***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Donger]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Why do you indulge him? He knows perfectly well what the gig is. Anyone who has a basic understanding of math knows how percentages work.

Again, there is nothing wrong with reducing tests and testing only those who "need" to be tested.

But you cannot do that then portray it as if you are doing random tests or make statements like "that means 10% of the people are positive" when in reality the numbers say 10% of the people who showed symptoms, were exposed or otherwise had a particular "need" to be tested were positive.

Prove that testing has decreased, pete.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by petegz28

On the other hand you don't need any special medical training to know how numbers work.

And yet there are people claiming COVID death rates are over-counted by 1600 percent.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

And yet there are people claiming COVID death rates are over-counted by 1600 percent.

Meh, that's a play on the literal numbers and headlines. Technically speaking only 6% of the deaths were from Covid and only Covid.

That being said while people choose to do that there are people who do the opposite as well.

[Donger]

Does anyone actually die from COVID-19 and if so, how? We know that many people who get it contract ARDS or pneumonia, and that is what kills them.

Hamas?

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

And yet there are people claiming COVID death rates are over-counted by 1600 percent.

Well unless you can argue a covid patient wouldn't have survived covid even without the serious underlying health condition there is truth to the belief.

Unless you can argue against the fact average age of a covid death is right around average mortality rates, its valid to point out the numbers are questionable.

[TLO]

So I had 2 clients I had to send for testing on Saturday. We get a call from Urgent Care today that the lab has had a mishap, and their specimens were destroyed.

WTF...

Thankfully my guys aren't showing any symptoms. I think everything is going to turn out ok, but c'mon Quest.

Had to take them back out to be retested today which they weren't happy about, to say the least.

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by Donger

Does anyone actually die from COVID-19 and if so, how? We know that many people who get it contract ARDS or pneumonia, and that is what kills them.

Hamas?

It is in Russia!

[Chief Pagan]

Originally Posted by Pants

The assumption in this case is that they are only testing people with symptoms. Apparently this is to drive a political agenda.

Didn't the CDC say to test less?

So if you test non symptomatic people its an agenda to find too many cases and if you only test symptomatic people it is an agenda to drive the positive test rate up?

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Chief Pagan

Didn't the CDC say to test less?

So if you test non symptomatic people its an agenda to find too many cases and if you only test symptomatic people it is an agenda to drive the positive test rate up?

The CDC said to test only if you have symptoms. Not "test less". There is a significant difference.

[MahomesMagic]

WHO Manifesto for a healthy recovery from COVID-19

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

WHO Manifesto for a healthy recovery from COVID-19

So we got COVID because of our dependence on fossil fuels?

Isn't that like saying that we had Hurricane Katrina because God wanted to punish gays?

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

So we got COVID because of our dependence on fossil fuels?

Isn't that like saying that we had Hurricane Katrina because God wanted to punish gays?

I just thought it was creepy that WHO keeps pushing the "Can't Have Your Life Back" messaging. It makes me wonder what else they are going to try next.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

I just thought it was creepy that WHO keeps pushing the "Can't Have Your Life Back" messaging. It makes me wonder what else they are going to try next.

I kept waiting for some actual steps to fight COVID but all I heard were steps to fight climate change. I'm pretty confused right now.

[suzzer99]

August 30th COVID Fact Check - Are only 6% of COVID-19 deaths actually from COVID-19?

OBVIOUSLY this is not true.

Thankfully, this is a pretty quick one to debunk. I’m sure the media outlets will get on it relatively quickly, but this is simply one more egregious misstatement of fact related to how the CDC does it’s normal course of reporting.

The simple answer is that it’s actually quite common for there to be multiple conditions on a death certificate. The way death certificates are filled out is that a series of conditions are listed in order as to how they led to the death in Part I. For example, the death certificate for a suicide by gunshot would likely have the cause of death as a gunshot of course, but depression as well. You wouldn’t say that the person didn’t die of the gunshot wound because depression was also on the death certificate. Depression was a contributing cause to the firearm injury. Diseases are treated the same way. COVID-19 will rarely be the only contributor to the cause of death. Commonly, COVID-19 causes acute respiratory acidosis which leads to death. There is also a Part II of the death certificate, in which any potentially related co-morbidity that may have made the deceased more likely die of the conditions in Part I. For example, someone with diabetes, asthma, COPD, etc is more likely to die from COVID-19 if they contract it. This doesn’t mean COVID-19 didn’t kill them.

As an example, a 40 year old individual with asthma might have lived for decades had they not contracted the virus, but the asthma will still appear in Part II as an underlying condition that MIGHT have contributed to the severity of the COVID-19 which led to the acute respiratory acidosis from which the man actually died. It’s pretty rare for a death certificate resulting from disease to have just the disease on the paperwork.

Bottom line: Having there be 6% of COVID-19 death certificates in which “Covid-19 was the only cause mentioned” per the CDC is NOT the same thing as saying that only 6% of COVID-19 deaths are from COVID-19. In ALL of those deaths, COVID-19 was a specific contributor to the chain of events that led to death. Without that infection, it would not be expected that the individual would have died at that time.

From a data modeler I follow who definitely knows his stuff wrt to how death certificates and healthcare stats reporting works.

[kgrund]

Two major stories came out last two days the CDC 6% everybody is focusing on and the NYT article discussing the major flaws in the PCR testing. Is it just me that thinks the NYT article about the PCR testing is the far more news worthy of the two?