Let's Talk About the Bills (AFC Championship Edition)

[cmh6476]

They're pretty good

[joethomas]

If we are at full power this should be a comfortable win. If we're missing Breeland and Watkins and others here and there, I think it will be close.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by joethomas

If we are at full power this should be a comfortable win. If we're missing Breeland and Watkins and others here and there, I think it will be close.

Both of them practiced today.

Also, apparently Watkins is due a $1.25M bonus if he plays in 50% of the snaps and they win.

So he's going to play.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Are you a closet Bills fan?

No, not really.

I just think they're alot better than they were in week 6.

[KChiefs1]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Both of them practiced today.

Also, apparently Watkins is due a $1.25M bonus if he plays in 50% of the snaps and they win.

So he's going to play.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by O.city

No, not really.

I just think they're alot better than they were in week 6.

I'm just teasing you. You basically repeated everything they've been saying verbatim.

By the way, do you think the Chiefs are better than they were in week 6? I mean they blew the doors off of the Bucs and beat the Saints, both on the road.

Does Buffalo have even one win like that over the past 6-7 weeks?

[mililo4cpa]

Originally Posted by KChiefs1

Best defenses I've seen vs Patrick Mahomes are probably the Chargers & 49ers. That of course requires you to manufacture a pass rush using 4 down lineman named...Bosa, Ingram, Buckner & Bosa. Good Luck.

You have to get pressure by not sacrificing people in coverage. You bring a blitz & you are dead meat.

The combination of Mahomes, Andy Reid as a play designer and caller, and the Chiefs WR's makes the Chiefs nearly impossible to cover. This season, defenses have hoped to prevent the big passing play by using two deep safeties. It is the best way to slow down the Chiefs offense that I've seen. Buffalo kept two deep and a light box up front in order to dare the Chiefs to run. The Chiefs obliged but the Bills couldn’t stop them on the ground. The Chargers were able to use that deep coverage and add on with four-man pressures that allowed for more coverage on the second level. And just by keeping the game close, that still left a chance for the Chiefs to pull away at the end of the game for wins.

The coverage aren’t so much about if the Chiefs will beat the defense but more so how the Chiefs will beat the defense. That’s the problem with stopping the Chiefs offense, solving one problem creates another. This is incredibly oversimplified, but Tyreek Hill has been able to feast on single-high coverage and when the Chiefs face two-high safeties, it’s time for Travis Kelce. Pick your poison.

Even the best corners in the league haven’t been able to hold up and few safeties have the range to get from the middle of the field over to the sideline in order to catch Hill on the outside. Take the Tampa Bay game when the Buccaneers tried to run their typical defense, but even Carlton Davis, who had played like one of the better corners in the league, could only do so much in man coverage. He repeatedly got burned in the first quarter. Hill had six receptions on seven targets for 188 yards and three touchdowns against single-high coverages in that game.

Kelce’s ability to work the intermediate middle of the field when the safeties are playing deep has been a huge part of the Kansas City passing game this season and a big reason why he has had the greatest season by a TE in NFL history as teams have been employing the 2-high tactic. Between Reid's route concepts and Kelce’s run after the catch ability, he’s been one of the more productive receivers after the catch.

For as much as defenses have tried to vary game plans against the Chiefs, the best defense this year has been an offense able to keep up. That’s how the Raiders gave the Chiefs their lone loss with Mahomes.

Buffalo might still present the most interesting test as a team that figured out how to slow down the offense, but couldn’t stop the run when they dared the Chiefs to do it. But since that game, the Bills’ run defense has improved, which could limit the damage done on the ground, though it’s no guarantee the Chiefs would give in to the light boxes again. But the Bills’ pass defense has also improved after a rough start and on its best day, the Buffalo offense has the ability to put up points.

Still, we’re talking about everything breaking just right for a team to defend and hang with the Chiefs. It’s not impossible, but even without blowing teams away, Kansas City has made it as hard as possible to take them down.

Good Luck!

the problem is the Bills don't have the guns to get to Mahomes with their down four. So, they have a few options:

1. Play back in soft zone, like they did in the first game. We just saw what happens in a game when teams play that soft zone (i.e. Browns game, and Bills don't have a Myles Garrett). Of course, we also have first hand experience with this in the first Bills game

2. Play more aggressive and more blitzing: I mentioned this a few posts above.....this exponentially magnifies the impact of Hill and Kelce on the Bills D (as you mention in your post). Your quote of "solving one problem creates others" is spot on!

Bills fans seem to be ignoring these factors, and simply think that "playing better" equates to "these problems have gone away"......news flash: They haven't gone away just because Bills fans want them too

Additionally, Bills fans seem to think that "We can win a shootout....", and maybe they can. But they ignore that they are very one dimensional no differently than the Ravens are one dimension. Both are exceptional in the one dimension they thrive at (Bills passing / Ravens running), but if a team can stop that one dimension, they are sitting ducks.

And much like Bills fans are ignoring the problems I outlined above, they are also ignoring that the Strength of the Chiefs D lines up VERY WELL with the one Dimension the Bills O operates in. The Chiefs Defense is more than capable of taking that one dimension away, or at a minimum enough to capitalize on the sever mismatches the Chiefs offense prevents for the Bills Defense

And at the end of the day, this is the football discussion that all these Bills guys really don't want to have, well, because they can't answer it.

