***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[O.city]

https://twitter.com/youyanggu/status...173534722?s=21

Here’s a good thread about data and things we talked about in here this morning

[TLO]

Originally Posted by O.city

I haven’t found any thing on it yet but does this number include antibody tests as well?

Antibody tests are separated out into a seperate category

Serology Tested Individuals

62,414

Individuals with Positive Serology Results

2,345

% Positive of All Patients Tested by Serology

3.8%

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Fun fact that occurred to me when reading the news today:

The percentage of Lebanon's population that was killed in the explosion last week is...

0.00003% (220/6.849 million)

Based on Marcellus's logic, I'm not sure what the fuss is about.

Did they close the country because of it?

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by O.city

https://twitter.com/youyanggu/status...173534722?s=21

Here’s a good thread about data and things we talked about in here this morning

I wish there was some way of having a place that had a Wave 1 and just saying "remove all restrictions and see what happens" without the risk of...you know...killing people.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I wish there was some way of having a place that had a Wave 1 and just saying "remove all restrictions and see what happens" without the risk of...you know...killing people.

Yeah that would be ideal

But just putting all the pieces together, there’s gotta be some kind of immunity there. Nothing else makes sense to me

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

They are all run by selfish people.

What about retailers with thousands of people going through their doors every day during the height of it? Hey if it fits an agenda...

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

The truth to the matter is by the time this is contained there will be ~200K people roughly 78 years old who will not be around any longer unfortunately. These are mainly people who wouldn't have been around in 3-5 years anyway given the average age of death in the US. Its inarguable there will be a DROP in deaths in the US in the next 3-5 years.

And since Donger brought up the Spanish Flu that killed .65% of the US.



If people do not understand the significant difference then I don't know what else to say.

Its not being cruel or insensitive its just the facts. Death sucks, most of these people were at the end of their life cycle.

We need to worry about the future.

So just so I understand your position what should we be doing about covid?

In regards to the Spanish Flu, the cytokine storm is happening in children with Covid we just have better medical treatments now to identify and stop it. That is what the multi system inflammatory syndrome is caused by.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by O.city

Yeah that would be ideal

But just putting all the pieces together, there’s gotta be some kind of immunity there. Nothing else makes sense to me

Yeah, it has to be. As I've said for a while, the question is just how much. And I don't really know of a way to figure that out without opening up the floodgates somewhere and seeing what happens.

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by Pasta Giant Meatball

What about retailers with thousands of people going through their doors every day during the height of it? Hey if it fits an agenda...

People really needed new home theater systems or the supplies to build custom camper vans.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Yeah, it has to be. As I've said for a while, the question is just how much. And I don't really know of a way to figure that out without opening up the floodgates somewhere and seeing what happens.

I just don’t think people would do it even if you tried. Normal behavior will be slowed people are cautious etc

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

Did they close the country because of it?

If they expected there was a chance of happening again, I'm sure they would have. 9/11 is a better parallel on that one if you really want to try and make a comparison - they shut down airspace until they were confident that the threat had passed. Thankfully, it only took a couple days.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by O.city

I just don’t think people would do it even if you tried. Normal behavior will be slowed people are cautious etc

I don't really know - are there countries out there who have said "**** it" and gone all Leeroy Jenkins on it?

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I don't really know - are there countries out there who have said "**** it" and gone all Leeroy Jenkins on it?

I don't know how reliable this is, but scrolling back and forth on this, it looks like Belarus never did anything major.

https://ourworldindata.org/policy-responses-covid

Hard to make much of it since they appear to have been spared any kind of major "wave 1" at all. They do appear to have voluntarily cut down on going into workplaces, but that's about it:

https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobi..._Report_en.pdf

I'll definitely admit that the link between restrictiveness and spread is a bit dubious when you just look for examples like that.

[Perineum Ripper]

Originally Posted by Donger

One is an historical comparison. The other is not.

One is an accident. The other is not.

So that means the deaths are weighted differently?

[Donger]

Originally Posted by mac459

So that means the deaths are weighted differently?

No, not to me. It's just a comparison between total deaths (so far) between two historical events.