Trade down draft thoughts?

[kozzman555]

I know a lot of people are expecting Bert Verch to be aggressive and use a first to trade UP, but what does it look like if he trades down at the start of the draft? I traded down for the first few picks, but then used the extra picks to make some moves in the third/fourth rounds to snag some good players that would be coming off the boards a little early, based off earlier runs on the position.

I think this draft really hits all of our needs. DLine needs revamped? How about two stellar D ends and a plug in D tackle? We traded Tyreek? How about Christian Watson? Our division has ALL of the edge rushers?? Bernhard Raimann steps on at RT. We've got two real good corners and a baller safety, a very interesting LB prospect for a cheap pick, plus some good special teams/depth at the end of the draft.

This draft is so deep, I really think trading down is going to be the best move for us. I've run this PFN Sim many many times, and there's always a lot of quality for us in the 2nd/3rd rounds that will help out a lot more than trading picks away to snag one player in the first. I'm really curious to see if you all would prefer a draft like this or trading up for Jameson Williams or Jermaine Johnson.

Final thoughts, Sam Williams was coming off the board pretty consistently in the early second round with most edge rushers already off the board. PFN seemed to take him over "higher ranked" rushers like Mafe and Drake Jackson fairly often, which is why he was my second pick. I did have to trade UP a couple spots for Watson as the other receivers had already been taken. Zyon and Nick Cross are other players that PFN consistently took over other "higher ranked" DB's like Mario Goodrich and occasionally Kirby Joseph so it may look like a little bit like a reach. Ty Chandler is my fav RB. So he was drafted after a run on RB's left him and one other available in that range. Look through this and flame away


35.
David Ojabo
EDGE Michigan

38.
Sam Williams
EDGE Mississippi

43.
Travis Jones
DT Connecticut

58.
Christian Watson
WR North Dakota State

64.
Bernhard Raimann
OT Central Michigan

94.
Jalyn Armour-Davis
CB Alabama

97.
Damone Clark
LB LSU

103.
Nick Cross
S Maryland

104.
Zyon McCollum
CB Sam Houston State

188.
Ty Chandler
RB North Carolina

233.
Scott Nelson
S Wisconsin

259.
Kevin Austin
WR Notre Dame

[BossChief]

Originally Posted by Chargem

But how many are under contract this year? If you trade back and make 15 picks this year, you need to carry those players on the roster this year for them to be on the roster next year. That's why Nate Taylor says they aren't making 12 picks.

If they trade back, it almost has to be for 2023 draft picks.

This roster isn’t extremely strong after the first 35-40 roster slots.

I don’t think I agree with Nate on this.

[emaw1979]

I'm almost always good for a good trade down but with WR and DE contracts that 5th year becomes huge. It would have to be a lot to trade down IMO.

[Chargem]

Originally Posted by BossChief

This roster isn’t extremely strong after the first 35-40 roster slots.

I don’t think I agree with Nate on this.

To be honest, I'm too lazy to count up the current roster and see.

If they do only take 8 rookies this year, its still not as bad as it sounds going into 2023 with 30 players on the roster, because they currently have 9 picks in the 2023 draft, plus that figure is before tags, ERFA, RFA, new free agents, the 1 year deals some positions are always going to be filled by (fullback, for example).

I do generally like trade backs, but I guess I am hoping for a mix, trade up with those 7s, move back and collect an extra 3, end up with 10 rookies this year?

[ChiefGator]

Originally Posted by emaw1979

I'm almost always good for a good trade down but with WR and DE contracts that 5th year becomes huge. It would have to be a lot to trade down IMO.

This.. I would rather reach at the end of the first then trade down to 38 and lose a cheap year under contract.

[Chargem]

Originally Posted by ChiefGator

This.. I would rather reach at the end of the first then trade down to 38 and lose a cheap year under contract.

Bit of a fallacy, the 5th year is often not that cheap.

[BryanBusby]

Originally Posted by BossChief

That logic is so short sighted.

This team has 22 players under contract in 2023 and that number is counting Frank Clark.

We also only have 39m in cap space and that’s without

Orlando Brown
Mecole Hardman
Juju
Thornhill
Townsend
Fenton

I can’t remember who suggested it, but I like the idea of moving up with one of the firsts and a pick next year and moving down with the other first so we can add another mid rounder this year. I’d be plenty ok moving down with BOTH firsts, too. Especially if we can add a couple more third rounders in the process…even if those picks are in next years draft.

Do that and hope Frank Clark destroys worlds this year so he has trade value next offseason and this team will stay in the catbird seat.

You're high if you think Jones and Clark are staying around a 30m cap hit each and Pats hit remains at 50.

