Thibodeaux or J.Johnson, realistically

**chiefforlife** · 04-26-2022, 03:52 PM

Whats it going to cost and is it worth it? Would you do it?

Almost guaranteed to trade out, Carolina at 6.
This is their only pick until 137. They have a lot of holes and need more than 1 guy. Have stated they are open to trade down.

#6 is valued at 446. It is believed that trading down from the top is not going to be worth what it has been in the past and few teams are willing to trade up. Perhaps allowing a discount.

Chiefs really want a game changing DE and are willing to go up and get one!

Chiefs offer (A) 29 and 30. Value of 399 in exchange for 446? This seems like a big discount, not sure Carolina takes it.

Chiefs offer (B) 29, 50, 62 and 135. Value of 420 in exchange for 446. Slight discount and gives Carolina 4 picks before their current 137. They accept this offer, happy to still have a 1 and two 2s plus 135.

Chiefs draft Thibodeaux or Jermaine Johnson! Big win for the pass rush!

Stay with me now, thats not all...

Atlanta did NOT take a QB at 8 as they felt they could trade back into the end of round one, just need to get ahead of Detroit. Perfect!

Chiefs trade 30, value 196 to Atlanta for 43 and 74, value 202. They are willing to pay a slight mark up to jump Detroit and get that 5th year.

Chiefs now have Thibodeaux or J. Johnson at 6 plus 43, 74, 94, 103, 121, 233, 243, 251, 259.

Thats pretty sweet if you ask me. Not sure if we would pull off trading 30 to Atlanta but I feel pretty confident in the cost of going up to get one of the DEs.

If we had a deal for 30 I believe its a no brainer trade. Its way more scary if we dont trade 30.
That would leave us with 6, 30, 94, 103, 121, 233, 243, 251 and 259. I think we could work with that too.

Realistically what it would cost. Now who's on board?

kccrow · 04-26-2022, 04:04 PM

29, 30, and 94 are 440. Don't know that Carolina will nix a deal based on the equivalent of a 6th-round pick differential.

I'd rather give up 2 1sts and a 3rd than a 1st, 2 2nds, and a 4th as you have outlined but that's my preference. I guess I just like the value of 2 2's over a 1 and 3 in this draft. I feel like you're more likely to hit on both those 2's than you are both a 1 and a late 3.

Slinging shit at the wall here mostly. I just really like both players but I'm not sure I'd go to 6 for Johnson. Thibs, yes. Johnson I'm probably maxing at 12 to Minnesota if he's there.

**chiefforlife** · 04-26-2022, 04:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kccrow

29, 30, and 94 are 440. Don't know that Carolina will nix a deal based on the equivalent of a 6th-round pick differential.

I'd rather give up 2 1sts and a 3rd than a 1st, 2 2nds, and a 4th as you have outlined but that's my preference. I guess I just like the value of 2 2's over a 1 and 3 in this draft. I feel like you're more likely to hit on both those 2's than you are both a 1 and a late 3.

Slinging shit at the wall here mostly. I just really like both players but I'm not sure I'd go to 6 for Johnson. Thibs, yes. Johnson I'm probably maxing at 12 to Minnesota if he's there.

I like keeping the 2s also. Ideally they settle for the two 1s but I just felt it was not quite enough.

I really went into this thinking trade up with 29 and back with 30.

We end up basically trading 29 and 30 for 6.

50 and 62 for 43 and 74. And still have 94,103,121 and the 7s

Of course that assumes we can trade 30.

mkp785 · 04-26-2022, 04:31 PM

I would try for both firsts this year and add on next year's 2nd (which is like getting a 3rd) to get Thibs in red and gold. That should be enough. They get 3 picks and can probably still get a QB while picking up the LT they desperately need in addition to grabbing another top 60 pick next year.

We get (hopefully) the next Myles Garrett.

**The Franchise** · 04-26-2022, 04:32 PM

Here's the problem with trading 29, 50, 62 and 135 to move up to 6....

You're not guaranteed to have a trade partner at 30. And even then....you're behind the 8 ball because they know you don't pick again until 94. They can offer you less and if you don't take it....you're ****ed.

