***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[sedated]

Originally Posted by Monticore

Yes predicting the future of a new virus with little to no information about it and millions of variables is difficult

This is the thing that still dumbfounds me. "The 'experts' were wrong about X, so F everything they say!"

[loochy]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Just for the record, here's the IHME model that everyone was using in March. They predicted 82k deaths by August 1, and we managed to double that. Perhaps your memory is a little fuzzy about what "they" were saying.

https://web.archive.org/web/20200331...ealthdata.org/

Well, if we doubled that then they were way off.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by loochy

Well, if we doubled that then they were way off.

Their model sucks ass and I don't think anyone really pays them much attention any more.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Monticore

I have misdiagnosed rare pathology at some that I have never before using my glorified fish finder , still wonder why I am not in jail and doctors still send me patients.

Cause Canada....

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Just for the record, here's the IHME model that everyone was using in March. They predicted 82k deaths by August 1, and we managed to double that. Perhaps your memory is a little fuzzy about what "they" were saying.

https://web.archive.org/web/20200331...ealthdata.org/

I believe they also said 300k deaths by August 1st and at the beginning of July said we would have 600k deaths in the next 6 months. Maybe it wasn't the IHME but I thought it was.

[stumppy]

Greene County with a record 95 new cases today.

[MahomesMagic]

Howard Steen
@HowardSteen4
The use of PCR testing to count ‘cases’ is a major scandal. These tests are not designed as diagnostic tests. They cannot confirm an active infection. See expert witness testimony to this fact from the German Corona Committee evidence gathering.

The Problem of trying to determine SARS-CoV-2 infections using PCR Tests

[lewdog]

16 straight days of 1,000 deaths or more?

I honestly thought we’d be better than that by August.

[Bugeater]

Originally Posted by Donger

It's not semantics. We do know what drives the spread of this bug: humans.

Have a great day.

Welp, guess we need to stop being humans in order to beat this.



I'm really starting to think we haven't a clue as to where most community transmission is happening, or even where it is most likely to happen. So we're clinging to masks as our lifeboat and praying we don't sink.

[KCUnited]

Transmitted by humans /first

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by lewdog

16 straight days of 1,000 deaths or more?

I honestly thought we’d be better than that by August.

Not sure where you get your data but that is incredibly wrong. Just to help you out as recently as August 8th, 9th and 10th none of those days were over 1,000 deaths. Or are you speaking globally?

[Bugeater]

Originally Posted by KCUnited

Transmitted by humans /first

Interesting theory...tell me more...

[tk13]

Yeah, I think the correct stat is looking at the average number of deaths/day for the last week.

We have averaged "1000 deaths/day over the last week" for the last 16 days. Just a sign that the overall trend isn't going great.

[KCUnited]

Originally Posted by Bugeater

Interesting theory...tell me more...

Just stating facts in one post

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Not sure where you get your data but that is incredibly wrong. Just to help you out as recently as August 8th, 9th and 10th none of those days were over 1,000 deaths. Or are you speaking globally?

Sorry, weekly average/day. Weekly numbers matter more as the daily totals are too inaccurate in reporting time and delays.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wxi...st-12/33581651