweden without lockdown. This study was used by lockdown proponents in Sweden.

So technically, Ferguson didn't predict Sweden but his model could easily be tested there as it was rather simple to plug in .9 IFR and 80percent presumed infected. Remember, if your model can't be replicated its useless.

And how did Fergusons model work?

96000 dead by June?

Nope. About 6 thousand.
https://www.aier.org/article/imperia...erous-results/

The fact that Imperial College tweeted that half truth is incredible. It reminds me of the people who say Sweden admits their total strategy was wrong.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sour...3WzRIFasqO0AVE

The model that Upsalla used "was based on work by Ferguson". That is not the same things as using the same model and its definitely not the same as Ferguson predicting Sweden's deaths. So youre wrong and can't think for yourself.

[PAChiefsGuy]

Originally Posted by LongSufferingToady

This is not a cold. My daughter-in-law's grandparents (in Houston) are in their mid-80s. They already have health issues. This is one virus they don't need because it is very virulent for their age group.

So they stayed home and self-quarantined. Not even going to church. And they've been doing this for months.

A friend of theirs, from church, decided to check on them about 10 days ago. And they let him in their house! Because he was from church and that can't be bad right?

And now Lauren's grandparents are in the ICU with COVID19, in Houston.

We're hoping and praying for them.

But this is NOT a common cold.

Unbelievable some people still think this is a common cold... Ignorance is still very prevalent in America unfortunately.

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by dlphg9

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sour...3WzRIFasqO0AVE

The model that Upsalla used "was based on work by Ferguson". That is not the same things as using the same model and its definitely not the same as Ferguson predicting Sweden's deaths. So youre wrong and can't think for yourself.

Fergusons model depended on IFR of .9 and 80% infection of the entire population. Rather simple to test.

The fact that you dont understand how a model can be tested shows you might need to start thinking for yourself.

[kcxiv]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

Unbelievable some people still think this is a common cold... Ignorance is still very prevalent in America unfortunately.

Yep, its shocking that so many people are hard headed! People just flat out give no ****s! Its just sad and disappointing.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by O.city

Looks like Florida has rolled over and is on the way down.

Texas too.

Some signs on California potentially getting on a down trend but it’s early.

Missouri isn’t looking too good, may be a rough month ahead

Waiting for today's DHSS update but it looks like St Louis is really taking the brunt of it right now. They've been hit the hardest throughout the state and it looks like it's going to continue.

[stumppy]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

Michael Levitt also made a prediction. That the virus would cause 1 month excess death. The Doomers and Neil Ferguson, Royal Society said 1 year excess deaths.

We can look at Sweden and see the Doomers/ Lockdowners were dead wrong.

You know, every time you post a bunch of bullshit you'll get called on it in this thread.
JFC, the idiots come crawling out of the woodwork around here.

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by stumppy

You know, every time you post a bunch of bullshit you'll get called on it in this thread.
JFC, the idiots come crawling out of the woodwork around here.

And you posted nothing but a string of insults. Thats how you know when someone has lost the argument. Childish behavior like yours.