The cap space can easily be flipped to over 100m with some logical moves. Your doom and gloom is a non-factor.

[chiefforlife]

Originally Posted by Chargem

Bit of a fallacy, the 5th year is often not that cheap.

While this is true, remember if the player is good enough to exercise the 5th year option, its still cheaper than signing him to a second contract. Gives the team leverage as well.

[Nightfyre]

I have experimented with the concept of trading down as follows, and enjoyed the mock experience:

Pick 29, 2023R1, 2023R4 with NYJ for 35, 38, 69, 2023R3 (Rich Hill trade valuation model indicates this trade favors the Chiefs by roughly the value of pick 109)
Pick 30, 2024R1 with SEA for 40, 41, 72, 109, 2023R3 (Rich Hill trade valuation model indicates this trade favor the Chiefs by roughly the value of pick 113)

There could be competition for QBs at the end of R1, and I feel the fifth year option attached to R1 picks requires a tad of premium.

Given the depth of the class, this adds a load of starters or potential starters to the roster.

I have attached a sample draft to illustrate the scenario in another way (I only ran 4 rounds.)

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by BryanBusby

You're high if you think Jones and Clark are staying around a 30m cap hit each and Pats hit remains at 50.

The cap space can easily be flipped to over 100m with some logical moves. Your doom and gloom is a non-factor.

BossChief has been trading down and making 20 picks in his mock draft simulators, so he’s convinced the Chiefs making that many picks makes sense.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by BryanBusby

You're high if you think Jones and Clark are staying around a 30m cap hit each and Pats hit remains at 50.

The cap space can easily be flipped to over 100m with some logical moves. Your doom and gloom is a non-factor.

Yep. Clark is almost assuredly a cut in '23 and I think Jones gets moved or extended and restructured. With the Chiefs looking so hard at Wyatt, it does make one wonder if they intend to move on from Jones sooner rather than later.

[BossChief]

Originally Posted by staylor26

BossChief has been trading down and making 20 picks in his mock draft simulators, so he’s convinced the Chiefs making that many picks makes sense.

I don’t have a single one with that many unless it was for fun and labeled as such. That said, I won’t be surprised if we make 10 picks or as high as 14…depending on how things fall. The whole overall number of picks is skewed because 4 picks are in the 7th round and hold little to no value in trade ups and have only basic utility value outside of drafting guys that will possibly be placed on pup and IR like the lBer from LSU, as one example.

When I trade back in the simulators, I usually balance the amount of picks out to keep the total number reasonable (10-12) while adding more picks in the second and third rounds because that’s where I feel the meat and orators of this draft are.

In the real draft, I feel the most likely scenario is for us to move up a few slots from 29 and then move a few slots down from 30 to recoup the pick we used to move up. Like picking at 24 and 37 while moving up a couple slots in the second and third.

[BossChief]

Originally Posted by BryanBusby

You're high if you think Jones and Clark are staying around a 30m cap hit each and Pats hit remains at 50.

The cap space can easily be flipped to over 100m with some logical moves. Your doom and gloom is a non-factor.

No doom and gloom involved. I’m more optimistic than most of how the next 3-4 years will play out because I trust the 3 headed monster of Andy, Pat and Brett.

Frank will be gone and Jones will get another extension or he will be traded. Depending on what he does in 2022.

Not everyone will agree, but I think this draft has more talent than most and this team can set itself up nicely by filling out this roster with guys from this class.

If we are able to get 5-6 contributors from this class, that will allow us to take some big swings in FA the next 3-4 years while retaining our own guys that we chose to keep. Veach likes those kinds of offseasons, obviously…look at the big deals he gives out every offseason.

[BryanBusby]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Yep. Clark is almost assuredly a cut in '23 and I think Jones gets moved or extended and restructured. With the Chiefs looking so hard at Wyatt, it does make one wonder if they intend to move on from Jones sooner rather than later.

And realistically, they probably should. Let some other team buy high on CJ and get the DL younger.

[FRCDFED]

Originally Posted by kozzman555

That's the dumbest take I've heard yet. Because no first round draft pick has ever busted. And no QB taken in the 6th has ever gone on to do anything. Tyreek Hill was taken #1 overall, right? You've been playing too much Madden or something.

Traditionally what I said stands to be true. Yes first round picks are a crap shoot. No. Reek wasn't taken #1 overall. Your examples are anomalies. We got lucky with Tyreek falling for off field conduct. First round picks (or closer to the first round) are generally more talented players. As someone else said this draft might have several solid players from the middle rounds. That still doesn't refute the fact that the talent level is higher to those that are typically drafted at or near the first round.

Careful, you're showing your age with the Madden reference (which made no sense btw).

Now say something more intelligent please. Regarding the actual topic.