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12-29-2020, 01:05 AM | #2356 | |
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However, assuming that you’re sober and are capable of at least average reading comprehension, then probably that’s what I meant when I wrote that. Using yet another example, we could look at the Chiefs record in terms of ATS. So through the first six games are so the Chiefs cover the spread every single time. But over the last eight games, they haven’t covered a single time. So we can surmise that the Chiefs are not scoring as efficiently over the last eight games as they were through the first six. Which might be a problem. There are of course other factors to consider besides just how many points the Chiefs scored per game. Factors such as quality of opponent, whether or not injuries were a factor, coronavirus issues, etc. but generally speaking, it is true that the Chiefs have been less efficient scoring for the past couple of months, and this may continue into the playoffs. But I think my point or the point that I was trying to make at the time, was simply that context matters. And that point differential in and of itself doesn’t offer much context. If the above doesn’t make sense right now I apologize. I’ll look at it tomorrow, and try to fix this if it doesn’t.
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12-29-2020, 01:15 AM | #2357 |
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Statistical anomalies - outliers that stick out like a sore thumb - often have their own context.
That’s the case with the Browns. A team with their PD over this many games is almost always sub-500. That’s your context. It doesn’t matter if it was talent or injuries or COVID. Teams that give up more points than they score don’t win a lot of games. |
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12-29-2020, 01:28 AM | #2358 |
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12-29-2020, 03:18 AM | #2359 | |
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One thing I'll point out, they sure seem to get out to good, almost insurmountable leads against the good teams. Miami, New Orleans, Tampa, Baltimore for example. In each of those games, a key play -a turnover by the offense in every one- played the opponent back into game. Chiefs were starting to put game in the bag in each case, and immediately ceded momentum to a previously slumbering good team. |
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12-29-2020, 04:20 AM | #2360 |
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Absolutely. Anyone watching that Broncos game saw a team 100%, no question about it, flat out quit and the Patriots don’t have a single skill position player that would start anywhere else in the NFL, which is amazing. Maybe Harris over Frank Gore but Harris was out last night anyway.
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12-29-2020, 06:26 AM | #2361 |
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12-29-2020, 08:54 AM | #2362 | |
Would an idiot do that?
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The Chiefs should probably be around +200, so beating teams by an average of 12.5 points.... and they're at 9.6. The point yesterday was with the Browns being at a negative point differential and if it matters given they were potentially improving over the course of the year..... but, to put it another way.... if they had lost their first 5 games by an average of 16 points/game (the historically terrible 0-16 Lions and the 2-14 Chiefs lost games by an average of just under 16ppg), then say they started winning to the extent of being on the high end of where they should be in terms of point differential (+130 for the season, or 8.125/game). -16 * 5 = -80 8.125 * 10 = 81 ....they would still have a positive point differential with one game remaining. So, if they were historically awful to start the season and then became a typical 11 or 12 win team, they would still have a better point differential than their current -33. That's how hard it is to have a negative point differential and be playing at the level of a real ~11 win team. It's not a stat to nitpick to death and look across 3 games or anything (for example, you could say "what if the Browns won their last game by 40? ...well, I'm gonna look at the previous 15 games)... but, over the course of the season, it can definitely give you at least a starting point on how strong a team might be, given all of the other variables. |
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12-29-2020, 12:07 PM | #2363 |
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So it’s really just the Steelers [or Bills] right?
Cowherd is the master of using the last so many games with no care for who the opponents are.
He has the Chiefs 3rd behind the Bills & Packers.
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12-29-2020, 12:32 PM | #2364 |
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Their last 4 games were against Dallas, Jax, giants, and in a shootout with Cleveland. The previous 3 before that were losses.
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12-29-2020, 02:21 PM | #2365 |
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12-29-2020, 02:26 PM | #2366 | |
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12-29-2020, 02:40 PM | #2367 |
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The Bills aren't a threat to us because for some reason, Spagnuolo knows exactly how to shut down Stefon Diggs. He's never done shit against us.
If you take away Diggs, Allen becomes hot garbage. I'm gonna guess the Bills win a wild-card game before getting soundly tromped in the divisional round. They're not that good.
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12-29-2020, 02:55 PM | #2368 | |
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What Allen struggles with is reading a defense post-snap, throwing with anticipation, and going through progressions quickly. So Tennessee caused them a problem because cloud coverage and Allen had to throw into a narrow window with great safety play (Tenny's D sucks against almost everyone else!). But these basic throws with anticipation elude Allen so he gave up and just kept hitting checkdowns. Against the Rams 1st half, they played soft zone and Allen picked them apart. In the 2nd half Rams went back to man coverage and pressure and Allen looked like he did last year (except Staley kept calling zone on 3rd and long). Against KC, Spags lied to Allen and showed pressure/man, dropped into zone. Or did something else at LOS to confuse Allen. This messed up his timing and he didn't have 100 yard going into the 4th. Near the end Spags would bail out sooner and Allen saw zone and ....boom. He started hitting. This is not to say Allen is terrible or bad. He has some elite traits but huge weaknesses as well. For some reason, NFL teams either don't have the personnel or scheme ready to get him out of his comfort zone. The Buffalo offense reminds me of Baltimore last year that rolled through the league until Tennessee found some counters in the playoffs (loading up the middle of the field). |
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12-29-2020, 03:02 PM | #2369 | |
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EDIT: I would also add that the Bills aren't a great running team as well, so it's an easier task when you don't have to sell out to stop the run as well.... |
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12-29-2020, 04:20 PM | #2370 |
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