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Old 07-28-2022, 11:15 AM  
Hog's Gone Fishin Hog's Gone Fishin is offline
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Old 07-29-2022, 08:16 PM   #136
dlphg9 dlphg9 is offline
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Originally Posted by El Lobo Gordo View Post
Only if there is no tie. If there are 700 winners they each get a million. You should actually pick a series of sequential numbers that other people are unlikely to pick.

22 23 24 25 26 and mega ball 21

That has just as much chance as winning as any other combination but it is unlikely someone else is going to purposely pick it. The best strategy is to try to minimize the chance of ties.
When has there ever been 700 winners in a mega millions?

The odds of you having to share with another person that also picked the same numbers is really low. Mega Millions started in 2002. In 20 years of Mega Millions existence there has been 202 jackpots won and 227 winning tickets. Only 20 shared jackpots in 20 years.
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Old 07-29-2022, 09:10 PM   #137
TLO TLO is offline
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Old 07-29-2022, 09:17 PM   #138
El Lobo Gordo El Lobo Gordo is offline
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Originally Posted by dlphg9 View Post
When has there ever been 700 winners in a mega millions?

The odds of you having to share with another person that also picked the same numbers is really low. Mega Millions started in 2002. In 20 years of Mega Millions existence there has been 202 jackpots won and 227 winning tickets. Only 20 shared jackpots in 20 years.
Ticket sales grow super linearly with the size of the jackpots. The more tickets sold the more likely a tie. What is average size of the jackpot that is shared? I bet it is considerably more than the average jackpot.
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Old 07-29-2022, 09:18 PM   #139
El Lobo Gordo El Lobo Gordo is offline
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Originally Posted by dlphg9 View Post
When has there ever been 700 winners in a mega millions?

The odds of you having to share with another person that also picked the same numbers is really low. Mega Millions started in 2002. In 20 years of Mega Millions existence there has been 202 jackpots won and 227 winning tickets. Only 20 shared jackpots in 20 years.
Ticket sales grow super linearly with the size of the jackpots. The more tickets sold the more likely a tie. What is average size of the jackpot that is shared? I bet it is considerably more than the average jackpot won.
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El Lobo Gordo Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.El Lobo Gordo Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.El Lobo Gordo Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.El Lobo Gordo Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.El Lobo Gordo Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.El Lobo Gordo Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.El Lobo Gordo Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.El Lobo Gordo Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.El Lobo Gordo Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.El Lobo Gordo Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.El Lobo Gordo Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.
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Old 07-29-2022, 09:20 PM   #140
Hog's Gone Fishin Hog's Gone Fishin is offline
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Old 07-29-2022, 09:29 PM   #141
backinblack backinblack is offline
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holy shit I won
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Old 07-29-2022, 09:38 PM   #142
scho63 scho63 is offline
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Old 07-29-2022, 09:50 PM   #143
TripleThreat TripleThreat is offline
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Does anyone else ever think wow if only I could know these numbers 3 hours ago I’d be a billionaire. Time is just such a funny thing
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Old 07-29-2022, 09:51 PM   #144
TripleThreat TripleThreat is offline
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Does anyone else ever think wow if only I could know these numbers 3 hours ago I’d be a billionaire. Time is just such a funny thing
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Old 07-30-2022, 06:32 AM   #145
Bwana Bwana is offline
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One winner in Illinois.

Hopeful Frazod won it. I can see it now, the first two things on his list, a shit load of new guns and a kevlar fridge.
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Last edited by Bwana; 07-30-2022 at 06:54 AM..
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Old 07-30-2022, 06:56 AM   #146
tyecopeland tyecopeland is offline
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If you won the match 5 (as many did last night), are you more excited about winning a million dollars or more pissed at missing the Mega ball and missing out on a billion?
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Old 07-30-2022, 06:57 AM   #147
stevieray stevieray is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bwana View Post
One winner in Illinois.
:
Prolly blow through it in seven years, according to past lottery winners.
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Old 07-30-2022, 07:08 AM   #148
Hog's Gone Fishin Hog's Gone Fishin is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bwana View Post
One winner in Illinois.

Hopeful Frazod won it. I can see it now, the first two things on his list, a shit load of new guns and a kevlar fridge.
Can you find the guys phone number so we can call him and offer congratulations
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Hog's Gone Fishin is obviously part of the inner Circle.Hog's Gone Fishin is obviously part of the inner Circle.Hog's Gone Fishin is obviously part of the inner Circle.Hog's Gone Fishin is obviously part of the inner Circle.Hog's Gone Fishin is obviously part of the inner Circle.Hog's Gone Fishin is obviously part of the inner Circle.Hog's Gone Fishin is obviously part of the inner Circle.Hog's Gone Fishin is obviously part of the inner Circle.Hog's Gone Fishin is obviously part of the inner Circle.Hog's Gone Fishin is obviously part of the inner Circle.Hog's Gone Fishin is obviously part of the inner Circle.
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Old 07-30-2022, 07:10 AM   #149
Bwana Bwana is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin View Post
Can you find the guys phone number so we can call him and offer congratulations

I'm sure we would have to get in the back of the line, behind all the long lost relatives, that are now coming out of the woodwork.
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Bwana is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bwana is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bwana is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bwana is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bwana is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bwana is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bwana is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bwana is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bwana is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bwana is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bwana is obviously part of the inner Circle.
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Old 07-30-2022, 07:30 AM   #150
DaFace DaFace is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by El Lobo Gordo View Post
You could argue that the larger the jackpot the less of a bad bet it becomes. I'm not sure this is the case though. Even at 1.2 billion I doubt it is a bet that is one with a positive expected value for the player. Ticket sales go up super linearly with the jackpot size. While an increase in the size of the jackpot adds to a players expected value the more likelihood of ties occurring subtract from it. Lotteries like this are not easy solved gambling problems.



I bought some tickets today. I am almost certain it is still a bad bet.
Expected value calculations lose their meaning when you're talking about a 1 in 300 million chance.
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