Let’s talk about the Miami Dolphins

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Headed down to a familiar location for the Florida heat and a highly formidable opponent.

The Dolphins have a great defense, a mediocre at best offense. Not all that different from Denver really, but coached better.

A win would clinch the AFCW for the 5th straight season, so there is some added importance. Of course we are on Pittsburgh’s heels, too.

I think we all aren’t totally sure what to make of the team at this point. They’ve been inconsistent in their focus, their execution. There seem to be problem areas that could be upgraded by simply plugging a backup in (hi, Wis), but it remains to be seen if any changes are going to be made.

It’s a weird league where outcomes are all over the place, winning is really damn hard, but they’re still 11-1 and largely look to be on cruise control half the time. I do think there’s something to be said for the GS Warriors comparison where sometimes they just don’t flip the switch until they have to. I guess we will see what happens as the games get bigger and bigger for this team.

This one won’t be easy, but if the offense comes out locked in from the go, it shouldn’t be a scare. I also think it’s another opportunity for the defense to perform well again, but I still feel like we need more from our pass rush along the DL moving forward.

Game is at noon on CBS...

[pugsnotdrugs19]

They’ll blitz, but they’ll do it in exotic ways where it’s tough to tell who is coming (like the Patriots used to do to us). Not saying it’ll work cause any recipe of steady blitzing is going to surrender some big plays, but they might get us on a few too.

[loochy]

Originally Posted by ROYC75

Chiefs (11-1) at Dolphins (8-4)
Opening line: Chiefs -7.5

One reason you might not want to bet against Miami in this spot because the Dolphins are 9-3 ATS on the season, which is the best mark in the NFL (The Steelers could tie that mark on Monday if they cover against Washington). The Dolphins are also 14-5 ATS in their past 19 games as an underdog, including winning and covering in their past three. The Dolphins also seem to do pretty well in December at home, going 8-2 both straight-up and ATS In their past 10 December home games. As for the Chiefs, you probably don't want to bet on an upset here and that's because the Chiefs are 18-2 straight up in the past 20 games where they were favored by a touchdown or more. However, they're just 9-10-1 ATS in those games.

I don't give a shit about the spread

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by ChiefsFanatic

So, is anyone else afraid of how badly Gesicki is going to rape our linebackers?

Spags has got to find a way to either get Gay more snaps, or we have to wreck his routes immediately off the LOS, because that dude can run, and has great hands. It's a match up that heavily favors the Dolphins.

Sent from my GM1915 using Tapatalk

Right now, Gay isn't much better. Athletic TE's are a matchup problem for nearly every team.

[duncan_idaho]

Dolphins fans are REALLY confident in their CB duo of Howard and Jones and their secondary overall.

Considering what the passing attacks of Buffalo, Seattle, and Arizona did to them, I don't quite get it...

Average performance from Allen, Wilson, and Murray was:
70% completions for 10.5 YPA, 341 yards, 2.7 TDs and 0.3 INTs

Those teams each put up 31 points. KC has a deeper/better group of playmakers and a better QB than each of those teams.

I expect KC to put up something like 38 points and 500 yards. Big day for Mahomes, especially early if the Dolphins try to leave Howard and Jones on islands against Hill and Watkins.

Having Watkins back is so big. If teams are employing the New England approach and doubling both Kelce and Hill, Watkins against single coverage (and, at best, CB #2) is the matchup KC can use to kill them.

[mililo4cpa]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

I just perused Fin Heaven. That's a nice forum and community.

Their "what do we do" thread about the Chiefs talked a lot about cover 0 and blitzing. I don't think they watched the first half against Tampa or are very aware of how good Mahomes is when teams blitz him.

Lot of respect for KC overall.

I went over there just to check it out, and agree that most there seem to know very little about us....Not surprising, but there was a lot of talk about blitzing and cover 0.....they obviously don't know that Mahomes is better against the blitz than laying back in zone...

There was also a lot of the obligatory "long drives, hold on to the ball, keep Mahomes on the bench"....which has worked exactly once in two years.

Honestly though, I like the spirit of their thread: "if I were coach, what would I do...., and honestly, don't know what I would do against the Chiefs, so I suppose I don't have any better offerings than "long drives....."

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by mililo4cpa

I went over there just to check it out, and agree that most there seem to know very little about us....Not surprising, but there was a lot of talk about blitzing and cover 0.....they obviously don't know that Mahomes is better against the blitz than laying back in zone...

There was also a lot of the obligatory "long drives, hold on to the ball, keep Mahomes on the bench"....which has worked exactly once in two years.

Honestly though, I like the spirit of their thread: "if I were coach, what would I do...., and honestly, don't know what I would do against the Chiefs, so I suppose I don't have any better offerings than "long drives....."

Yeah, I'm impressed by that community. It's one of the better ones I've visited the past few years.

Not many "shallow" fanboi takes over there. That's cool.

I still think KC will cruise - and if we see a lot of cover 0/blitzing early, we could see a repeat of the initial bombing we saw against Tampa. Press man against Hill with cover 0 is a great way to give up several big plays early.