If you're going to trade up...I'd rather offer them 29 and 30....and a 2nd round next year to go along with it. You at least still have 50, 62, 94 and 103 which gives you 5 players in basically the top 100.

**chiefforlife** · 04-26-2022, 04:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Franchise

Here's the problem with trading 29, 50, 62 and 135 to move up to 6....

You're not guaranteed to have a trade partner at 30. And even then....you're behind the 8 ball because they know you don't pick again until 94. They can offer you less and if you don't take it....you're ****ed.

If you're going to trade up...I'd rather offer them 29 and 30....and a 2nd round next year to go along with it. You at least still have 50, 62, 94 and 103 which gives you 5 players in basically the top 100.

Yes, I agree I would be nervous as hell about being stuck at 30 with no seconds. I feel like there could be at least a verbal agreement with Atlanta for 30 though, if things fell the way they appear to.

Mostly I just thought it was interesting to see what it would cost for one of those guys and where it would leave us.

**The Franchise** · 04-26-2022, 04:47 PM

I bet you could get away with offering them 29, 30 and 103. That's 434 in value and 6 is only worth 446. If not...then send them a 4th or 5th in 2023. Or flip it and offer them a 4th this year and a 3rd next year.

Nightfyre · 04-26-2022, 10:00 PM

No one is paying chart value to move up this year, least of all to a desperate Carolina FO

Kiimo · 04-26-2022, 10:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nightfyre

No one is paying chart value to move up this year, least of all to a desperate Carolina FO

Actually Carolina fans and media all think they will trade down if all three tackles of Cross, Neal and Ekwonu are gone which has a pretty decent chance of happening.

**BossChief** · 04-26-2022, 10:33 PM

If you believe Thibs and Jameson are going to be great players in our system. Not just good, but GREAT…

We trade up for Thibs and don’t use pick 30, but instead use a first and comp third next year along with 29 and 103 this year to move up. Schefter said that teams looking to move up can likely do so at a discount this year, so I honestly don’t think that’s a bad trade off with that considered. That’s 41 points this year and at face value next year close to another 40 points, if you give face value for the last pick in the first (32.07) and last pick in the third (6.87)

Pick 6 is worth 77.84.

All the picks offered have a face value of close to 80.

That leaves us with the following picks AND Kayvon Thibodeaux
30
50
62
94
121
135
233
243
251
259

Veach isn’t done yet

Take 30 - 34.17 pts
and 62 - 14.62 pts
And 94 - 7.17 pts

55.98 points gets us up to pick 14 by the chart, but a discount is being talked about so those picks may get us to 12 or 13 if Jameson makes it that far.

That leaves us with Kayvon Thibodeaux AND Jameson Williams and the following picks

50
121
135
233
243
251
259

Veach can probably get 2-3 more starters out of those scraps.

Time to rock this ****ing league.

All original picks next year except our first.

Does that get us a better outcome than sitting and making our picks from their original slots? I think Jameson and Mahomes could be equally as good a pairing as Tyreek and Mahomes. I’m not sure who I’d compare Thibs style to…but if motivated and playing next to Chris Jones, he could be devastating off the edge. That element in a defense raises the level of everyone else. No time to run wasp.

Dante84 · 04-26-2022, 10:51 PM

Isn’t the hypothetical move to 6 predicated on the idea that Carolina is trying to accrue more picks for this year?

I love the above outcome but I don’t buy them taking that deal.

**BossChief** · 04-26-2022, 11:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dante84

Isn’t the hypothetical move to 6 predicated on the idea that Carolina is trying to accrue more picks for this year?

I love the above outcome but I don’t buy them taking that deal.

You’re right.

The points would match up to pick 5 with the Giants, better.

That’s almost perfect point trade, too. KC comes away +.46 points nearly perfect. To make it perfect, we would also add picks 243 and 259.

I know it’s unlikely this happens, but if it does that’s probably very very close to what the final product looks like.

Dante84 · 04-26-2022, 11:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BossChief

You’re right.

The points would match up to pick 5 with the Giants, better.

That’s almost perfect point trade, too. KC comes away +.46 points nearly perfect. To make it perfect, we would also add picks 243 and 259.

