***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[O.city]

The closer to capacity and busier things get the more the death rate will creep up

It is what it is at this point, not much to be done about it anyway

[Otter]

I was listening to the Skeptics Guild to the Universe, which I do respect their opinions, and they were touting how a couple mile stones were passed in the last week or so. Two million deaths worldwide and 200,00 in the US alone.

It got me thinking, how does it compare to the 1918 Spanish Flu? A quick google search and there were 50 million deaths from Spanish Flu worldwide. We got a way to go to meet that, but maybe it will be up there with it, right?

Then it occured to me that the population was a lot less back then, so lets do some quicky math. 50 million death from a 2 billion population makes it so that 2.5% of the world's population died from Spanish Flu. Our current world population is almost 8 Billion now. 2.5% of 8 billion is 200 million.

Any opinions beyond that are just subjective, take it as you will, but we have a ways to go before we get Spanish Flu Pandemic numbers

[O.city]

This is no where near that level in terms of death. Thankfully

[petegz28]

As of yesterday there are 2,384 beds available in the KC area or 34.2%.

As of yesterday there are 326 ICU beds available in the KC area or 30.6%.

[Fish]

Dr. Marc Larson, operations director of St. Luke’s Health System’s COVID Response Team

or pete.

[petegz28]

The thing about the deaths in this country is we have seen several studies say that nearly half were caused not because someone got Covid but the decision(s) made on how to handle it vis-a-vis care facilities.

I am not saying it is an easy situation to deal with but nonetheless studies have shown we might have been able to prevent a lot of those deaths.

That's a bitter sweet deal as people still died.

[O.city]

Just because there are beds available doesn’t mean we can adequately care for said beds

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Fish

Dr. Marc Larson, operations director of St. Luke’s Health System’s COVID Response Team

or pete.

It's Larsen, not Larson.....

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Otter

I was listening to the Skeptics Guild to the Universe, which I do respect their opinions, and they were touting how a couple mile stones were passed in the last week or so. Two million deaths worldwide and 200,00 in the US alone.

It got me thinking, how does it compare to the 1918 Spanish Flu? A quick google search and there were 50 million deaths from Spanish Flu worldwide. We got a way to go to meet that, but maybe it will be up there with it, right?

Then it occured to me that the population was a lot less back then, so lets do some quicky math. 50 million death from a 2 billion population makes it so that 2.5% of the world's population died from Spanish Flu. Our current world population is almost 8 Billion now. 2.5% of 8 billion is 200 million.

Any opinions beyond that are just subjective, take it as you will, but we have a ways to go before we get Spanish Flu Pandemic numbers

IFR for the Spanish Flu was something close to 2%

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by O.city

Just because there are beds available doesn’t mean we can adequately care for said beds

Again, resources are tight but we are not in any threat of not being able to provide right now.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Again, resources are tight but we are not in any threat of not being able to provide right now.

As case numbers are going up, I’m guessing things aren’t exactly on the downtrend yet

[stumppy]

Hmmm, who to believe.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by O.city

As case numbers are going up, I’m guessing things aren’t exactly on the downtrend yet

7 day average of daily new cases in the kc area is at its lowest level since June 26th.

7 day average of daily new cases on the MO side of the KC area has really come down since 9/26.

There was a spike from 9/12 - 9/26 on both sides of the state line but a little more on the MO side.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by stumppy

Hmmm, who to believe.

I am not asking anyone to believe me over Dr. Larsen. You might actually read everything that is said though and not just cherry pick sentences.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by petegz28

7 day average of daily new cases in the kc area is at its lowest level since June 26th.

7 day average of daily new cases on the MO side of the KC area has really come down since 9/26.

There was a spike from 9/12 - 9/26 on both sides of the state line but a little more on the MO side.

Do metro hospitals on hospitalize people from the metro?

Same thing as here, rural area spread is exploding which leads to increased hospitalizations because there aren’t rural hospitals to hold them