Do you trust Veach/Reid to draft WR or DE?

[emaw1979]

Everyone is pretty excited and rightfully so to have 6 top 100 draft picks in this incredibly deep draft. Two of our biggest needs are DE and WR and two of the deepest position groups in the draft. This couldn't be more perfect, right?

I'm starting to get a little nervous because this draft may be the difference between setting the franchise up for years of continued success or the end of a mini-dynasty. Given this team's draft history of DE and WR under Reid, I am a little worried. I fully trust them at drafting G/C positions and CBs anywhere in the draft. Their record with QB is pretty dang good as well. It's just CB and pass rush that I'm concerned about with them.


Reid/Dorsey

2013 DE Mike Catapano 7th...throw away pick. 2 Career sacks.
2014 DE Dee Ford. 1st round pick. Played more than 6 games twice in his 8 year career. Had 1 pro bowl season in 2018. Is he considered a bust?
2015 WR Chris Conley 3rd round. Was drafted more on potential. Best season so far for him was in Jacksonville 47/775/5.
2016 WR DeMarcus Robinson 4th...Mr Backwards. Role Player at best.
2016 WR Tyreek Hill 5th. Accidently ran into greatness. Was drafted as KR and the plan was to use him primarily as an RB.
2016 DE Dadi Nicolas 6th...
2017 DE Tanoh Kpass 2nd...bust. I'd have liked to see him with Spags his entire career though instead of the previous cluster ****.
2017 WR Jehu Chesson 4th...

Reid/Veach

2018 DE Beeland Speaks 2nd (traded up for this loser) BUST
2018 WR/CB/KR Tremon Smith 6th...I don't remember if he was CB then they moved him to WR or vice versa.
2019 WR Mecole Hardman 2nd BUST. The guy has all the speed and talent to be a very good WR but skips out on working out with Mahomes in the off-season and never seems to be on the same page as Mahomes.
2020 DE Michael Danna 5th. He plays because they have garbage at DE. Not a starter level but role type player, which is fine for a 5th rounder.
2021 DE Joshua Kaindoh 4th. Can a 4th rounder be a bust? MIA
2021 WR Cornell Powell 5th. Can a 5th rounder be a bust? MIA

Obviously, Reid did draft some good players at those positions in Philly.
DE Derrick Burgess
DE Trent Cole
WR Desean Jackson
WR Jeremy Macklin
WR Jason Avant

[kccrow]

MVS's contract is still far too big for what he's shown. Even if you cut him after this year, that means this year cost you $8.88 million. Why on Earth pay that for a guy that has struggled to break 30 receptions?

He's a guy that I'd have expected to make $2 million at best, PER.

[Chargem]

Originally Posted by kccrow

MVS's contract is still far too big for what he's shown. Even if you cut him after this year, that means this year cost you $8.88 million. Why on Earth pay that for a guy that has struggled to break 30 receptions?

He's a guy that I'd have expected to make $2 million at best, PER.

The last couple of years, it feels like the Chiefs have been forced to throw the plan out of the window and just "react" sometimes, which in some ways is a failing by Veach but in other ways, I like what he has achieved given the circumstance.

For example, no way the Chiefs could have known they would need to replace both tackles going into 2021. If the Devante Adams deal gets done right on opening day of free agency, or if the Chiefs knew that they could not afford Tyreek pre free agency, I think our WR group looks different, better than this and does not include MVS.

When you look at some of the deals given out though (Kirk), I don't think the MVS one is that bad...

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by JPH83

I honestly don't think it makes as much sense as it seems to. If your QB makes 1/4 of your cap, then yes, sacrifices have to me made, but if you have an elite QB just give him every opportunity to continue to be elite, don't ask him to carry everything just because maybe he can.

If you have to make sacrifices then work back from areas you feel have a lower value/impact or where you can develop players like CB and do everything you can to limit any more Frank Clarks.

Well just saying "Draft/develop cheap players and don't spend money on bad ones" is the easy answer, yes.