[mililo4cpa]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

They’ll blitz, but they’ll do it in exotic ways where it’s tough to tell who is coming (like the Patriots used to do to us). Not saying it’ll work cause any recipe of steady blitzing is going to surrender some big plays, but they might get us on a few too.

I'm going to go back and watch a few of their games this week, but from what I've seen thus far, this is correct....They do like to crowd the line, then drop back, and they do sort of leave their corners on an island....reminded me of the Ravens D in a way....

I just think that's not such a great strategy against the Chiefs. First off, they motion a lot, so the coverages get exposed early in the pre-snap. Secondly, with the speed this team has, they are going to need a cushion. Third, Chiefs have been focusing on beating press man since the 2018 AFCCG, and have gotten really good at beating it, both through alignment and through execution of the play....I don't think this Miami team is any better equipped than anyone else in stopping this team.

On offense, I didn't see much to write home about. Tua looks and plays like a rookie, and the offense is steady if not unspectacular. One thing I did notice watching Tua, that may or may not be something, is that when he's under duress, he prefers to run left (he's left handed, so that keeps his body in a proper throwing position as opposed to going right and throwing across his body, which he doesn't appear comfortable at all....may or may not be anything, and I haven't watched all of his games yet, so don't know if that is a trend.....)

Overall, I think they have a nice team, but they are a year away from serious contention, and that's IF Tua pans out....but I think it would take a monumental upset for them to win....most of their fans seem to think the same as well.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by mililo4cpa

I went over there just to check it out, and agree that most there seem to know very little about us....Not surprising, but there was a lot of talk about blitzing and cover 0.....they obviously don't know that Mahomes is better against the blitz than laying back in zone...

There was also a lot of the obligatory "long drives, hold on to the ball, keep Mahomes on the bench"....which has worked exactly once in two years.

Honestly though, I like the spirit of their thread: "if I were coach, what would I do...., and honestly, don't know what I would do against the Chiefs, so I suppose I don't have any better offerings than "long drives....."

About blitz vs. zone, I posted this the other day. It bears repeating:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...egit-contender

And he has become virtually indefensible against any scheme or strategy aimed at slowing him down, ranking first in QBR against zone coverage, the blitz, no blitz, pressure, no pressure, outside of the pocket, in the third quarter, in the fourth quarter and with or without motion, according to ESPN Stats & Information data.

[mililo4cpa]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

About blitz vs. zone, I posted this the other day. It bears repeating:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...egit-contender

yeah....it's splitting hairs really.....

EDIT: I think the only thing zone really does is makes the O be more patient, and slows the drive downs. this increases the opportunity for a mistake / penalty to stall the drive.....but yeah, doesn't really impact Mahomes at all...in fact, probably makes it slightly easier as his guys know how to find the holes

[InChiefsHeaven]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Yeah, I'm impressed by that community. It's one of the better ones I've visited the past few years.

Not many "shallow" fanboi takes over there. That's cool.

I still think KC will cruise - and if we see a lot of cover 0/blitzing early, we could see a repeat of the initial bombing we saw against Tampa. Press man against Hill with cover 0 is a great way to give up several big plays early.

Yeah, apparently none of those fans watched us dismantle TB in the first half. But I guarantee their coaches did...they won't be so stupid as to run their D like that against the Chiefs.

[reaper7534]

Like most team forums, we have our fair share of delusional fans that seem to think we can stop KC from scoring. If we did somehow slow down your passing attack, the run game is going to eat us up. We are dreadful against the run. Even average teams that run the ball with any consistency kills us.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by reaper7534

Like most team forums, we have our fair share of delusional fans that seem to think we can stop KC from scoring. If we did somehow slow down your passing attack, the run game is going to eat us up. We are dreadful against the run. Even average teams that run the ball with any consistency kills us.

Compared to Ravens/Steelers/Titans/Texans/Broncos/Raiders forums, it’s a low percentage. I’m sure it would be lower than a Chargers fan forum, if one existed, too.

I suspect KC will run more against light boxes if Edwards-Helaire is able to play than it did against Denver.

I could see Flores and co. Being confident Jones and Howard will hold up better on islands than the Tampa CB did, but suspect they won’t be as stubborn with it as Tampa was ... if they do go that route.

[tk13]

Originally Posted by mililo4cpa

There was also a lot of the obligatory "long drives, hold on to the ball, keep Mahomes on the bench"....which has worked exactly once in two years.

Yeah but Mahomes is like 35-8. There isn't much that works. Holding onto the ball isn't going to guarantee a win, but it sure is a better option than trying to blitz him and play aggressive and letting Tyreek go off for 200 yards in a quarter.

[Marcellus]

Chiefs are 20-1 their last 21 games and they ain't going to 20-2 after Sunday.

[smithandrew051]

Dolphins offense is atrocious. They rank right there with the Bengals, Eagles, Bears, and Giants in total offense. They rank middle of the pack in scoring, which tells you how bad they need turnovers to create short fields.

If we don’t turn the ball over, the Dolphins have zero shot.