Chubb (CLE) going out of bounds up 10-7?

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

The point is that Cleveland would have scored a TD with 1:07 left.

At that point, they are kicking off.

The most likely scenario is they have to drive 40 or so yards, kick a FG, and then recover an onside kick. At that point, they have to drive 50 yards for a TD and PAT for the tie or 2 point conversion for the outright win. The 2-point conversion obviously adds even more difficulty.

A kick return TD to start the sequence would make it infinitely easier but that's extremely rare. Any number of other scenarios are almost statistically impossible, like recovering two onside kicks, back to back.

The Browns weren't losing that game had Chubb scored. It just wasn't going to happen.

Yeah, it's the difference between taking the 99.99% chance of winning when all you have to do is not screw up a kneel down (and if they did screw it up, they'd most likely have to drive 50+ yards to get into FG range with less than a minute left), or a 99% chance of winning by scoring the touchdown.

It's effectively arguing over that +/-0.99%.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

Yeah, it's the difference between taking the 99.99% chance of winning when all you have to do is not screw up a kneel down (and if they did screw it up, they'd most likely have to drive 50+ yards to get into FG range with less than a minute left), or a 99% chance of winning by scoring the touchdown.

It's effectively arguing over that +/-0.99%.

Again, though, everyone's ignoring the chance of injury. Even if you don't think it makes any difference whether you score or go down, there's no question that there's a far greater chance of injury if you're forced to play out the final minute with a bunch of aggressive, downfield throws than there is during two kneel downs.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Again, though, everyone's ignoring the chance of injury. Even if you don't think it makes any difference whether you score or go down, there's no question that there's a far greater chance of injury if you're forced to play out the final minute with a bunch of aggressive, downfield throws than there is during two kneel downs.

I guess. I'm just overly averse to playing the game that way. PTSD.

[wazu]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

I guess. I'm just overly averse to playing the game that way. PTSD.

Same. I want to be up by 2 scores. I'm all for playing smart when that's not going to be the case. (Like when Gurley tried to get down a couple of weeks ago.)

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by DRM08

At least Cleveland was leading the game when he did it. My school had a RB pull this stunt at the end of a game Saturday while we were still trailing. Fortunately our kicker made the FG to win the game as time expired, but it was one of those situations that could have easily backfired on us.

Uhhh. That kid does NOT get it.

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Marty made decisions based on "safe" probabilities. Those decisions almost ALWAYS led to playoff disappointment.

Prevent defenses, going away from the pass to protect a lead, etc.

I know it sounds odd to think about "karma" but we lived it as fans for a good 15 years until Peterson was gone.

Agreed. Statistics was many moon ago but either case has enough of a sample size to have a statistically significant sample size to compare against. So if you’re going on just numbers I’d push back. I get it, but we’re out here to score Touchdowns and get stops. Anything other than that is asking for trouble IMO.

Originally Posted by DaFace

Again, though, everyone's ignoring the chance of injury. Even if you don't think it makes any difference whether you score or go down, there's no question that there's a far greater chance of injury if you're forced to play out the final minute with a bunch of aggressive, downfield throws than there is during two kneel downs.

Fair point about injuries.

Originally Posted by htismaqe

I guess. I'm just overly averse to playing the game that way. PTSD.

You’re goddamned right PTSD. I guarantee half this board would just assume we’d fumble the snap Pre-Mahomes. DaFace doesn’t believe in Karma or football gods or whatever, but there is no doubt the Chiefs have an abnormally high rate of pulling defeat from the jaws of victory. And Cleveland does too.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

You’re goddamned right PTSD. I guarantee half this board would just assume we’d fumble the snap Pre-Mahomes. DaFace doesn’t believe in Karma or football gods or whatever, but there is no doubt the Chiefs have an abnormally high rate of pulling defeat from the jaws of victory. And Cleveland does too.

[ThaVirus]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I suppose agree to disagree. I can't think of any other game in NFL history other than the one you're referring to where a team has lost on a botched kneel down. I think of a handful of games where a team has scored twice in the final minute to win it.

This is what it boils down to for me. Both situations give the Browns like a 99.9999% probability of winning the game, but I cannot recall a single team, who was leading at the time, losing the game on a botched victory formation.

Originally Posted by wazu

For those who are defending Chubb - do you think Damien Williams should have run out of bounds in the Super Bowl?

If anything he should have just slid down at the 1. Again, probably not changing much overall but it's the difference between running the clock down another 40 seconds if they have no timeouts or burning a timeout if they've got any left.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by ThaVirus

This is what it boils down to for me. Both situations give the Browns like a 99.9999% probability of winning the game, but I cannot recall a single team, who was leading at the time, losing the game on a botched victory formation.



If anything he should have just slid down at the 1. Again, probably not changing much overall but it's the difference between running the clock down another 40 seconds if they have no timeouts or burning a timeout if they've got any left.

Yup. I originally thought Philip rivers vs the Chiefs but realized he fumbled a snap to set up a game winning FG. They were not in victory formation.