***Official 2021 STL Cardinals Thread***

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Yes, thats what was reported at the time but several times when asked about the 2nd year, everyone is very vague or don't give a straight answer to the 2nd year question.

It's literally reported in every publication of the deal. It's not even a question. He has 2 opt outs.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/st-louis...arenado-12643/

And here's fangraphs breaking it all down and discussing the odds of him opting out:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/valuing-...-new-contract/

TLDR: if he stays on ZiPS projections they give him an 79.4% chance of not opting out. If he improves and doesn't follow along the standard age curve regression they give him 49.5% chance of not opting out. In the end, if he improves, they just expect him to leverage his opt outs like Kershaw and get the Cardinals to give him a new deal.

As it stands, Arenado is well on pace to go way past his ZiPS projection of 3.5 WAR for 2021. He's already at 2. Assuming he doesn't get injured and plays at least 150 games he's on pace for 4.6 WAR.