But let's assume a reasonable amount of draft busts and dead money here.

If you have a 'representative' amount of chaff elsewhere on the roster, you're gonna need to cut corners here and there. It's just the nature of a cap league.

And if/when that is the case, I'm going to do it at WR. Because Patrick Mahomes can't do shit to keep the opposing WR from getting open - but he can throw HIS open. So I'm not going to cut corners on DBs when I don't have a force multiplier that can make them better than they are.

Now if I had Ed Reed back there, I'd tailor my response somewhat. But speaking generally, you have to focus more cap/capital on areas that Mahomes CAN'T directly impact while letting his talent raise the level of those players who play positions he CAN impact.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by kccrow

For starters, RB was absolutely not the Chiefs biggest need heading into the 2020 draft. They really needed another pass rusher and a X WR to replace Watkins. They should have drafted Tee Higgins all day long, he was 100% the best prospect on the board. Yetur Gross-Matos and A.J. Epenesa were also relatively highly thought of pass rushers that were available. All 3 were rated in the top 27 or so players by almost everyone and Higgins above the pass rushers by most.

Clyde wasn't even the 1st RB by almost everyone either and he was 3rd or 4th on plenty of boards. The Chiefs took an enormous shot in the dark on Clyde but he's proven for sure that Higgins should have been the pick and he shouldn't have been the first RB off the board either. At least he looks better than Gross Matos and Epenesa, so there's that, and I was really quite high on Epenesa.

Yeah, that little streak there where our first picks of the draft were Speaks - Hardman - Clyde is gonna sting for awhile.

All you can do is learn from it and move on.

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by kccrow

MVS's contract is still far too big for what he's shown. Even if you cut him after this year, that means this year cost you $8.88 million. Why on Earth pay that for a guy that has struggled to break 30 receptions?

He's a guy that I'd have expected to make $2 million at best, PER.

Well those are some ridiculous expectations considering the WR market.

[Wilson8]

I can appreciate the questions about the draft and do we trust the Veach/Reid team of being able to draft a WR or DE.

Brett Veach is only 44 years old and has only served in the role of GM since the middle of 2017. I think he has made some mistakes in the past but has learned from that.

In Breeland Speaks (2018 draft), Brett fell in love with a defensive lineman that was able to stay on his feet. Breeland was 6-3, 285 pounds and was not strong and powerful or fast and explosive. Speaks struggled with the Chiefs and then with the Raiders, Cowboys, Giants, and Bills.

The Mecole Hardman 2019 draft happened at the same time as Tyreek Hill's domestic issues were going on. Mecole was fast, elusive, and could return punts and kickoffs as well as be a receiver. People want more from Hardman, but he has helped the Chiefs and will probably be even better in this coming season.

Brett Veach is learning and growing, and this 2022 draft will be even better.

[Rasputin]

I know DE & WR are the sexy pick but I want us to beef up the D line even with our top two picks or trade up get a DE or DL but we need guys that can get penetration up front and win in the trenches.


I don't think we are talking DL enough and I'd like to know thoughts who we could get or what can we do to make an impact player on our front line next to Jones

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by staylor26

Well those are some ridiculous expectations considering the WR market.

You're not wrong about the market being high, but I disagree about the market aligning with what MVS received.

Rashard Higgens has had similar production in Cleveland and signed with Carolina for vet minimum. The same goes for James Washington signing in Dallas. Neither of those guys are as fast nor had quite the explosive plays but overall they had very similar production on the whole. Cedrick Wilson signed with Miami for less and had way better production last year in Dallas. DJ Chark signed a one-year deal for $10 million and is 10x more productive in his career.

I feel like Veach may have got hosed. I truly hope I'm wrong on MVS and he earns that check. He's been less productive than Pringle and he had Aaron Rodgers at QB, so really there aren't many excuses for him. At over 8 million per season in cash costs, he better step his game up big time. I don't know, we'll have to see the product on the field with Mahomes in this offense.