Again, none of this guarantees the Chiefs win.....certainly the Bills are explosive enough and sometimes the balls bounce a funny way, and other times, unexpected things happen.....Any given Sunday right!

But when it comes to both teams bringing their "A" games, there is way too many "what ifs" to expect the Bills to win. I think if the Chiefs play their game, eliminate turnovers, and have everyone healthy, they win, and not even a particularly close game at that.....

Just my $.02

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by O.city

Nah, I don't think previous matchups really make much difference once we get to this point. Look at Saints Bucs. Last years Titans Chiefs games etc.

It's something to go off for sure, but in terms of it being much of a predictor, I dunno.

Originally Posted by htismaqe

A predictor, no. Not really.

Part of the game planning? Absolutely.

But that all being said, the way in which the Chiefs beat them does lend context to the upcoming game. The way the Bills played worked for other teams but it didn't work for the Bills. They gave up 250 yards rushing and still allowed Mahomes an 80% completion percentage.

That's relevant to the upcoming game because the Bills are really caught in a vice. They either have to radically change their defensive game plan and hope it doesn't implode or they have to repeat what they did before and hope that it works this time.

All they really have is hope.

Originally Posted by O.city

If it were in week say, 15 or something, I'd put more weight on it.

Being so long ago, teams change so much. They'll get some stuff from it of what to or not do, but in the end, it's gonna come down to the same thing every team has to do.

You can't play this bullshit "run and keep the ball away" thing because the Chiefs are gonna score. It doesn't matter what you do. So you've gotta outscore them.

If Josh Allen plays an MVP level game, it'll be a good close game. If he doesn't they'll lose.

I'm guessing it matters some for non-divisional rivals who don't play every season. It's that much more game tape on what you did right and wrong and preemptively seeing what they might adjust for the next round.

Mahomes apparently watched a bunch of tape on the Browns and a few other potential playoff teams during their bye week and then brought to the table how he wanted to approach them.

Yeah, every team is on the same page when it comes to knowing the other team will adjust and so forth, but that much more tape on a team's strengths and weaknesses has to help some, I'd think, even if it's just a matter of a few plays or wrinkles that could be the difference in the next round.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by mililo4cpa

Bills fans seem to be ignoring these factors, and simply think that "playing better" equates to "these problems have gone away"......news flash: They haven't gone away just because Bills fans want them too

Exactly. Better execution won't produce a different result. That's the real problem. The Bills didn't execute poorly, they simply don't have the personnel to pull it off.

Originally Posted by mililo4cpa

Additionally, Bills fans seem to think that "We can win a shootout....", and maybe they can. But they ignore that they are very one dimensional no differently than the Ravens are one dimension. Both are exceptional in the one dimension they thrive at (Bills passing / Ravens running), but if a team can stop that one dimension, they are sitting ducks.

Yep. I brought this up earlier. The Raiders beat the Chiefs by setting up deep play action and going over the top. The Bills have no credible threat in the running game. PA isn't going to work.

[KChiefs1]

[KChiefs1]

Who is this chick???? WOOD!

[O.city]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

I'm just teasing you. You basically repeated everything they've been saying verbatim.

By the way, do you think the Chiefs are better than they were in week 6? I mean they blew the doors off of the Bucs and beat the Saints, both on the road.

Does Buffalo have even one win like that over the past 6-7 weeks?

I think Josh Allen is playing alot better now than he was then. Whether he can do it Sunday, I dunno. He's never done it on this stage before, so until he does, I'd lean no.

Honestly, for me, this years season didn't really show me anything about KC that I didn't know.

When they show up and give a shit and are locked in, they're double digits better than anyone. As long as Andy and Mahomes are here, they're contenders (favorites) in the AFC.

Ho hum 14 wins later, I feel the same way I felt in September.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by O.city

I think Josh Allen is playing alot better now than he was then. Whether he can do it Sunday, I dunno. He's never done it on this stage before, so until he does, I'd lean no.

Honestly, for me, this years season didn't really show me anything about KC that I didn't know.

When they show up and give a shit and are locked in, they're double digits better than anyone. As long as Andy and Mahomes are here, they're contenders (favorites) in the AFC.

Ho hum 14 wins later, I feel the same way I felt in September.

Who has he played though?

He put up all of those numbers against a lot of mediocre defenses.

If you look at his game logs, he was actually much better at the very beginning of the season, and against some actual competition like the Rams.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/game...298/josh-allen

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by mililo4cpa

Bills fans seem to be ignoring these factors, and simply think that "playing better" equates to "these problems have gone away"......news flash: They haven't gone away just because Bills fans want them too

Yeah, we talked all week about the Browns having no answer for Kelce, and they had no answer for Kelce.

The fun part leading up to every game is reading and listening to all of the theories on the match ups and then seeing if the team figured it out (or if the other team failed to execute on it).

Browns fans brought some of that to the table and were very aware of their team's weaknesses and possible ways they might cover for them, and what they would need to exploit the Chiefs' weaknesses (and if they could).

This week it's "we're different than week 6". Okay..... so, they won't play exactly like they did in week 6. [b]Duh.[/b/]. It would be nice to get a bit deeper on their theories with a shred of awareness when it comes to their strengths and weaknesses outside of "Josh Allen is MVP".

[KChiefs1]

[KChiefs1]

Whole interview: