Our second-round opponent will most likely be ... (teaser headline)

[Rain Man]

I looked at the point spreads and how they compare to percentage of winning, then looked at how the seedings will fall. For example, if the #7 seed Colts beat the Bills, then none of the other games matter. The Ravens/Titans game only matters if there are no upsets in the other two games.

In summary, when you crank through the numbers, the odds of our opponent in the next round are:

Ravens - 30%
Colts - 28%
Browns - 25%
Titans - 17%

There you have it. (Removes green accounting eyeshade.)

[ChiTown]

It's the Colts, according to my BS-o-meter

[cmh6476]

So is this the lets talk about them thread?

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

They're a tougher matchup than just about anybody else save maybe Tennessee, that's the real issue.

Every AFC team has a significant weakness that makes the Chiefs a really bad matchup.

Tennessee's defense has no chance against KC or any good offense.

[Why Not?]

Originally Posted by Detoxing

I don't see Indy like everyone seems to. That secondary isn't going to hold up against the Chiefs. Their front 4 pass rush is good, not great.

Me neither. Other than the Browns, whom we would invicerate, I would want the Colts over any other team in the AFC. Coach and QB matters the most in the playoffs. Reich is a good coach with a nice career ahead of him but he’s light years away from Andy. Comparing Phyllis to PMII is like comparing the world’s most gorgeous woman to a dead 700lb toothless road whore.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by wazu

To the actual subject matter, I am really surprised to see the Colts so high. Explanation makes sense, though. Had not really wanted that match-up but if it happens the seemingly good news would be Buffalo is out.

Yeah, that's part of why I ran the numbers. The Colts only need one game to fall right to go up against us (their own). It's not highly likely that that one game will fall their way, but the other opponents all need two or three games to fall a particular way. The Ravens are our most likely opponent because even though they need three games to fall a particular way, it's the favorites winning each game.

[Hammock Parties]

Lamar Jackson will never win a playoff game.

[T-post Tom]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

I looked at the point spreads and how they compare to percentage of winning, then looked at how the seedings will fall. For example, if the #7 seed Colts beat the Bills, then none of the other games matter. The Ravens/Titans game only matters if there are no upsets in the other two games.

In summary, when you crank through the numbers, the odds of our opponent in the next round are:

Ravens - 30%
Colts - 28%
Browns - 25%
Titans - 17%

There you have it. (Removes green accounting eyeshade.)

Keep the eyeshade & the hat on. Oh my!

[OrtonsPiercedTaint]

The Pats had 3 runners with a 6+ average and 1 with a 4.5. I wanted a Ravens at Bills

[diqlix]

Originally Posted by Detoxing

I don't see Indy like everyone seems to. That secondary isn't going to hold up against the Chiefs. Their front 4 pass rush is good, not great.

I agree with you.

I’m on a lot of NFL forums and I can tell you that Chiefs fans see Indi as a tougher team that ANY other fanbase does, including Colts fans themselves.

I think it’s because a lot of Chiefs fans still remember the loss Indi handed them. Regency bias, in a way.

The rest of the NFL kinda considers Indi a joke. They got to the playoffs by beating the Jags, Bengals, Bears, Lions, Texans, Jets, Vikings, etc. By far the worst Strength Of Schedule of any AFC playoff team.

[ChiefsCountry]

Colts are going to upset Buffalo. That means we probably have the 3pm game on Saturday with the Colts.

[diqlix]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

I looked at the point spreads and how they compare to percentage of winning, then looked at how the seedings will fall. For example, if the #7 seed Colts beat the Bills, then none of the other games matter. The Ravens/Titans game only matters if there are no upsets in the other two games.

In summary, when you crank through the numbers, the odds of our opponent in the next round are:

Ravens - 30%
Colts - 28%
Browns - 25%
Titans - 17%

There you have it. (Removes green accounting eyeshade.)

Here are 538’s algorithmic numbers, of teams that would advance to the next round:

Bills - 75%
Ravens - 57%
Titans - 43%
Browns - 38%
Colts - 25%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...l-predictions/

[wazu]

Originally Posted by daquix

I agree with you.

I’m on a lot of NFL forums and I can tell you that Chiefs fans see Indi as a tougher team that ANY other fanbase does, including Colts fans themselves.

I think it’s because a lot of Chiefs fans still remember the loss Indi handed them. Regency bias, in a way.

The rest of the NFL kinda considers Indi a joke. They got to the playoffs by beating the Jags, Bengals, Bears, Lions, Texans, Jets, Vikings, etc. By far the worst Strength Of Schedule of any AFC playoff team.

It's been a weird twist of fate that we've drawn Indy in the first round of the Chiefs playoffs many times over the years and lost repeatedly, going back to the 90s. So many 1-and-dones. The scars run deep.

It's silly, because back then we never had Mahomes, who has vanquished every negative pattern, including this one when he beat Indy 2 years ago in his first playoff game. It would be kind of fun to beat Indy just to further pummel the KC-Indy narrative.

[Megatron96]

I hate KC playing IND, especially in the playoffs. But it's just personal. My brother is an IND fan, so no matter who wins, things are a bit touchy between us for a couple days afterwards.

That aside, I don't see IND as a huge threat. They're a good team, but they have Rivers under center, and KC is basically Phillip's kryptonite since the coming of Mahomes. The only issue with IND is that they have a physical defense, and that could spell injuries, which I'd rather we avoid. Especially after we caught so many serious injuries in that meaningless fiasco yesterday.

[Why Not?]

Originally Posted by JudasRising20

Oh please. Ben Niemann will knock that ponytailed fool into next week.

Sorry. Meant to thumbs up that

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry

Colts are going to upset Buffalo. That means we probably have the 3pm game on Saturday with the Colts.

I count 3 wins against playoff teams for Colts.

Packers, Titans, and Bears.

I count 3 wins against playoff teams for Bills.

Rams, Seahawks, Steelers.


Using stats before this weekend (as I don't care about Buffalo's backup QB throwing bombs on a team that quit)

Offense

Buffalo 29.7 Points per game 6th overall

Indianapolis 28.2 Points per game 9th overall


Defense

Buffalo 23.3 Points per game 15th overall

Indianapolis 23.2 Points per game 12th overall


Doesn't look like some crazy mismatch on paper, looks very even.