***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by Donger

330 million Americans haven't been infected with SARS-CoV-2, thankfully.

This brings up an interesting point... how many people in the US have been infected?

The CDC estimated that there were 6-24 times as many infections compared to the confirmed numbers.

Let's play with those numbers for a sec... if we split the difference between 6x and 24x that gives us 15x but that's obviously too high so let's be conservative and go with 10x. The US currently is reporting 17.5 million confirmed cases. If the actual number is 10 times that than we have had 175 million infections so far. If Covid has a herd immunity threshold of 80% than you are looking at 65 million more cases to reach that level. (30 days at our current rate of infection).

Even if you go with their 6x figure... you have 17.5M x 6 = 105M which puts us at 80% in roughly 3 months. Does that seem accurate to most of you? If not, where is the problem? Do we have had a TON of false positives that are being included in the data or is the CDC is way off base regarding unreported cases and that number is more like 2x not 6x?

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

This brings up an interesting point... how many people in the US have been infected?

The CDC estimated that there were 6-24 times as many infections compared to the confirmed numbers.

Let's play with those numbers for a sec... if we split the difference between 6x and 24x that gives us 15x but that's obviously too high so let's be conservative and go with 10x. The US currently is reporting 17.5 million confirmed cases. If the actual number is 10 times that than we have had 175 million infections so far. If Covid has a herd immunity threshold of 80% than you are looking at 65 million more cases to reach that level. (30 days at our current rate of infection).

Even if you go with their 6x figure... you have 17.5M x 6 = 105M which puts us at 80% in roughly 3 months. Does that seem accurate to most of you? If not, where is the problem? Do we have had a TON of false positives that are being included in the data or is the CDC is way off base regarding unreported cases and that number is more like 2x not 6x?

I wish we knew. I think all we can say definitively at this point is that no one has been able to get to the point that cases are naturally declining due to previous infections resulting in something resembling herd immunity. Otherwise, we shouldn't be seeing spikes in places like NYC, Louisiana, etc. who were in such rough shape early on.

It's possible that the antibody studies were detecting low levels that didn't actually grant immunity or something like that.

[TLO]

20 yes votes
0 no votes
1 abstain

Moderna EUA here we come!!

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I wish we knew. I think all we can say definitively at this point is that no one has been able to get to the point that cases are naturally declining due to previous infections resulting in something resembling herd immunity. Otherwise, we shouldn't be seeing spikes in places like NYC, Louisiana, etc. who were in such rough shape early on.

It's possible that the antibody studies were detecting low levels that didn't actually grant immunity or something like that.

I think Fauci was asked that during the Pfizer approval time a couple of weeks ago. Counting the people who have already been infected, what % of Americans need to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity and return to normal life.


He said a minimum of 60% but qualified it that it could be a lower number because we just know how many people have had covid already but we didn't test them. If anything, the % needed will go down.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by TLO

20 yes votes
0 no votes
1 abstain

Moderna EUA here we come!!

Has anyone put out any sort of concrete schedule for U.S.-bound doses of Pfizer and Moderna? I've seen production numbers, and I've seen U.S. allocation numbers, but I haven't seen anything that combines them into an actual timeline.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Has anyone put out any sort of concrete schedule for U.S.-bound doses of Pfizer and Moderna? I've seen production numbers, and I've seen U.S. allocation numbers, but I haven't seen anything that combines them into an actual timeline.

Gupta said on CNN that between Pfizer and Moderna that he feels confident that 40 million doses are out the door and into arms. 20 million people by the end of the month will have at least 1 shot of the vaccine.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Has anyone put out any sort of concrete schedule for U.S.-bound doses of Pfizer and Moderna? I've seen production numbers, and I've seen U.S. allocation numbers, but I haven't seen anything that combines them into an actual timeline.

Answering my own question, here's an article that gets at some of it.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coro...-start-2020-11

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Answering my own question, here's an article that gets at some of it.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coro...-start-2020-11

I hope thats not just a rosy, hopeful prediction. If thats real, we could be close to "normal" by summer.

Slaoui estimated that the US could immunize 100 million people by the end of February. That would require another 60 million doses to be distributed in January, followed by 100 million in February.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

I hope thats not just a rosy, hopeful prediction. If thats real, we could be close to normal" by summer.

Slaoui estimated that the US could immunize 100 million people by the end of February. That would require another 60 million doses to be distributed in January, followed by 100 million in February.

I think it's a bit optimistic, but not out of the question. I think the big question marks are around the AstraZeneca and J&J vaccines. Those are both a little more iffy in terms of efficacy, but they're far easier to manufacture and distribute. If both of those come through, I think we'll be in good shape. But Pfizer and Moderna can't do that quickly alone.

[Donger]

I wonder what the curve is going to look like once we get above, say, 50% vaccinated.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Donger

I wonder what the curve is going to look like once we get above, say, 50% vaccinated.

I bet we'll see plenty of CASES until we get up toward 60-70%, but in theory we should see DEATHS start to drop VERY soon (maybe even by the end of January). That's the hope at least.

[LTL]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Gupta said on CNN that between Pfizer and Moderna that he feels confident that 40 million doses are out the door and into arms. 20 million people by the end of the month will have at least 1 shot of the vaccine.

One of those arms will be mine at 8am in thc morning.

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

This brings up an interesting point... how many people in the US have been infected?

The CDC estimated that there were 6-24 times as many infections compared to the confirmed numbers.

Let's play with those numbers for a sec... if we split the difference between 6x and 24x that gives us 15x but that's obviously too high so let's be conservative and go with 10x. The US currently is reporting 17.5 million confirmed cases. If the actual number is 10 times that than we have had 175 million infections so far. If Covid has a herd immunity threshold of 80% than you are looking at 65 million more cases to reach that level. (30 days at our current rate of infection).

Even if you go with their 6x figure... you have 17.5M x 6 = 105M which puts us at 80% in roughly 3 months. Does that seem accurate to most of you? If not, where is the problem? Do we have had a TON of false positives that are being included in the data or is the CDC is way off base regarding unreported cases and that number is more like 2x not 6x?

I have seen several estimates that 30% of the population has been infected.

[KCUnited]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

We are averaging two American citizens dying every minute of every day from Covid-19.

For context, someone is shot (not necessarily killed for transparency) every 2 minutes in Chicago. Yes, I understand bullets aren't contagious, but hopefully our diligence gets redirected once society has hauled everyone to the Covid finish line.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I bet we'll see plenty of CASES until we get up toward 60-70%, but in theory we should see DEATHS start to drop VERY soon (maybe even by the end of January). That's the hope at least.

While that would be fantastic, I'm not seeing how deaths are going to decrease while cases are increasing. What am I missing?