[staylor26]

“DJ Chark signed a one-year deal for $10 million and is 10x more productive in his career”

10x more huh? That’s beyond hyperbole.

DJ Chark: 4 seasons 2,042 yards 15 TDs

MVS: 4 seasons 2,153 yards 13 TDs

Don’t get me wrong, I’d prefer Chark as well, but he was signed before Tyreek was traded.

When you realize that nobody has more 40+ yard receptions since 2018 than MVS other than Tyreek Hill, it’s really not difficult to understand why they went out and signed him when they did.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by staylor26

“DJ Chark signed a one-year deal for $10 million and is 10x more productive in his career”

10x more huh? That’s beyond hyperbole.

DJ Chark: 4 seasons 2,042 yards 15 TDs

MVS: 4 seasons 2,153 yards 13 TDs

Don’t get me wrong, I’d prefer Chark as well, but he was signed before Tyreek was traded.

When you realize that nobody has more 40+ yard receptions since 2018 than MVS other than Tyreek Hill, it’s really not difficult to understand why they went out and signed him when they did.

It is hyperbole but Chark did do the bulk of that damage in 2 seasons (126 rec 1,714 yds 13 TDs). Injuries are the reason Chark hasn't become a star. MVS has never looked anywhere near as good as healthy Chark. And you're right though, Chark was like the 1st WR signed in FA. It still shows market value though and we both know Chark has been a lot better when healthy than MVS and it isn't very close. The problem to me is MVS got a contract nearly as high as Chark's in the 1st year. I am hoping he breaks out here, he'll never have a better opportunity.

[staylor26]

Yes, Chark has been the better player when healthy. But that is also part of the equation in terms of the contract he got. Let’s not pretend that he wouldn’t have gotten 17+ per if he weren’t coming off a serious injury with concerns about his availability.

Also, Chark was one of the very few bargains at WR this year. He was an anomaly in this WR market.

[JPH83]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Well just saying "Draft/develop cheap players and don't spend money on bad ones" is the easy answer, yes.

But let's assume a reasonable amount of draft busts and dead money here.

If you have a 'representative' amount of chaff elsewhere on the roster, you're gonna need to cut corners here and there. It's just the nature of a cap league.

And if/when that is the case, I'm going to do it at WR. Because Patrick Mahomes can't do shit to keep the opposing WR from getting open - but he can throw HIS open. So I'm not going to cut corners on DBs when I don't have a force multiplier that can make them better than they are.

Now if I had Ed Reed back there, I'd tailor my response somewhat. But speaking generally, you have to focus more cap/capital on areas that Mahomes CAN'T directly impact while letting his talent raise the level of those players who play positions he CAN impact.

Sure he can't, but he can put up a mountain of points that puts excessive pressure on the opposing QB and requires them to be perfect. I can see your logic. My perspective is I'd rather ask their QB to be perfect to keep up, rather than ask our QB, as great as he is, to continue to be perfect.

I don't really understand your position on DBs. My understanding was you've been happy with us devoting little resource to it, a position I've come round to.

What do we know about this team? The coaching unit can develop DBs (or at least CBs) to an extent that high draft picks, cap space and trades etc are less essential there. We have a young LB group that has shown a lot of potential and has improved and is currently cheap. We have QB that with elite receiving options is very hard to stay with. We have a DL that is absolutely pathetic.

The gamble you're taking is that Mahomes can continue to make average players great and a better DL gives him back the ball a lot more, my gamble is that continuing to patch up a DL and pair with an elite receiving core is preferable.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by kccrow

It is hyperbole but Chark did do the bulk of that damage in 2 seasons (126 rec 1,714 yds 13 TDs). Injuries are the reason Chark hasn't become a star. MVS has never looked anywhere near as good as healthy Chark. And you're right though, Chark was like the 1st WR signed in FA. It still shows market value though and we both know Chark has been a lot better when healthy than MVS and it isn't very close. The problem to me is MVS got a contract nearly as high as Chark's in the 1st year. I am hoping he breaks out here, he'll never have a better opportunity.

