***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Pants]

Originally Posted by petegz28

He keeps beating that drum without or refusing to realize that you can only mitigate so much. The virus hasn't and isn't going away. So you either mitgate yourself into oblivion or you accept the fact that all mitigation is temporary at best.

The answer is treatments and a vaccine.

What drum are you beating?

Let's try to stay away from the "jeez, I was just kidding" stuff. Real answer only, please.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Donger

Wouldn't you say that it HAS worked in New Zealand? It's what they've done and what they are doing.

Unless it's going to happen in other countries, in the end, it's kind of futile.

You have population fatigue and economic issues. They're only meant to basically occur in very short amount of times.

[O.city]

So we now know that most mild infections down seroconvert, but have been shown to have developed long standing "innate" immunity thru T cell activation.

We would then know, that in itself is going to show how serology testing is going to undercount pretty significantly the amount of cleared infections and immunity, no?

Is this thing on?

[O.city]

Texas hospitalizations are continuing to fall and are about to levels they were in early June. So thats good news.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by O.city

Would have to see what areas of those countries.

Italy was the northern area hit hard the first time, looks like the problems now are in the South.

Kinda going thru the same things we are.

We are just going to have to hold out hope that the vaccines work I am afraid. It is just going to be like whack a mole because it is to infectious.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

We are just going to have to hold out hope that the vaccines work I am afraid. It is just going to be like whack a mole because it is to infectious.

Why wouldn't vaccines work?

[Donger]

Originally Posted by O.city

Texas hospitalizations are continuing to fall and are about to levels they were in early June. So thats good news.

That's great news. Arizona positivity is now the same as it was in early June, too.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Pants

What drum are you beating?

Let's try to stay away from the "jeez, I was just kidding" stuff. Real answer only, please.

Your snarky shit aside the drum I don't know that I am beating any particular drum. I prefer to let the data help form my opinions and that includes economic as well as medical data.

I prefer not to approach things with the false notion that we can mitigate this virus into non-existence. At least not in the near term and definitely not without completely destroying our economy.

The bottom line is as long as the virus exists you are going to deal with it. You can mitigate an area down to x number of cases but most likely and as we are seeing elsewhere, it will come back. I know there is this pipe dream of "if we get it low enough and do this contact tracing and lock down this and loosen up that and this thing does the other thing" that we can somehow get ourselves "back to normal".

I mentioned this yesterday to an extent, we are at a point now where we have to start managing possibilities vs. probabilities. There isn't any one size fits all answer. There isn't any magic mitigation method. In theory there might very well be but reality doesn't permit those theories to exist.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

We are just going to have to hold out hope that the vaccines work I am afraid. It is just going to be like whack a mole because it is to infectious.

We need therapeutics before a vaccine. I know the word "vaccine" makes everyone feel all warm and fuzzy. It's like watching the movies when the Villain is the only one with the "anti-dote".

The reality is if we can find ways to treat it like we have ways to treat influenza and such then a vaccine is gravy and won't need to be rushed so much thus hopefully getting us something better sooner.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by O.city

Why wouldn't vaccines work?

I am confidant they will because this virus doesn't mutate much. Dr Fauci said they are preparing human challenges trials just in case though.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by petegz28

We need therapeutics before a vaccine. I know the word "vaccine" makes everyone feel all warm and fuzzy. It's like watching the movies when the Villain is the only one with the "anti-dote".

The reality is if we can find ways to treat it like we have ways to treat influenza and such then a vaccine is gravy and won't need to be rushed so much thus hopefully getting us something better sooner.

Just like not having a major testing break through we really haven't had a therapeutics breakthrough. At this pace a vaccine will be ready before a good therapeutic will.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

Just like not having a major testing break through we really haven't had a therapeutics breakthrough. At this pace a vaccine will be ready before a good therapeutic will.

How effective do you think that vaccine is really going to be? Fauci himself has said he doesn't think that it will be highly effective at frist and a lot of experts have said we are 5-10 years away from a real vaccine in the way of the flu vaccine.

Even so, people can and most likely will still get this even after a vaccine for a while. So I go back to treating it. I mean if I don't get it then great but what happens if\when I do?

Therapeutics......

[Pants]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Your snarky shit aside the drum I don't know that I am beating any particular drum. I prefer to let the data help form my opinions and that includes economic as well as medical data.

I prefer not to approach things with the false notion that we can mitigate this virus into non-existence. At least not in the near term and definitely not without completely destroying our economy.

The bottom line is as long as the virus exists you are going to deal with it. You can mitigate an area down to x number of cases but most likely and as we are seeing elsewhere, it will come back. I know there is this pipe dream of "if we get it low enough and do this contact tracing and lock down this and loosen up that and this thing does the other thing" that we can somehow get ourselves "back to normal".

I mentioned this yesterday to an extent, we are at a point now where we have to start managing possibilities vs. probabilities. There isn't any one size fits all answer. There isn't any magic mitigation method. In theory there might very well be but reality doesn't permit those theories to exist.

Oh. Based on your Sweden posts, I thought your drum was no mitigation and letting this thing just run its course.

[Pants]

Originally Posted by petegz28

We need therapeutics before a vaccine. I know the word "vaccine" makes everyone feel all warm and fuzzy. It's like watching the movies when the Villain is the only one with the "anti-dote".

The reality is if we can find ways to treat it like we have ways to treat influenza and such then a vaccine is gravy and won't need to be rushed so much thus hopefully getting us something better sooner.

I am not sure therapeutics are ever going to be possible given the nature of this virus. I think vaccines are a much more likely path to success.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Pants

Oh. Based on your Sweden posts, I thought your drum was no mitigation and letting this thing just run its course.

Well, truth be told I think there is a bit of method to that madness. Obviously not for everyone but I think in general most younger and healthy people might do better to go the route of Sweden while obviously our elderly or high risk people would not fare very well.

Herd immunity is natures' vaccine, right? I think to a degree you have to embrace it. To what degree I guess is the question.