Narratives That Need to Die

[Marcellus]

Good stuff.

Along with this narrative I would add that not all points scored are created equal. Garbage time points when a team is down 3 scores doesn't really mean anything yet they effect point differential and can skew perceptions.

Points given up when a team is behind, tied, or leading by 8 or less points is a bigger indicator of how effective your defense is.

For example KC's knack for giving up very few 2nd and 3rd quarter points is very large in their ability to consistently win. They have also been good in tight games in the 4th quarter when needed. Obviously the 1st Raiders game is the only exception and one outlier is not a pattern.

Fallacy: Regular season results are truly indicative of playoff success.
Possible Narrative: Any given 11+ win team is primed to upset an experienced playoff team.
The Truth: The playoffs are a different beast and playoff experience matters. A lot.
Examples: Browns, Bills, Ravens for the past two seasons.

Possible Narrative: Point differential matters.
The Truth: It can matter in extreme cases, such as an 11-win Browns team having a negative point differential. It may matter to a certain extent, but is a small part of the overall big picture. It certainly does not matter against non-playoff teams.
Examples: The Bills blowing out non-playoff teams. The Chiefs not blowing out non-playoff teams (or most teams).

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by scho63

Enjoying this lovely Arizona weather?

I heard parts of Phoenix got hail the other day, and then the far north side got snow.

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Good stuff.

Along with this narrative I would add that not all points scored are created equal. Garbage time points when a team is down 3 scores doesn't really mean anything yet they effect point differential and can skew perceptions.

Points given up when a team is behind, tied, or leading by 8 or less points is a bigger indicator of how effective your defense is.

For example KC's knack for giving up very few 2nd and 3rd quarter points is very large in their ability to consistently win. They have also been good in tight games in the 4th quarter when needed. Obviously the 1st Raiders game is the only exception and one outlier is not a pattern.

Good points, added this to the OP.

Originally Posted by O.city

Only one I'd push back on is the "switch flipping".

The Chiefs are about the only damn football team I've seen be able to do it like they do.

I've seen a few people talk about it this week... after weeks of "but point differential!", Cowherd compared the Chiefs to an NBA dynasty and "shutting it down".

The only other example off the top of my head is the Patriots... they would generally keep their foot on the gas all season, but did win a Super Bowl or two after struggling in December.

99% of teams just can't rely on a last minute TD drive to beat the Falcons or the Raiders, etc.... the level of consistency and seemingly being able to do whatever the hell they want on offense when they're backed into a corner is truly remarkable.