Chiefs How good are the Chiefs chances at the AFC's #1 seed? - Page 19

MMXcalibur · 03:13 PM

Updated: 12/19

Teams that actually matter in this conversation:

Kansas City (10-4) (vs PIT, at CIN, at DEN)

New England (9-5) (vs BUF, vs JAC, at MIA)

Tennessee (9-5) (vs SF, vs MIA, at HOU)

Baltimore (8-5) (vs GB, at CIN, vs LAR, vs PIT)

Buffalo (8-6) (at NE, vs ATL, vs NYJ)

Indianapolis (8-6) (at ARI, vs LV, at JAC)

LA Chargers (8-6) (at HOU, vs DEN, at LV)

---

Being 1 game back with six games to play seems incredibly generous given our shitty tiebreaker situation. I'll put our odds at 99.9999999%

jettio · 12-01-2021, 02:49 PM

Chiefs are 5-0 vs NFC, and lost to Bills, Ravens and Titans. Colts lost to Bucs and Pats lost to Cowboys so if Pats and Colts overtake teams that beat Chiefs, it would not help with tiebreakers.

Seems like Chiefs will need to have better overall record than any other division winner to get a higher seed since unlikely to win any tiebreakers.

Chiefs would have to run table to get #1 seed. I could see all the other AFC teams get to 5 losses, but very unlikely that all of them get to 6 losses.

scho63 · 12-01-2021, 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jettio

Chiefs are 5-0 vs NFC, and lost to Bills, Ravens and Titans.

This makes it very, very hard to win #1 seed.

Coochie liquor · 12-01-2021, 06:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by arrwheader

Sigh....

Not to turn the discussion into Brady hate but

It is inevitable isn't it that TB is going to be back in the SB and MOAR BRADY AND GRONK.

FML

Would love to beat them in a rematch but would rather honestly never play Tom Brady in a game again. He is too lucky and gets favored on top of his talent makes it unfair.

I want the rematch, but I’m sure if it happens the league will stick us with Clete ****ing Blakeman.

**Rausch** · 12-01-2021, 06:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coochie liquor

I want the rematch, but I’m sure if it happens the league will stick us with Clete ****ing Blakeman.

**** that.

Gimme' the Packers or Cards...

mr. tegu · 12-01-2021, 07:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bearcat

Meh, this place is always one extreme or the other and people tend to pump the brakes a bit on it. People were in full panic mode before they even started playing that poorly and now it's smooth sailing with only one "well oiled machine" game in the win streak, acting like nothing ever happened.

The reality is of course in the middle somewhere and not solely about Ws and Ls. If everything was back to normal, the offense would have looked far, far, far better against NYG, far better against the Packers, and better against the Cowboys.

It's not a black and white, the Chiefs have lost all benefit of the doubt, but just pumping the brakes a bit on acting like the defense that was putrid just weeks ago is now amazing because they're playing the likes of Jordan Love and a Cowboys team without their top two receivers (and yes, they are healthy and playing better, "somewhere in between") or that the offense is completely back to normal and it was only the turnovers (and yes, playing far better than October).

Slow to panic, slow to unyielding optimism.

For me personally I was one of the few defending the defense all season and blaming the offense (turnovers mostly) for the early season record. I never bought into the defense being as bad as they looked and I feel validated by my defending of them here. And I just don’t buy into the offense being a 20 ppg unit either like the last four games. I’m definitely not just going all optimistic after a few wins.

I also made three separate Super Bowl bets after each of our last three losses and because the price just kept going up in a good way. Now I’m sitting at I think a +800, +1100, and +1400.

mr. tegu · 12-01-2021, 07:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jettio

Chiefs are 5-0 vs NFC, and lost to Bills, Ravens and Titans. Colts lost to Bucs and Pats lost to Cowboys so if Pats and Colts overtake teams that beat Chiefs, it would not help with tiebreakers.

Seems like Chiefs will need to have better overall record than any other division winner to get a higher seed since unlikely to win any tiebreakers.

Chiefs would have to run table to get #1 seed. I could see all the other AFC teams get to 5 losses, but very unlikely that all of them get to 6 losses.

