***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Bwana]

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Daily new hospitalizations in the KC area are at their lowest rate since the end of June.

35% of total beds are available and only 5% are being used for Covid

# of average daily tests is down over 60% from July where it peaked

# of daily new cases is down almost 50% from the peak in July

Oh wow, that's great. It seems in some areas that cases or positive percentage of tests maybe up, but hospitalizations are down. The virus may be weakening in the USA.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Oh wow, that's great. It seems in some areas that cases or positive percentage of tests maybe up, but hospitalizations are down. The virus may be weakening in the USA.

The %positive rate is up because testing is down. It's a bullshit statistic when used alone. If I test 100 people and have a 10% positivity rate it doubles to 20% if I test only 50 people and gets cut in half if I test 200 people.

Then you factor in the fact that most people who get tested are people that think there is a need to be tested such as they are sick or have been exposed to someone who tested positive. Therefore the pool of test cases is already slightly skewed to one side of the probability scale.

Unless you are testing at random and at a consistent rate I think the %positive metric is fairly misleading.

Now if I remember correctly I believe it was KU who randomly tested Teachers and Students alike and had a 1.4% positivity rate.

I make a stink about this because the JoCo Dept of Health's lead doctor used the %positivity rate to make the statement that "we have to assume 10% of students are positive" and that is completely inaccurate. At best he could only say that 10% of students that feel sick or have been exposed to someone who tested positive are positive. That's a far cry from 10% of all students are positive.

I mean if you have 30,000 students he is making an assumption that 3,000 are positive. When in reality if you tested kids who felt sick and\or were exposed to someone who tested positive you might come out to maybe a total of 3,000 kids if that and then only 300 of them would actually be positive. And that is being extremely generous as I would think given what I think I have seen the numbers in JoCo would probably more like 30 kids saying they feel sick and we will say another 30 that have been exposed to a person who was positive and you would end up with a whopping 6 positive cases.

That may a bit of an underestimate but I think it's close to the actual if I had to bet $'s.

[TLO]

O. City - have you seen anything on theraputics lately? There's been very little news lately.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by TLO

O. City - have you seen anything on theraputics lately? There's been very little news lately.

Haven’t really. It’s all ben about vaccines

No news is usually good news though

[Kidd Lex]

Originally Posted by O.city

Haven’t really. It’s all ben about vaccines

No news is usually good news though

https://www.businessinsider.com/coro...n-storm-2020-9

This is a very interesting story that should immediately help with even better therapeutics if the bradykinin findings are clinically supported.

[O.city]

Yeah the antivirals will always be tough because of their mechanisms and such
It’s more about controlling symptoms and such

[TLO]

Excess Patient Visits for Cough and Pulmonary Disease at a Large US Health System in the Months Prior to the COVID-19 Pandemic: Time-Series Analysis

Conclusions: A significantly higher number of patients with respiratory complaints and diseases starting in late December 2019 and continuing through February 2020 suggests community spread of SARS-CoV-2 prior to established clinical awareness and testing capabilities. This provides a case example of how health system analytics combined with EHR data can provide powerful and agile tools for identifying when future trends in patient populations are outside of the expected ranges.

https://www.jmir.org/2020/9/e21562/

[Mr_Tomahawk]

Damn....can't let this thread go 24 hours without a post.

Does that mean Covid is over and we are going to move on to something else finally?

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Mr_Tomahawk

Damn....can't let this thread go 24 hours without a post.

Does that mean Covid is over and we are going to move on to something else finally?

Where's your mask mister?

[Mr_Tomahawk]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Where's your mask mister?

I have a beard.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Mr_Tomahawk

I have a beard.

Make it a comb-"upper".

[O.city]

TLO, did you see any of the news on the Regeneron AB cocktail?

[loochy]

Originally Posted by TLO

Excess Patient Visits for Cough and Pulmonary Disease at a Large US Health System in the Months Prior to the COVID-19 Pandemic: Time-Series Analysis

Conclusions: A significantly higher number of patients with respiratory complaints and diseases starting in late December 2019 and continuing through February 2020 suggests community spread of SARS-CoV-2 prior to established clinical awareness and testing capabilities. This provides a case example of how health system analytics combined with EHR data can provide powerful and agile tools for identifying when future trends in patient populations are outside of the expected ranges.

https://www.jmir.org/2020/9/e21562/

I've said it before, but my wife saw an abnormally high number of pneumonia cases and "flu" that came back negative last winter. I even remember her commenting on how strange it was back then.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by loochy

I've said it before, but my wife saw an abnormally high number of pneumonia cases and "flu" that came back negative last winter. I even remember her commenting on how strange it was back then.

We had something similar here. My daughter and my brother-in-law both were tested for multiple respiratory conditions last winter and both of them ended up being diagnosed with an "unknown virus".