I'll quibble with you a bit here.

The problem with MVS, and the reason he got a nice deal, is that at times he HAS looked that good.

He's just such a high variance player. He can look like a potential superstar one game and a training camp cut the next. And ultimately I'm of the mind that this sort of thing stabilizes after about 50 NFL games so I think there's a pretty good chance that this is just who MVS is.

But you can actually see some real stud potential in there. There isn't a raw tool he doesn't have. Even the hands thing is overblown and based largely on one god-awful season when he clearly had a mental block (same thing Cooper went through like 4 years ago).

I think the deal is about 20% too high. And yeah, I'd have preferred Chark over MVS. But the MVS deal does have some potential upside baked into it that the Chark deal doesn't. He doesn't have to take much of a step forward to be worth next year's cap figure and hell, it's possible that year 3 figure is in play if he just finds some chemistry with Mahome.

Whereas if Chark plays well, he's going to FA. Or getting the tag.

I was hopeful the whole offseason that Veach would go out there and find young veteran players who are undervalued and sign them to 3-4 year deals with some escape hatches and MVS fits that profile perfectly. So does Reid. So does ****ing Kyzir White but we don't talk about Kyzir White.

There's a clear logic to taking MVS at 3 years over Chark at 1 and it's a logic I can get behind.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by JPH83

Sure he can't, but he can put up a mountain of points that puts excessive pressure on the opposing QB and requires them to be perfect. I can see your logic. My perspective is I'd rather ask their QB to be perfect to keep up, rather than ask our QB, as great as he is, to continue to be perfect.

I don't really understand your position on DBs. My understanding was you've been happy with us devoting little resource to it, a position I've come round to.

What do we know about this team? The coaching unit can develop DBs (or at least CBs) to an extent that high draft picks, cap space and trades etc are less essential there. We have a young LB group that has shown a lot of potential and has improved and is currently cheap. We have QB that with elite receiving options is very hard to stay with. We have a DL that is absolutely pathetic.

The gamble you're taking is that Mahomes can continue to make average players great and a better DL gives him back the ball a lot more, my gamble is that continuing to patch up a DL and pair with an elite receiving core is preferable.

Because it's an easy analogue for comparison's sake. Like you, I'm far more concerned with the DL. But when I'm trying to make a demonstration, I'm going to try to compare apples/apples and when comparing Patricks impact on the offense w/ his relative inability in directly impact the defense, talking secondaries is the cleanest way to do it.

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I'll quibble with you a bit here.

The problem with MVS, and the reason he got a nice deal, is that at times he HAS looked that good.

He's just such a high variance player. He can look like a potential superstar one game and a training camp cut the next. And ultimately I'm of the mind that this sort of thing stabilizes after about 50 NFL games so I think there's a pretty good chance that this is just who MVS is.

But you can actually see some real stud potential in there. There isn't a raw tool he doesn't have. Even the hands thing is overblown and based largely on one god-awful season when he clearly had a mental block (same thing Cooper went through like 4 years ago).

I think the deal is about 20% too high. And yeah, I'd have preferred Chark over MVS. But the MVS deal does have some potential upside baked into it that the Chark deal doesn't. He doesn't have to take much of a step forward to be worth next year's cap figure and hell, it's possible that year 3 figure is in play if he just finds some chemistry with Mahome.

Whereas if Chark plays well, he's going to FA. Or getting the tag.

I was hopeful the whole offseason that Veach would go out there and find young veteran players who are undervalued and sign them to 3-4 year deals with some escape hatches and MVS fits that profile perfectly. So does Reid. So does ****ing Kyzir White but we don't talk about Kyzir White.

There's a clear logic to taking MVS at 3 years over Chark at 1 and it's a logic I can get behind.

If MVS does enough to want to keep him, that deal will look like a steal in 2023.