Interestingly if the three teams that get 5 losses with the rest at least 6, if those three are us, Bengals, and Ravens, with us beating the Bengals, we get the one seed as the Bengals would beat out the Ravens for their division then we beat out the Bengals for the bye. Our loss to the Ravens becomes irrelevant in that scenario.

Eureka · 12-01-2021, 08:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

Interestingly if the three teams that get 5 losses with the rest at least 6, if those three are us, Bengals, and Ravens, with us beating the Bengals, we get the one seed as the Bengals would beat out the Ravens for their division then we beat out the Bengals for the bye. Our loss to the Ravens becomes irrelevant in that scenario.

It's a bit like this.....

**Bearcat** · 12-01-2021, 08:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

For me personally I was one of the few defending the defense all season and blaming the offense (turnovers mostly) for the early season record. I never bought into the defense being as bad as they looked and I feel validated by my defending of them here. And I just don’t buy into the offense being a 20 ppg unit either like the last four games. I’m definitely not just going all optimistic after a few wins.

I also made three separate Super Bowl bets after each of our last three losses and because the price just kept going up in a good way. Now I’m sitting at I think a +800, +1100, and +1400.

Yeah, it's pretty mind boggling that who you play is largely lost on a football message board... of course, it's largely lost on the sports media, because it's their job to make every week exciting, but damn.

Play teams that score 30+/game, your defense isn't going to look great; schedule evens out, so does the defense... and even with the 250 rushing yards and so forth, they weren't even trending to be the worst defense in the league at any point of the season, yet the narrative was "historically bad".

Coochie liquor · 12-02-2021, 07:21 AM

If Kelce, and Hill can stop this from happening, then running the table should be do-able. Someone in the comments mentioned Kelce getting hit in the head by Poyer during the Bills game, and having been on the injury report every week after that. Clean up those 2 players drops and the offense is back.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

htismaqe · 12-02-2021, 07:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coochie liquor

If Kelce, and Hill can stop this from happening, then running the table should be do-able. Someone in the comments mentioned Kelce getting hit in the head by Poyer during the Bills game, and having been on the injury report every week after that. Clean up those 2 players drops and the offense is back.

Bingo.

I posted it a few weeks ago but Kelce and Hill account for like 1/4 of Mahomes' INT's because they've been tipping the ball in the air instead of just dropping passes.

jettio · 12-02-2021, 08:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

Interestingly if the three teams that get 5 losses with the rest at least 6, if those three are us, Bengals, and Ravens, with us beating the Bengals, we get the one seed as the Bengals would beat out the Ravens for their division then we beat out the Bengals for the bye. Our loss to the Ravens becomes irrelevant in that scenario.

That's a good point.

crispystl · 12-02-2021, 09:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

Yup. Let's put it this way. If our offense starts firing correctly and our defense remains tough we are the obvious AFC favorite.

Even now I believe Vegas has us 1st in the AFC for going to the Super Bowl.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+550): With Vita Vea (knee) active, the Bucs defensive front was up to the challenge against league-leading rusher Jonathan Taylor and the Colts. Tampa turned in a total team win with Tom Brady managing the game, and the Bucs passing offense should only improve when Antonio Brown (ankle) gets back and several other key players get healthy.

Kansas City Chiefs (+700): The Chiefs won four straight games headed into a bye with their defense yielding just 11.3 PPG against some dangerous opponents. Patrick Mahomes has committed 14 turnovers during a rough season for a KC offense that is bound to turn the corner eventually.

Buffalo Bills (+800): The Bills have alternated between three bad losses and three impressive wins heading into a crucial MNF matchup with the first-place Patriots. Their defense takes a major hit without elite CB Tre’Davious White (ACL) the rest of the way.

Green Bay Packers (+800): While Aaron Rodgers has been able to battle through a broken toe and silence his critics with elite play in recent weeks, it’s fair to wonder how his lack of mobility might impact Green Bay’s offense down the stretch.

