Chiefs Why the hell wouldn’t the Chargers go for it on 4th down in OT? - Page 4

PunkinDrublic · 09-20-2020, 11:10 PM

You’re doing better against the Chiefs than anybody thought you would especially with a backup QB. Nobody would fault you if you went for it and it didn’t work out. If I’m a Charger enthusiast, I’d be pissed. That was a gutless call.

JohnnyHammersticks · 09-21-2020, 08:04 AM

That was one of those plays where I just wanted them to snap it as soon as possible before they came to their senses and went for the 1st down. I can't believe they didn't go for it. Inexcusable on the Chargers part.

lcarus · 09-21-2020, 08:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JohnnyHammersticks

That was one of those plays where I just wanted them to snap it as soon as possible before they came to their senses and went for the 1st down. I can't believe they didn't go for it. Inexcusable on the Chargers part.

I thought maybe they were faking the punt. I couldn't believe it either. The ESPN win probability meter is dumb. The Chargers going for it gave them a 100% chance to win, the Chargers punting gave the Chiefs a 100% chance to win. Just how I felt about it.

And oh whattya know. They punted and the Chiefs won. What a shock.

**BigRedChief** · 09-21-2020, 08:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lcarus

I thought maybe they were faking the punt. I couldn't believe it either.

I thought that too.

#1 commandment in football should be..... Thou shalll never give the ball to Mahomes with a chance to win the game.

Chiefspants · 09-21-2020, 08:51 AM

Speaking of Bronco fans, Orangemane is approaching Chiefsplanet levels of meltdown on their forum.

**wazu** · 09-21-2020, 08:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chiefspants

Speaking of Bronco fans, orangemane is approaching Chiefsplanet levels of meltdown on their forum.

Just checked it out. The thread about Herbert is gold.

Marcellus · 09-21-2020, 09:05 AM

Mike Sando covered this in his column today.

Quote:

Anthony Lynn’s fourth-down decision wasn’t easy. My first reaction was, gotta go for it, because if Patrick Mahomes gets the ball back for Kansas City, game over. But it wasn’t that simple. Lynn, now 27-23 as the Chargers’ head coach, got no help from win-probability models when his team faced fourth-and-1 from the minus-34-yard-line early in overtime. ESPN’s model, which takes into account relative team strengths without accounting specifically for Patrick Mahomes’ capabilities as the Chiefs’ quarterback, saw no advantage to punting or going for it. There were some special considerations for Lynn. Herbert had practiced as the backup all week, so the menu of plays Lynn felt great about could have been reduced. Further, the Chargers had gone for it twice on fourth down earlier in the game, including on another fourth-and-1. Teams tend to not carry into games an unlimited number of plays for specialized situations. Lynn truly did face a difficult decision. Going for it would have been an easier call if the line of scrimmage were the 45 instead of the 34, where the Chiefs would have been in field-goal range instantly if the Chargers failed to convert.

DJ's left nut · 09-21-2020, 09:10 AM

I don't think it's a no brainer.

Yes, I was relieved he punted and that's usually a pretty good sign that the opponent messed up (afterall, if they do what the other team wanted them to do, that's probably not a wise decision).

That said, if Butker misses that kick, the Chargers probably win. When they only needed to get about 20-25 yards after the miss to get into FG range on their own, their play-calling is going to be designed that way. And with what Ekeler and Jackson and even Herbert did on with their legs (not to mention the underneath passing game), I don't think they'd have struggled much with that.

I mean it's not like KC marched the field and dominated when we did get the ball. We needed an all-time big dick moment to win it STILL.

I don't think he did an obviously stupid thing. If any mere mortal is kicking for us, the Chargers likely win that game.

DJ's left nut · 09-21-2020, 09:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 38yrsfan

Surprised everyone where we were watching the game. Happy though, didn't think we could hold them if they went for it. Chiefs had struggled most of the game against their defense so it was reasonable except for two things; Mahomes-mode was activated and Butker unveiled the latest tweaks to his bionic leg. I'd bet they go for it next time.