I know it’s unlikely this happens, but if it does that’s probably very very close to what the final product looks like.

Can you imagine Brett wheelin’ and dealin’ like that? Would be so wild.

**BossChief** · 04-26-2022, 11:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dante84

Can you imagine Brett wheelin’ and dealin’ like that? Would be so wild.

zoom out and look at it from a cap savings perspective, as well. HUGE , EARTH MOVING VALUE.

Think of how much that impacts the cap.

Top end WRs are currently making 25-30m per year and edge guys make the same. In terms of a draft picks value in relation to the salary cap, guys like Jameson Williams and Kayvon Thibidoux offer MAX value because of that alone. If they truly end up being special players, that’s 50-60m in yearly value at the price of a rookie contract for their slot.

THATS LITERALLY LIKE GETTING A QB ON A ROOKIE CONTRACT KIND OF GOOD.

Sorry…but this is kind of exciting to think about.

mkp785 · 04-27-2022, 01:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BossChief

You’re right.

The points would match up to pick 5 with the Giants, better.

That’s almost perfect point trade, too. KC comes away +.46 points nearly perfect. To make it perfect, we would also add picks 243 and 259.

I know it’s unlikely this happens, but if it does that’s probably very very close to what the final product looks like.

I think the NYG, while wanting more picks I'm sure are more focused on taking advantage of the fact that they already have 2 top ten picks THIS year...along with a ton of holes. If this regime is intent on keeping Daniel Jones then they need to get him top flight help. Which imo opinion means they gotta go Oline @ 5.

Now, maybe they can be talked out of that 2nd pick but idk. I feel that CAR, WFT and maybe SEA are our best targets. Thibs probably won't last past ATL and the Jets won't be passing on him twice.

Carolina is our best bet for him-if Veach wants him. Which I hope he does.

04-26-2022, 03:52 PM
chiefforlife Colorado Chief Fan Join Date: Feb 2006 Casino cash: $5493147	Thibodeaux or J.Johnson, realistically Whats it going to cost and is it worth it? Would you do it? Almost guaranteed to trade out, Carolina at 6. This is their only pick until 137. They have a lot of holes and need more than 1 guy. Have stated they are open to trade down. #6 is valued at 446. It is believed that trading down from the top is not going to be worth what it has been in the past and few teams are willing to trade up. Perhaps allowing a discount. Chiefs really want a game changing DE and are willing to go up and get one! Chiefs offer (A) 29 and 30. Value of 399 in exchange for 446? This seems like a big discount, not sure Carolina takes it. Chiefs offer (B) 29, 50, 62 and 135. Value of 420 in exchange for 446. Slight discount and gives Carolina 4 picks before their current 137. They accept this offer, happy to still have a 1 and two 2s plus 135. Chiefs draft Thibodeaux or Jermaine Johnson! Big win for the pass rush! Stay with me now, thats not all... Atlanta did NOT take a QB at 8 as they felt they could trade back into the end of round one, just need to get ahead of Detroit. Perfect! Chiefs trade 30, value 196 to Atlanta for 43 and 74, value 202. They are willing to pay a slight mark up to jump Detroit and get that 5th year. Chiefs now have Thibodeaux or J. Johnson at 6 plus 43, 74, 94, 103, 121, 233, 243, 251, 259. Thats pretty sweet if you ask me. Not sure if we would pull off trading 30 to Atlanta but I feel pretty confident in the cost of going up to get one of the DEs. If we had a deal for 30 I believe its a no brainer trade. Its way more scary if we dont trade 30. That would leave us with 6, 30, 94, 103, 121, 233, 243, 251 and 259. I think we could work with that too. Realistically what it would cost. Now who's on board?
Posts: 5,717

04-26-2022, 04:04 PM	#2
kccrow MVP Join Date: Oct 2011 Location: Michigan Casino cash: $-1240000	29, 30, and 94 are 440. Don't know that Carolina will nix a deal based on the equivalent of a 6th-round pick differential. I'd rather give up 2 1sts and a 3rd than a 1st, 2 2nds, and a 4th as you have outlined but that's my preference. I guess I just like the value of 2 2's over a 1 and 3 in this draft. I feel like you're more likely to hit on both those 2's than you are both a 1 and a late 3. Slinging shit at the wall here mostly. I just really like both players but I'm not sure I'd go to 6 for Johnson. Thibs, yes. Johnson I'm probably maxing at 12 to Minnesota if he's there.
Posts: 14,100

04-26-2022, 04:31 PM	#4
mkp785 Banned Join Date: Jan 2017 Location: Hawaii Casino cash: $7680400	I would try for both firsts this year and add on next year's 2nd (which is like getting a 3rd) to get Thibs in red and gold. That should be enough. They get 3 picks and can probably still get a QB while picking up the LT they desperately need in addition to grabbing another top 60 pick next year. We get (hopefully) the next Myles Garrett.
Posts: 5,974

04-26-2022, 04:32 PM	#5
The Franchise Most Valuable Villain Join Date: Dec 2006 Casino cash: $2065047	Here's the problem with trading 29, 50, 62 and 135 to move up to 6.... You're not guaranteed to have a trade partner at 30. And even then....you're behind the 8 ball because they know you don't pick again until 94. They can offer you less and if you don't take it....you're ****ed. If you're going to trade up...I'd rather offer them 29 and 30....and a 2nd round next year to go along with it. You at least still have 50, 62, 94 and 103 which gives you 5 players in basically the top 100.
Posts: 92,316	3 0

04-26-2022, 04:47 PM	#7
The Franchise Most Valuable Villain Join Date: Dec 2006 Casino cash: $2065047	I bet you could get away with offering them 29, 30 and 103. That's 434 in value and 6 is only worth 446. If not...then send them a 4th or 5th in 2023. Or flip it and offer them a 4th this year and a 3rd next year.
Posts: 92,316

04-26-2022, 10:00 PM	#8
Nightfyre MVP Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Helena, MT Casino cash: $1298849	No one is paying chart value to move up this year, least of all to a desperate Carolina FO
Posts: 18,647

04-26-2022, 10:33 PM	#10
BossChief SuperBowl or bust Join Date: Dec 2008 Location: BF Iowa Casino cash: $-1705912	If you believe Thibs and Jameson are going to be great players in our system. Not just good, but GREAT… We trade up for Thibs and don’t use pick 30, but instead use a first and comp third next year along with 29 and 103 this year to move up. Schefter said that teams looking to move up can likely do so at a discount this year, so I honestly don’t think that’s a bad trade off with that considered. That’s 41 points this year and at face value next year close to another 40 points, if you give face value for the last pick in the first (32.07) and last pick in the third (6.87) Pick 6 is worth 77.84. All the picks offered have a face value of close to 80. That leaves us with the following picks AND Kayvon Thibodeaux 30 50 62 94 121 135 233 243 251 259 Veach isn’t done yet Take 30 - 34.17 pts and 62 - 14.62 pts And 94 - 7.17 pts 55.98 points gets us up to pick 14 by the chart, but a discount is being talked about so those picks may get us to 12 or 13 if Jameson makes it that far. That leaves us with Kayvon Thibodeaux AND Jameson Williams and the following picks 50 121 135 233 243 251 259 Veach can probably get 2-3 more starters out of those scraps. Time to rock this ****ing league. All original picks next year except our first. Does that get us a better outcome than sitting and making our picks from their original slots? I think Jameson and Mahomes could be equally as good a pairing as Tyreek and Mahomes. I’m not sure who I’d compare Thibs style to…but if motivated and playing next to Chris Jones, he could be devastating off the edge. That element in a defense raises the level of everyone else. No time to run wasp. __________________ Dreams do come true... http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showp...postcount=1407
Posts: 47,901

04-26-2022, 10:51 PM	#11
Dante84 Tossed Salad & Scrambled Eggs Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: ATX & OPKS Casino cash: $-2008004 VARSITY	Isn’t the hypothetical move to 6 predicated on the idea that Carolina is trying to accrue more picks for this year? I love the above outcome but I don’t buy them taking that deal. __________________ ..
Posts: 20,454