Arizona Cardinals (+900): The Cardinals continued to prove that they’re a complete team by going 2-1 without Kyler Murray (ankle) and DeAndre Hopkins (hamstring) heading into their bye week. They have an easy draw at Chicago next week before hosting the Rams.

New England Patriots (+1100): Facing another shorthanded opponent, the Patriots dominated the Titans for a sixth straight win. Matthew Judon leads a fierce front seven with J.C. Jackson and Jalen Mills shutting down the back end. If Mac Jones plays mistake-free football, New England should continue to be a force.

Dallas Cowboys (+1300): With LT Tyron Smith (ankle) back in the lineup, the Cowboys hung 33 points at home, but Dan Quinn’s defense turned in one of its worst performances in a narrow loss to the Raiders. Amari Cooper (COVID) is expected to return on Thursday night against the Saints but the Cowboys are dealing with another COVID outbreak.

Bills ahead of the shit Packers huh? Interesting. The Packers do have a tougher road, but no way I'd take Buffalo.

Mama Hip Rockets · 12-05-2021, 06:36 PM

Gained on Bengals, Raiders, and Ravens today. Will gain on Broncos tonight and Patriots or Bills tomorrow.

JakeF · 12-05-2021, 06:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mama Hip Rockets

Gained on Bengals, Raiders, and Ravens today. Will gain on Broncos tonight and Patriots or Bills tomorrow.

Amazing

Now, we need Pringle to step up.

Otter · 12-05-2021, 08:56 PM

Pretty sure if the Chiefs win this one all teams in contention will be 8-4.

11-21-2021, 07:21 PM
MMXcalibur Pessimistically optimistic. Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: Denver, CO Casino cash: $-144914	How good are the Chiefs chances at the AFC's #1 seed? Updated: 12/19 Teams that actually matter in this conversation: Kansas City (10-4) (vs PIT, at CIN, at DEN) New England (9-5) (vs BUF, vs JAC, at MIA) Tennessee (9-5) (vs SF, vs MIA, at HOU) Baltimore (8-5) (vs GB, at CIN, vs LAR, vs PIT) Buffalo (8-6) (at NE, vs ATL, vs NYJ) Indianapolis (8-6) (at ARI, vs LV, at JAC) LA Chargers (8-6) (at HOU, vs DEN, at LV) --- Being 1 game back with six games to play seems incredibly generous given our shitty tiebreaker situation. I'll put our odds at 99.9999999% Last edited by MMXcalibur; 12-19-2021 at 03:13 PM..
Posts: 16,747

12-01-2021, 02:49 PM	#271
jettio MVP Join Date: Sep 2002 Casino cash: $4504930	Chiefs are 5-0 vs NFC, and lost to Bills, Ravens and Titans. Colts lost to Bucs and Pats lost to Cowboys so if Pats and Colts overtake teams that beat Chiefs, it would not help with tiebreakers. Seems like Chiefs will need to have better overall record than any other division winner to get a higher seed since unlikely to win any tiebreakers. Chiefs would have to run table to get #1 seed. I could see all the other AFC teams get to 5 losses, but very unlikely that all of them get to 6 losses. __________________ Where Ignorance is Bliss, 'Tis Folly to be Wise. __
Posts: 11,043

12-02-2021, 07:21 AM	#279
Coochie liquor Bolton gonna knock you out Join Date: Mar 2014 Location: They Freed Kartel!! Casino cash: $-817606	If Kelce, and Hill can stop this from happening, then running the table should be do-able. Someone in the comments mentioned Kelce getting hit in the head by Poyer during the Bills game, and having been on the injury report every week after that. Clean up those 2 players drops and the offense is back. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk __________________ 2025 Adopt a Chief - Travis “Swifty Slayer” Kelce The Travis Kelce farewell tour SB MVP incoming!
Posts: 21,685	2 0

12-05-2021, 06:36 PM	#283
Mama Hip Rockets You don't faze me, Gobble. Join Date: Dec 2005 Casino cash: $9915644	Gained on Bengals, Raiders, and Ravens today. Will gain on Broncos tonight and Patriots or Bills tomorrow.
Posts: 13,675	1 0