***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Donger

The task force guidelines were specific. 10 to 14 days of new case growth decline.

Do/did you disagree with that trigger for the beginning of phased re-opening?

Not necessarily, that was how it should have been done, but I also recognize why it wasn't.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Pants

I don't understand what you're suggesting. Of all the people on this forum, I figured you would understand public health more than basically anyone.

I guess in a vacuum and as a general statement, your post makes sense. It makes zero sense in real life applications, however.

It's virtually impossible to mitigate the spread of the virus at home. This is why you want to stop it from making it there to begin with.

I can't believe I actually have to type that.

Agenda clouding reason and logic.

[Fish]

Originally Posted by O.city

When you go to the most extreme thing first, you don't know what to revise to reduce the rate.

Hence where we are now.

Arizona is a prime example of it.

I would argue that we didn't really go to the most extreme.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by O.city

Not necessarily, that was how it should have been done, but I also recognize why it wasn't.

It was done in New York, and it worked.

It wasn't done in other states, and it didn't work.

That's what the data show.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Pants

I don't understand what you're suggesting. Of all the people on this forum, I figured you would understand public health more than basically anyone.

I guess in a vacuum and as a general statement, your post makes sense. It makes zero sense in real life applications, however.

It's virtually impossible to mitigate the spread of the virus at home. This is why you want to stop it from making it there to begin with.

I can't believe I actually have to type that.

Ideally, yes. You stop it from ever getting in there.

With where we were and are, thats not possible. Because of transmission dynamics of this thing, to outrun the lag times, you're gonna have to isolate people from their families and such if you really want to mitigate it or truly suppress it. It's public health 101, which is why the WHO initially recommended it.

Public health has to weigh all aspects of this thing though. It's not feasible here like it is in say China for obvious reasons though.

Again, we're forced to deal with the hand we are being dealt here. It's a tightrope.

[DaFace]

Donger and Pete, do you guys work for a living? If I assume that you post once for every 3 minutes you're on here, you're up to around 140 and 190 hours of posting in this thread, respectively (and that's likely being conservative).

I just don't understand how you guys have so much time to spend in dominating the discussion in this thread.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Donger

It was done in New York, and it worked.

It wasn't done in other states, and it didn't work.

That's what the data show.

There's evidence that it isn't that whats keeping things down there as much as it is they're at some level of immunity. Same as other hard hit areas around the world.

So no, thats not necessarily what the "data shows".

[O.city]

A few weeks ago a study from SK got lots of attention for reportedly showed children aged 10 - 19 were just as, or more infectious than adults with #COVID19

But that was not the whole story

This study on the very same children shows whyhttps://t.co/6cZ4ruNAEc

1/6

— Alasdair Munro (@apsmunro) August 10, 2020

Dirk here's a good breakdown on the SK study.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Fish

Better compliance to recommendations of medical experts.
How long would depend on how well it worked.
Impossible to say, but better than what we've got now.

In other words you don't really know

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Pants

I don't understand what you're suggesting. Of all the people on this forum, I figured you would understand public health more than basically anyone.

I guess in a vacuum and as a general statement, your post makes sense. It makes zero sense in real life applications, however.

It's virtually impossible to mitigate the spread of the virus at home. This is why you want to stop it from making it there to begin with.

I can't believe I actually have to type that.

So where do you stop it? How? For how long? Are there ancillary effects to do such? If so what are they? What are the lasting effects of those?

I would say your take is a bit more in a vacuum than OC's.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by O.city

There's evidence that it isn't that whats keeping things down there as much as it is they're at some level of immunity. Same as other hard hit areas around the world.

So no, thats not necessarily what the "data shows".

Ah, you think that New York has achieved herd immunity? Based on what?

[Donger]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Donger and Pete, do you guys work for a living? If I assume that you post once for every 3 minutes you're on here, you're up to around 140 and 190 hours of posting in this thread, respectively (and that's likely being conservative).

I just don't understand how you guys have so much time to spend in dominating the discussion in this thread.

Yes, I do. On a conference call with a client right now.

[Fish]

Originally Posted by petegz28

In other words you don't really know

I don't know. Refer to the experts who are best positioned to make those decisions.

[Pants]

Originally Posted by petegz28

So where do you stop it? How? For how long? Are there ancillary effects to do such? If so what are they? What are the lasting effects of those?

I would say your take is a bit more in a vacuum than OC's.

What is O.city's take and what is my take?

Are you referring to everything he and I have stated so far in this thread of thousands upon thousands of posts or are you referring strictly to me addressing his statement of:

"You wanna stop the spread where the majority of the spread happens, no?"

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Donger

Ah, you think that New York has achieved herd immunity? Based on what?

I don't know that they're fully at it. There's alot of misconceptions about HI though. It doesn't mean there won't be infections. There will be, it's endemic now, there always will be some.

But I think they've hit a certain level of immunity that it's leveled it way off and I'm not sure but what they hadn't gotten close to that before lockdown. It was so widespread and out of control there, they also likely had some over shot of the level, whatever that level is.

It will also be different for every area, so there isn't a set percent for the population as a whole I don't think.

But with how fast they came down and stayed down, along with all the other areas that locked down and some that didnt', I think that there's something going on with immunity around that 20% mark.

We dont' fully understand it yet though, so I don't think it's time to go back to business as usual for sure either.