They'd already gacked the 3rd down and goal situation by just not being on the same page.

If Herbert's in his 2nd year, they go for it. Hell, if Taylor was in they might have. But I think Lynn was genuinely concerned about a play break-down or complete mix-up in the transmission that would've effectively ended the ballgame.

Yes, a veteran QB and a team in mid-season form has a high probability of converting. But a kid who's never played an NFL game and wasn't even taking starters snaps in a limited pre-season (or weekly game-plan install) isn't a given by any stretch.

lcarus · 09-21-2020, 09:14 AM

The Chiefs couldn't stop the run or make a tackle on first contact all frickin day. If I'm the Chargers, I run the ball right up their ass there and if they make the stop, I can live with it. There's still the slim possibility of a turnover, penalty, missed or blocked FG if you don't get it.

FloridaMan88 · 09-21-2020, 09:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RINGLEADER

ESPN's win probability model did not have an issue with Anthony Lynn's decision to punt on 4th and 1 in overtime.

WP go = 0.444
WP punt = 0.445
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) September 20, 2020

This.

Lynn thought if they didn't get the 4th and 1 they would essentially put the Chiefs already in FG range for the win.

But converting a 4th and 1 with how their offense was running the ball all day had a higher probability for success than giving the ball back to Mahomes who would just need to lead the offense to a FG for the win (and not have to drive that far with a kicker who can hit from 60 yards).

Mecca · 09-21-2020, 09:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

They'd already gacked the 3rd down and goal situation by just not being on the same page.

If Herbert's in his 2nd year, they go for it. Hell, if Taylor was in they might have. But I think Lynn was genuinely concerned about a play break-down or complete mix-up in the transmission that would've effectively ended the ballgame.

Yes, a veteran QB and a team in mid-season form has a high probability of converting. But a kid who's never played an NFL game and wasn't even taking starters snaps in a limited pre-season (or weekly game-plan install) isn't a given by any stretch.

I think if Taylor had played the Chiefs would have won easier overall.

htismaqe · 09-21-2020, 09:20 AM

You know why you don't go for it on 4th-and-1 right there?'

-1
1
1
-1
2

Know what those are? The yardage results of the 5 previous Charger running plays in the 4th quarter and OT.

The Chargers has 4th and goal at the 4 and had to settle for a FG.

There was absolutely no guarantee the Chargers could get 1 yard at that point - the momentum of the game had changed. If it weren't for a roughing penalty on Chris Jones, the Chargers offense was completely inept at the end of the game.

htismaqe · 09-21-2020, 09:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I don't think it's a no brainer.

Yes, I was relieved he punted and that's usually a pretty good sign that the opponent messed up (afterall, if they do what the other team wanted them to do, that's probably not a wise decision).

That said, if Butker misses that kick, the Chargers probably win. When they only needed to get about 20-25 yards after the miss to get into FG range on their own, their play-calling is going to be designed that way. And with what Ekeler and Jackson and even Herbert did on with their legs (not to mention the underneath passing game), I don't think they'd have struggled much with that.

I mean it's not like KC marched the field and dominated when we did get the ball. We needed an all-time big dick moment to win it STILL.

I don't think he did an obviously stupid thing. If any mere mortal is kicking for us, the Chargers likely win that game.

Exactly.

Fail on that conversion and the Chiefs likely win on the very next play. Going for it was anything but a no-brainer. If anything, it was a no-win situation.

JohnnyHammersticks · 09-21-2020, 09:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lcarus

The Chiefs couldn't stop the run or make a tackle on first contact all frickin day. If I'm the Chargers, I run the ball right up their ass there and if they make the stop, I can live with it. There's still the slim possibility of a turnover, penalty, missed or blocked FG if you don't get it.

