Let's talk about the Rams

[Hammock Parties]

Alternate Total: Rams-Chiefs Over 40.5 Points (-142)

The game with the largest spread this week is the Rams as a 15.5-point underdog in Kansas City. Let’s just say Bryce Perkins vs. Patrick Mahomes won’t produce a 54-51 score like the last game between these teams did in 2018’s instant classic. Those were much fonder days for the Rams, who are without Matthew Stafford (concussion) and Cooper Kupp (ankle) possibly for the rest of the season.

But Sean McVay is supposed to be an offensive genius, right? He has to figure something out here with Perkins’ mobility, something he’s never had at the position before with five seasons split between Jared Goff and Stafford.

The Rams have just played in games with 44 and 47 points the last two weeks despite their struggles on offense and Stafford leaving last week’s game. Then there is the fact that you have Mahomes and Andy Reid cooking up things at home after another big win over the Chargers. The Chiefs are always a threat to drop 30 or 40 points.

But with a total of 42 points, this is the lowest total in any Mahomes start in the NFL. The previous low was a 43-point total in 2019 against the Broncos, which ended up being a 23-3 win by the Chiefs.

But the 2019 defense was much better for the Chiefs, who have allowed at least 17 points in 15 straight games, including one home game to the Titans led by rookie quarterback Malik Willis. The Rams do not have Derrick Henry, but they have the ability to score 13-to-17 points in this one to go along with the usual 27-plus from Mahomes and the Chiefs.

Let’s tease the total down to 40.5 and take the over.

Feels like a 31-10 game