***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

What area is driving this?

From what I can gather, in order from greatest to least.

St. Louis area.
KC area
Central Missouri
Southwest Missouri
Northwest Missouri
Northeast Missouri.

[dirk digler]

Here is a good story on vaccines. There is a crap ton of vaccines that maybe available but not in the first wave. Everybody wants to kill this virus so we can go back to normal.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/27/h...-vaccines.html

Seven months into the coronavirus crisis, with more than 30 vaccines rapidly advancing through the rigorous stages of clinical trials, a surprising number of research groups are placing bets on some that have not yet been given to a single person.

The New York Times has confirmed that at least 88 candidates are under active preclinical investigation in laboratories across the world, with 67 of them slated to begin clinical trials before the end of 2021.

Those trials may begin after millions of people have already received the first wave of vaccines. It will take months to see if any of them are safe and effective. Nevertheless, the scientists developing them say their designs may be able to prompt more powerful immune responses, or be much cheaper to produce, or both — making them the slow and steady winners of the race against the coronavirus.

“The first vaccines may not be the most effective,” said Ted Ross, the director of the Center for Vaccines and Immunology at the University of Georgia, who is working on an experimental vaccine he hopes to put into clinical trials in 2021.

Many of the vaccines at the front of the pack today try to teach the body the same basic lesson. They deliver a protein that covers the surface of the coronavirus, called spike, which appears to prompt the immune system to make antibodies to fight it off.

[loochy]

Originally Posted by Donger

40,000 new cases and 1,000 deaths/day aren't exactly good. We are now below 6% nationally, which is getting better.

I'm sorry. Your answer must be in the form of a question.

[O.city]

Already have a case in my sons class. Aid tested positive Tuesday. They’re doing 6 feet apart and such even in class room and masking so 2 kids were direct contacts that have to quarantine

Son is ok. He’s pretty scared and it’s not easy explaining all this to a 7 year old

[TLO]

Diagnosing COVID-19 infection: the danger of over-reliance on positive test results

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....26.20080911v3

I'd recommend reading the whole thing, but an interesting blurb.

This is based on a widespread belief that positive results in these tests are highly reliable. However, data on PCR-based tests for similar viruses show that PCR-based testing produces enough false positive results to make positive results highly unreliable over a broad range of real-world scenarios.

[Discuss Thrower]

Wonderful.

[R Clark]

Originally Posted by O.city

Already have a case in my sons class. Aid tested positive Tuesday. They’re doing 6 feet apart and such even in class room and masking so 2 kids were direct contacts that have to quarantine

Son is ok. He’s pretty scared and it’s not easy explaining all this to a 7 year old

My six yr old grandson is back to school ,no masks but are trying to do the 6’ distance thing. I can’t imagine it working with that age group.No active cases in the county the last three weeks so that makes me feel better with school in session

[Fish]

First week of classes...

300 Mizzou students infected with COVID-19, restrictions on crowds and bars enacted

With more than 300 University of Missouri students infected with the coronavirus and cases also rising among permanent residents of Columbia, the city is limiting crowd sizes and requiring bars to close early.

Health director Stephanie Browning says new cases of COVID-19 “are increasing exponentially.” She cites a test positivity rate of 44.6% last week as evidence of “widespread community transmission.”

By comparison, the county’s rate before students returned to class on Aug. 19 was 11%.

Effective Friday, August 28, public gatherings must be limited to no more than 20 people, with some exceptions. Bars and restaurants must cut off alcohol sales at 9 p.m. and close no later than 10 p.m.

[TLO]

This thing is taking off in my area. Just today I've had 3 people who are either staff or clients in close personal contact with a covid positive person. Staff got tested today. My 2 clients tomorrow. Really, REALLY hoping my clients are negative. Both have serious underlying conditions.

[Chief Pagan]

Originally Posted by R Clark

My six yr old grandson is back to school ,no masks but are trying to do the 6’ distance thing. I can’t imagine it working with that age group.No active cases in the county the last three weeks so that makes me feel better with school in session

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53932294

Another study from UK just came out supporting the idea that young children who don't have underlying health concerns are low risk. And probably a reduced risk to spread it to adults.

Social distancing might be most important for the teachers.

Outside of areas that are getting hammered, I would still support in person grade schools.

But I'm doubtful about high schools and colleges.

Instead of trying to enforce social distancing in that age group. I think I would work more on putting the kids in small groups and trying to keep the groups apart.

[petegz28]

First was the misleading charts.....now this.

KDHE hides low testing rate to push COVID positivity scare
https://sentinelksmo.org/kdhe-hides-...NITzIy6s2-N8RQ

But here’s what Dr. Norman conveniently excluded – Kansas has the 2nd-lowest COVID testing rate in the nation, at 135,618 per million, which is 42% below the national average.

Dr. Christine White, a Johnson County pediatrician, recently told the Blue Valley school board that COVID positivity rates are artificially high because “the data is obtained from a skewed sample.” White says the vast majority of people tested in Johnson County already have symptoms or have a known exposure to COVID.

Michael Austin, an economist and Director of Entrepreneurial Government for the Sentinel’s parent company, Kansas Policy Institute, says the combination of factors – testing far fewer people than most states and testing a lot of people who already have symptoms – likely results in a strong convenience bias.

“Like a radio host polling his fan mail to see if they like the show, Kansas is placing over-reliance on tests of those with a reasonable suspicion they already have COVID. This statistic under-represents the community at large and should not be the basis of any re-opening policy.”

...

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

Here is a good story on vaccines. There is a crap ton of vaccines that maybe available but not in the first wave. Everybody wants to kill this virus so we can go back to normal.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/27/h...-vaccines.html

We don't need vaccines to return to normal.

See Sweden.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

We don't need vaccines to return to normal.

See Sweden.

Quite possibly your dumbest take yet. There’s no permanent immunity going about this the natural way, so it will always been present in much higher numbers than if a vaccine is present in this scenario.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Quite possibly your dumbest take yet. There’s no permanent immunity going about this the natural way, so it will always been present in much higher numbers than if a vaccine is present in this scenario.

Says???? We have permanent immunity to millions of viruses and have since the beginning of man via "the natural way". That's a pretty bold statement I don't think you can substantially substantiate with any substantive substance.

[Chief Roundup]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

We don't need vaccines to return to normal.

See Sweden.

What is your definition of normal?
You do realize that Sweden still has a growing number of cases?