Exactly. Does anyone honestly feel that the Chargers didn't have about a 90% chance of picking up 1-2 yards in that situation? Our D played better in the 2nd half, but still. There's obviously a chance that we'd stop it and instantly be in FG position, but does anyone feel that chance was much greater than 10%? Weigh those odds against the odds that Mahomes leads a team 40-50 yards for the tying FG, which were much higher than 10%, imo.

Regardless, I'm glad the Dolts didn't see it the way I saw it.

Eleazar · 09-21-2020, 09:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88

This.

Lynn thought if they didn't get the 4th and 1 they would essentially put the Chiefs already in FG range for the win.

But converting a 4th and 1 with how their offense was running the ball all day had a higher probability for success than giving the ball back to Mahomes who would just need to lead the offense to a FG for the win (and not have to drive that far with a kicker who can hit from 60 yards).

He was almost right, we did everything we could with the penalties to hose ourselves.

09-20-2020, 11:10 PM
PunkinDrublic Stay down bitch! Join Date: Jun 2001 Location: Plano, TX Casino cash: $4430670	Why the hell wouldn’t the Chargers go for it on 4th down in OT? You’re doing better against the Chiefs than anybody thought you would especially with a backup QB. Nobody would fault you if you went for it and it didn’t work out. If I’m a Charger enthusiast, I’d be pissed. That was a gutless call.
Posts: 9,543

09-21-2020, 08:04 AM	#46
JohnnyHammersticks MVP Join Date: Oct 2011 Location: Chandler AZ Casino cash: $-409996	That was one of those plays where I just wanted them to snap it as soon as possible before they came to their senses and went for the 1st down. I can't believe they didn't go for it. Inexcusable on the Chargers part.
Posts: 14,608

09-21-2020, 08:51 AM	#49
Chiefspants World's Best Boss Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Bronco Country Casino cash: $3584654	Speaking of Bronco fans, Orangemane is approaching Chiefsplanet levels of meltdown on their forum. Last edited by Chiefspants; 09-21-2020 at 09:21 AM..
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09-21-2020, 09:10 AM	#52
DJ's left nut Sauntering Vaguely Downwards Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: Columbia, Mo Casino cash: $-700901	I don't think it's a no brainer. Yes, I was relieved he punted and that's usually a pretty good sign that the opponent messed up (afterall, if they do what the other team wanted them to do, that's probably not a wise decision). That said, if Butker misses that kick, the Chargers probably win. When they only needed to get about 20-25 yards after the miss to get into FG range on their own, their play-calling is going to be designed that way. And with what Ekeler and Jackson and even Herbert did on with their legs (not to mention the underneath passing game), I don't think they'd have struggled much with that. I mean it's not like KC marched the field and dominated when we did get the ball. We needed an all-time big dick moment to win it STILL. I don't think he did an obviously stupid thing. If any mere mortal is kicking for us, the Chargers likely win that game. __________________ "If there's a god, he's laughing at us.....and our football team..." "When you look at something through rose colored glasses, all the red flags just look like flags."
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09-21-2020, 09:14 AM	#54
lcarus Everybody Lies. Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: 22 Acacia Avenue Casino cash: $-1789887	The Chiefs couldn't stop the run or make a tackle on first contact all frickin day. If I'm the Chargers, I run the ball right up their ass there and if they make the stop, I can live with it. There's still the slim possibility of a turnover, penalty, missed or blocked FG if you don't get it.
Posts: 17,832

09-21-2020, 09:20 AM	#57
htismaqe 'Tis my eye! Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Chiefsplanet Casino cash: $8179900	You know why you don't go for it on 4th-and-1 right there?' -1 1 1 -1 2 Know what those are? The yardage results of the 5 previous Charger running plays in the 4th quarter and OT. The Chargers has 4th and goal at the 4 and had to settle for a FG. There was absolutely no guarantee the Chargers could get 1 yard at that point - the momentum of the game had changed. If it weren't for a roughing penalty on Chris Jones, the Chargers offense was completely inept at the end of the game.
Posts: 104,293	3 0