Lions cutting Trey Flowers

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

DE > S

We have a desperate need for bodies at both positions. Personally, I take the DE.

Sure.

And S > IR

You have to weigh the potential return against the odds of actually getting that.

It's how you calculate the settlement value of a lawsuit. If you have a case with say $10 million in potential damages and a 40% chance of actually winning, you have a case worth roughly $4 million dollars.

If you have a case worth $6 million and an 70% chance of winning, your $6 million case is actually worth roughly $4.2 million (after subtracting the costs of litigation, but now we're going too deep in the weeds).

In other words, the more lucrative case is actually the less 'valuable' one.

In this case you have a DE in Flowers who may be a $10 million player if he hits, but he's 35% likely to be that guy. So he's 'worth' $3.5 million. Whereas in Collins case he may be a $5 million dollar player but he's 80% likely to hit that mark so he's 'worth' $4 million.

Such is my calculus anyway. It's the variation in the figures that creates the question. I'm just saying that when it gets down to it, the latter is the guy I'd rather have with the values that I'm assigning them.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Sure.

And S > IR

You have to weigh the potential return against the odds of actually getting that.

It's how you calculate the settlement value of a lawsuit. If you have a case with say $10 million in potential damages and a 40% chance of actually winning, you have a case worth roughly $4 million dollars.

If you have a case worth $6 million and an 70% chance of winning, your $6 million case is actually worth roughly $4.2 million (after subtracting the costs of litigation, but now we're going too deep in the weeds).

In other words, the more lucrative case is actually the less 'valuable' one.

In this case you have a DE in Flowers who may be a $10 million player if he hits, but he's 35% likely to be that guy. So he's 'worth' $3.5 million. Whereas in Collins case he may be a $5 million dollar player but he's 80% likely to hit that mark so he's 'worth' $4 million.

Such is my calculus anyway. It's the variation in the figures that creates the question. I'm just saying that when it gets down to it, the latter is the guy I'd rather have with the values that I'm assigning them.

That's fair.

I minimize my fears of injury, though. I figure if I can get him on the field for 50% of the downs this coming season, he'll stay healthy and it'll be a win.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

That's fair.

I minimize my fears of injury, though. I figure if I can get him on the field for 50% of the downs this coming season, he'll stay healthy and it'll be a win.

See in our situation I would likely overweight the injury concerns.

I mean it ain't like we have a ton of depth behind him if he's truly broken down.

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

See in our situation I would likely overweight the injury concerns.

I mean it ain't like we have a ton of depth behind him if he's truly broken down.

That’s why you sign another guy and draft one….or draft two. I think the money he’s going to get isn’t going to be enough that we would be out of the running.

But the cost of Collins compared to what we’re going to ask him to do….isn’t worth it.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by The Franchise

That’s why you sign another guy and draft one….or draft two. I think the money he’s going to get isn’t going to be enough that we would be out of the running.

But the cost of Collins compared to what we’re going to ask him to do….isn’t worth it.

I think Dan Sorensen, when he was good (and really, from about 2016 to 2019 he was quite good when utilized in the sort of capacity I would be looking to utilize Collins) was absolutely worth $4-5 million.

If you got 2016 Dan Sorensen out of him, you wouldn't think that was a damn good use of $4-5 million in cap? I think Collins could easily give you that level of play.

[BossChief]

Originally Posted by The Franchise

I'd throw him a 2 year deal worth about $10-12 million.

absolutely

Originally Posted by staylor26

I wouldn’t just assume that we lose Ward.

I think he’s the one guy we keep.

I HIGHLY doubt we’re able to keep him. He’s likely going to get paid 10-15m per and has multiple teams interested in him. We aren’t in a position to outbid teams and instead can trust Veach to find the next Ward, Fenton, Sneed,