***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Not following. What do the 52% and 88% numbers he asked about mean if not effectiveness levels?

It's likely a model of the effectiveness of the vaccine vs symptomatic illness AND hospitalization, but it's not really useful data since you already have both values in the previous columns.

In biostats, the hazard ratio (HR, the middle column on the chart) is a probability of an event occurring. In this case, the control group would be the unvaccinated--their chances of hospitalization are 1. The vaccinations' effect on hospitalization is the variable. If they are more likely to be hospitalized, their hazard ratio would be >1. If they are less likely, their hazard ratio would be <1.

Example: Take a pool of 100 athletes that play pro sports and eat a vegan diet. What are the odds of an ACL tear? The event of interest is the ACL tear. If they are more likely to tear their ACL, the HR for the diet is >1. If they are less likely, the HR is <1.

However, all of these measurements have confidence intervals that state with 95% certainty where the probability lies. Example: (0.50-0.60). That means that the analysis shows that there is a 95% chance that the event will occur 0.5 times to 0.6 times as often, which is less likely. We want narrower confidence intervals, because it reduces uncertainty in our hazard ratios.

But, what if the CI crosses 1? That means that there is a 95% probability that it is either more or less likely to occur, which means that you can't state with certainty if the intervention is protective or harmful, and thus, your intervention does not produce a statistically significant result. In this case, because the CI of the hazard ratio crosses 1 for a single shot, we can't say whether or not a single shot has any efficacy.

*Caveat* I have not looked at the sample size here to see if his data is appropriately powered or even if the sample sizes are sufficiently large, don't contain any unnecessary biases, etc. From a cursory look, he needs to refine his explanations.

[Hawker007]

Ok, so I am an idiot when comparing my understanding of this with Hamas' understanding, but not an idiot for having a hard time following the chart. That makes me feel a little better.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Went back and looked at his sources. Here's the info of interest:

A test negative case control design was used to estimate vaccine effectiveness (VE) against symptomatic COVID-19 with the Omicron variant compared to the Delta variant. Here vaccination rates in PCR positive cases are compared to vaccination rates in those who test negative. Individuals who reported symptoms and tested in pillar 2 community testing) between 27 November and 24 December 2021 were included in the analysis. Those who reported recent foreign travel were excluded due to differences in exposure risk and possible misclassification of vaccination status in this group.
Cases were defined as the Omicron variant or Delta variant based on whole genome
sequencing, genotyping, or S-gene target status on PCR testing. The Omicron variant has been associated with a negative S-gene target result on PCR testing with the Taqpath assay whereas with the Delta variant the S-gene target is almost always positive. Vaccine effectiveness was estimated by period after dose 2 and dose 3. Results are presented for 18+ year olds.

To estimate vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation the odds ratios (OR) for symptomatic disease were multiplied by the hazard ratios (HR) for hospitalisation among symptomatic cases: VEhospitalisation= 1-(ORsymptomatic disease x HRhospitalisation

https://assets.publishing.service.go...ity_update.pdf

[eDave]

Whatever thing thing is that I have, it has produced more snot than I thought capable. Jesus.

[Pitt Gorilla]

A friend/teammate of our middle son just had his dad spend over a month in the hospital with pneumonia from covid. Insanely healthy guy.

None of their family had been vaccinated, but that's changed, fortunately.

[Kman34]

My wife tested positive Thursday.. I've had two negative tests.. She has had mild symptoms.. Both of us have been vaxed and boosted.. I feel like I may have already had it and was a-systematic.. Separate bedrooms.. Our pup thinks we have broken up..

This ready messes up Sunday nite fun nite...

[Fish]

JUST IN: New #covid19 testing site at Kauffman Stadium starting Jan 10. Registration/ appointments required. @kmbc https://t.co/ikTSetfrN4

— Emily Holwick KMBC (@EmilyKMBC) January 9, 2022

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by Kman34

My wife tested positive Thursday.. I've had two negative tests.. She has had mild symptoms.. Both of us have been vaxed and boosted.. I feel like I may have already had it and was a-systematic.. Separate bedrooms.. Our pup thinks we have broken up..

This ready messes up Sunday nite fun nite...

Who did the dog pick in the breakup?

[Kman34]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

Who did the dog pick in the breakup?

My wife..

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by Kman34

My wife tested positive Thursday.. I've had two negative tests.. She has had mild symptoms.. Both of us have been vaxed and boosted.. I feel like I may have already had it and was a-systematic.. Separate bedrooms.. Our pup thinks we have broken up..

This ready messes up Sunday nite fun nite...

Once a week? Must be nice.

[BigCatDaddy]

So this mother ****er is no joke. Was vaxed in March and May with Moderna. Wife spent over a week in the hospital with it in July. I only lost my sense of taste for a few months..no other symptoms. Today I feel like I get hit by a bus. My definition of moderate symptoms and the CDC don't exactly jive. Haven't felt up to get tested but I'd say it's highly likely Omnicron.

[IA_Chiefs_fan]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

So this mother ****er is no joke. Was vaxed in March and May with Moderna. Wife spent over a week in the hospital with it in July. I only lost my sense of taste for a few months..no other symptoms. Today I feel like I get hit by a bus. My definition of moderate symptoms and the CDC don't exactly jive. Haven't felt up to get tested but I'd say it's highly likely Omnicron.

Hang in there.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

So this mother ****er is no joke. Was vaxed in March and May with Moderna. Wife spent over a week in the hospital with it in July. I only lost my sense of taste for a few months..no other symptoms. Today I feel like I get hit by a bus. My definition of moderate symptoms and the CDC don't exactly jive. Haven't felt up to get tested but I'd say it's highly likely Omnicron.

Sorry to hear that. Wonder if it isn't the flu? Just speculation but you getting hammered by it after having 2 doses of Moderna and natural infection would be against the grain.

Hope you get to feeling better soon, regardless of what it is.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by TLO

Sorry to hear that. Wonder if it isn't the flu? Just speculation but you getting hammered by it after having 2 doses of Moderna and natural infection would be against the grain.

Hope you get to feeling better soon, regardless of what it is.

It's possible. CVS didn't have any home test today.

[O.city]

That sucks man. We’ve all recovered thankfully. My father in law has it we think he’s not tok bad though has had 3 vaccine shots last I talked to him he was congested