If the Chiefs took WR Christian Watson at 30…

[Chris Meck]

Here's the thing, and I think a lot of people that don't pay a ton of attention pre draft every year don't get (in my opinion).

WR's aren't like franchise QB's, DE's, or LT's. Those guys you pretty much have to get in the first round with very rare exceptions, and generally high in the first. It's just rare to get an elite talent at those spots that falls. If they do, it's some character concern or something. (like Sam Williams, ahem).

Lots of top flight WR's are not former first rounders. Davante Adams? 2nd round, pick #53. Cooper Kupp? 3rd round #69. Deebo Samuel? 2nd round #36. Stephon Diggs was a fifth rounder! Like Tyreek.

It's not like taking a franchise QB. Half of this 'top tier' will wash out; and lots of these guys people want to say are a 'big drop off' will be much better NFL players.

And some of these guys that are too small, and too slow will be really good. I still wouldn't take Dotson in the first!

[kcbubb]

This is legitimate opinion but it’s all about probability or likelihood of success. Of course you can get a tyreek in the 5th, once every 10 years. But if you go back and look at drafts most of these picks are jags or busts and then a DK Metcalf hits big. That’s why so many of us are pounding the table for jameson bc his burst, change of direction and top end speed pop of the screen. You can see the fit with mahomes and the success of Bama wrs in the past with the training they have at bama and reasonable predict with a high probability that jameson is the next Dk metcalf kind of player from a production stand point for the chiefs.

Pickens on the other hand, just as a comparison, is not a good route runner, undisciplined and unpredictable, makes slow cuts, he has speed but it’s build up speed as a long strider and doesn’t have that turbo button to create separation. It’s hard for me to predict the same kind of success with Pickens. Could it happen, of course, but just trying to predict the highest likelihood. Jameson had 1600 yards and 15 tds in the sec for a reason. He’s electric and a great fit for the offense.

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

Lots of top flight WR's are not former first rounders. Davante Adams? 2nd round, pick #53. Cooper Kupp? 3rd round #69. Deebo Samuel? 2nd round #36. Stephon Diggs was a fifth rounder! Like Tyreek.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by kcbubb

This is legitimate opinion but it’s all about probability or likelihood of success. Of course you can get a tyreek in the 5th, once every 10 years. But if you go back and look at drafts most of these picks are jags or busts and then a DK Metcalf hits big. That’s why so many of us are pounding the table for jameson bc his burst, change of direction and top end speed pop of the screen. You can see the fit with mahomes and the success of Bama wrs in the past with the training they have at bama and reasonable predict with a high probability that jameson is the next Dk metcalf kind of player from a production stand point for the chiefs.

Pickens on the other hand, just as a comparison, is not a good route runner, undisciplined and unpredictable, makes slow cuts, he has speed but it’s build up speed as a long strider and doesn’t have that turbo button to create separation. It’s hard for me to predict the same kind of success with Pickens. Could it happen, of course, but just trying to predict the highest likelihood. Jameson had 1600 yards and 15 tds in the sec for a reason. He’s electric and a great fit for the offense.

It's not really an opinion though. I just showed you in another thread some recent history of the hit rate in the 2nd being near identical to the first round for good receivers. It's a bad strategy to go up and get a WR just to get one in the 1st round. If a guy falls to you that you like, go ahead and take him. If one doesn't, you have a couple of shots in the 2nd as well. This is a pretty nice draft overall for WRs.

I'd say I'm 100% against the Chiefs moving up for a WR in the 1st if it costs more than a 3rd round pick and I would absolutely not do it for an injured player. WR is one of the highest bust positions in the draft. If you're going up for a guy, you better be as certain as you possibly can about the guy. An ACL tear brings an awful lot of uncertainty into the equation. You're far better having those 2 darts to throw at the position in all honesty. At least you have the opportunity to hedge your bets.

[kcbubb]

I could be wrong. We will see. I posted a long reasoning on why I think it’s worth it at the wr position in the mega thread. I’ll sum it up, over 95% of wrs drafted don’t become a wr2 or better in the first year. So, if you love a guy and he’s a fit and been developed by the best college for creating great wrs in the nfl recently, go get him. He also had almost 1600 yards and 15 tds in an injury shortened year in the sec. I believe Jameson’s skill set and preparation makes him a success and that higher probability is worth flipping a 3rd, 4th and 4th next year to move up 10 spots to get him if he’s there.

Originally Posted by kccrow

It's not really an opinion though. I just showed you in another thread some recent history of the hit rate in the 2nd being near identical to the first round for good receivers. It's a bad strategy to go up and get a WR just to get one in the 1st round. If a guy falls to you that you like, go ahead and take him. If one doesn't, you have a couple of shots in the 2nd as well. This is a pretty nice draft overall for WRs.

I'd say I'm 100% against the Chiefs moving up for a WR in the 1st if it costs more than a 3rd round pick and I would absolutely not do it for an injured player. WR is one of the highest bust positions in the draft. If you're going up for a guy, you better be as certain as you possibly can about the guy. An ACL tear brings an awful lot of uncertainty into the equation. You're far better having those 2 darts to throw at the position in all honesty. At least you have the opportunity to hedge your bets.

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by kcbubb

I could be wrong. We will see. I posted a long reasoning on why I think it’s worth it at the wr position in the mega thread. I’ll sum it up, if you and say that over 95% of wrs drafted don’t become a wr2 or better in the first year. So, if you love a guy and he’s a fit and been developed by the best college for creating great wrs in the nfl recently, go get him. He also had almost 1600 yards and 15 tds in an injury shortened year in the sec. I believe Jameson’s skill set and preparation makes him a success and that higher probability is worth flipping a 3rd, 4th and 4th next year to move up 10 spots to get him if he’s there.

well, here's the thing though-he's not likely to be 100% physically in enough time for him to put up WR2 numbers under any circumstances in 2022. Not in this offense. Which negates the whole argument.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

well, here's the thing though-he's not likely to be 100% physically in enough time for him to put up WR2 numbers under any circumstances in 2022. Not in this offense. Which negates the whole argument.

Exactly.

When I objected to taking Williams, I was met with "it's a 10-month recovery that could probably be done in 8".

That's great until you consider that 8 months from now is the END OF NOVEMBER.

If you like the 5th year option and think you can redshirt him for a year, take him at 29.

Trading up should be absolutely off the board.

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Exactly.

When I objected to taking Williams, I was met with "it's a 10-month recovery that could probably be done in 8".

That's great until you consider that 8 months from now is the END OF NOVEMBER.

If you like the 5th year option and think you can redshirt him for a year, take him at 29.

Trading up should be absolutely off the board.

But the playoffs!!!!