***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Donger]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

I would also get cases down 60 to 80% simply by recalibrating the PCR tests to 30.

Then you also would need a symptom to go along with a PCR positive test.

Boom, cases almost gone.

If you look at the vaccine companies that is what they are doing..not using cranked up PCR tests without symptoms. They know and so should we.

Yep. If we stopped testing, our cases would go to zero! Wait, why are all these people showing up at hospitals?

Testing identifies infections. Testing creates nothing.

[eDave]

Originally Posted by petegz28

That's really just it. Possibility vs. Probability. We are too much into this "if it can happen it's going to happen!" mode anymore.

I'd support a half lockdown but that's problematic in and of itself. But something to balance things out best as possible is preferable. Now's the time to do something, not argue over it.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by petegz28

If it worked why do we have to do it again?

I presume this is rhetorical.

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by Donger

Yep. If we stopped testing, our cases would go to zero! Wait, why are all these people showing up at hospitals?

Testing identifies infections. Testing creates nothing.

Well, looking at the number in Miami more than half of the Covid "hospitalizations" aren't there for Covid but got a PCR positive on a test. So only counting actual Covid hospitalizations also brings those numbers down fast.

More than 50% just by counting correctly in this case.

Testing identifies infections.

You are a slow learner man.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

Well, looking at the number in Miami more than half of the Covid "hospitalizations" aren't there for Covid but got a PCR positive on a test. So only counting actual Covid hospitalizations also brings those numbers down fast.

More than 50% just by counting correctly in this case.

Testing identifies infections.

You are a slow learner man.

You do realize that that just shows how widespread virus transmission is in Miami, right?

Testing does identify infections. Are you actually disputing that?

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by Donger

You do realize that that just shows how widespread virus transmission is in Miami, right?

Testing does identify infections. Are you actually disputing that?

Its not calibrated well to distinguish between active infections and dead pieces of virus.

Fauci said infections don't show past 32 cycles. So my question to you is why do you want so many false positives on a test that is being used to drive health policy?

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by petegz28

No it won't. People need to get this through their heads, the virus is not going away, okay? It's here. It's not going to die. It's not going to disappear. You can hide in your house all you want but as long as there is one person or maybe even animal that has the virus it is not going to simply "go away".

A full lockdown will not "stop the virus". You would literally have to lock down any and everything that had the virus across the globe for an extended period of time.

You are correct. I should have stated it would drive Rt far down under 1

[Donger]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

Its not calibrated well to distinguish between active infections and dead pieces of virus.

Fauci said infections don't show past 32 cycles. So my question to you is why do you want so many false positives on a test that is being used to drive health policy?

Let me nip this in the butt:

How did a person with "dead" virus in their body get said "dead" virus without being infected?

And yes, that an intentional sic...

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

Well, looking at the number in Miami more than half of the Covid "hospitalizations" aren't there for Covid but got a PCR positive on a test. So only counting actual Covid hospitalizations also brings those numbers down fast.

More than 50% just by counting correctly in this case.

Testing identifies infections.

You are a slow learner man.

You're wasting your breath. Most likely these people never would test positive if the tests were set where literally every ****ing medical expert says they should be set. Having a trace amount of the virus, being infected and being contagious are all very separate things. It has been 21 days since my symptoms. I was deemed non-contagious 10 days after the day of onset. I was told not to test because I would most likely still test positive.

There is gathering data and then there is mis-using data. If people would not test positive if the cycles were where they should be then most likely they are not spreading the virus either.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Donger

Let me nip this in the butt:

How did a person with "dead" virus in their body get said "dead" virus without being infected?

And yes, that an intentional sic...

Just because a person has trace amounts of a virus does not mean they ever had it enough to be deemed infected or contagious. I figured even a Donger would know that.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by TLO

I wish I had a good answer to this. Unfortunately, I don't. I'm very against locking down, but am not opposed to SOME other measures being taken.

Schools should remain open though.

I am with you. I would probably do mask mandate, no indoor activities (indoor dining, bars, gyms), keep schools open and hold out until the vaccine comes.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

I am with you. I would probably do mask mandate, no indoor activities (indoor dining, bars, gyms), keep schools open and hold out until the vaccine comes.

Mask mandates have been done. They don't seem to work for whatever reason. Blaming bars and gyms to me is an expedient convenience that in a lot of places is not supported by data.

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by petegz28

You're wasting your breath. Most likely these people never would test positive if the tests were set where literally every ****ing medical expert says they should be set. Having a trace amount of the virus, being infected and being contagious are all very separate things. It has been 21 days since my symptoms. I was deemed non-contagious 10 days after the day of onset. I was told not to test because I would most likely still test positive.

There is gathering data and then there is mis-using data. If people would not test positive if the cycles were where they should be then most likely they are not spreading the virus either.

There were states that were adding antibody tests as cases at one point. Honestly, history will not be very kind to the people that have been doing things they know are wrong.

The vaccine makers cranking down the cycles should be a massive clue that the fundamentals we see reported rest on quicksand.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Mask mandates have been done. They don't seem to work for whatever reason. Blaming bars and gyms to me is an expedient convenience that in a lot of places is not supported by data.

Ok I have stated my plan what is yours?

[Donger]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Just because a person has trace amounts of a virus does not mean they ever had it enough to be deemed infected or contagious. I figured even a Donger would know that.

Really? Okay pete. Please explain how a person with "dead" SARS-CoV-2 virus fragments in the their body go that way without being infected with said virus.