The race for the #1 seed in the AFC

[BossChief]

With Buffalo losing to NY today, if we beat Tennessee tonight we will be tied for 1st place in the AFC but Buffalo owns the head to head tiebreaker.

It’s going to be interesting to see the energy KC comes out with tonight.

[rfaulk34]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

'First place schedule' is just 3 games... and for those 3 teams, it's playing each other and the Titans (minus whichever division they're playing), and the '17th game' against an NFC team (the Bucs for KC).

Sadly, besides the top 3 AFC teams playing each other, there just isn't a great metric (I believe DVOA is the most reliable of those)... most years I'd say playing the bottom ~28 isn't really indicative of anything at all in Jan/Feb. This year it might be the bottom 29 until the NFC teams can prove themselves in the playoffs(SB) against better competition than... well, the NFC.

Doesn't mean there's a huge gap between the Chiefs/Bills/Bengals and everyone else, upsets happen, surprise teams emerge, yadda yadda... but yeah, the Bengals have proven they belong just as much as anyone +/- a game, and the playoff experience from last season is a big deal.

He's right that the Bengals started the year against three backup QBs and Mahomes is the only one on the schedule that would strike fear into the hearts of lesser men. I agree with you about DVOA. The weighted DVOA leans more towards recent games where teams are pretty much who they will be and the Bengals are 4th there.

Throw the Bengals, Chiefs and Bills in bag and whoever you pull out is a legit SB winning contender. 49ers and Eagles are tough but i don't think they're as tough as any of the top 3 in the AFC.

Everyone better keep a close eye on the Chargers. The only question mark with them is playoff performance and we get to see how Herbert does there in just a couple weeks.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by rfaulk34

He's right that the Bengals started the year against three backup QBs

DUDE

The Bengals have played:

Mitch Trubisky
Cooper Rush
Joe Flacco
Teddy Bridgewater
Andy Dalton
Baker Mayfield
Kenny Pickett
Deshaun Watson
Mac Jones

That is a goddamn bunch of garbage QBs. And I gave you credit for JACOBY BRISSETT as a non-garbage QB

Now you get credit for beating Mahomes, but you didn't really stop the Chiefs offense. We averaged 6.5 yards per play and only that fumble prevented a Chiefs win.

So you don't get the respect the Bills and Chiefs have earned to this point.

And that is why you are ranked lower.

[ThyKingdomCome15]

Biggest Monday night game in some time.

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by tredadda

I can see that, but it’s really going to come down to how well the Bills stay together once Allen’s contract really kicks in. Also with the Bengals it will be interesting to see if they can sustain this level of success once Burrow gets paid and they have to make decisions on who to keep and who they let walk. Right now I could see Burrow getting a market setting contract as well as Chase.

Yep, and then Higgins walks, probably Boyd, and in the meantime, they haven't invested enough in their OL. They'd better get that fixed this offseason as Burrow's not as elusive as Mahomes and Allen.

I've been saying-we're a year ahead of the curve cap-wise than The Bills and Bengals, and they haven't gotten a SB win on the rookie QB deal yet. This is their last chance with that built in advantage. Well, last chance for Buffalo. Bengals get one more shot before they have to pay Burrow.

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by rfaulk34

He's right that the Bengals started the year against three backup QBs and Mahomes is the only one on the schedule that would strike fear into the hearts of lesser men. I agree with you about DVOA. The weighted DVOA leans more towards recent games where teams are pretty much who they will be and the Bengals are 4th there.

Throw the Bengals, Chiefs and Bills in bag and whoever you pull out is a legit SB winning contender. 49ers and Eagles are tough but i don't think they're as tough as any of the top 3 in the AFC.

Everyone better keep a close eye on the Chargers. The only question mark with them is playoff performance and we get to see how Herbert does there in just a couple weeks.

Buffalo would match up terribly against San Francisco or Philly.

Of course I would rather not see Buffalo win the AFC.

[BWillie]

I really think we need the #1 seed or we are really going to struggle to make the Super Bowl. If we have to go to Buffalo or Cinci I dont think we win those games more than 3 out of 10. Something is just not right with this team offensively even though their scoring offense leads the league. Perhaps that is the stalling out on 3rd and short or sometimes in the redzone. I think it all comes down to having shitty tackles and no real #1 WR. Having Toney and Hardman healthy may be the key to what we need though.

We simply can't defend the Bills or Cinci. Their receivers are too good. Imagine Mahomes with those receiving corps? We wouldn't lose.

[O.city]

The chiefs have a #1 wr. Number 87 running across the field? Remember that guy?

This whole “gotta have a #1 wr outside” stuff has jumped the shark.

Yeah they don’t have jamar chase outside. Same as they don’t have nick bosa at de

This guys go super early in the draft

[TwistedChief]

Originally Posted by BWillie

I really think we need the #1 seed or we are really going to struggle to make the Super Bowl. If we have to go to Buffalo or Cinci I dont think we win those games more than 3 out of 10. Something is just not right with this team offensively even though their scoring offense leads the league. Perhaps that is the stalling out on 3rd and short or sometimes in the redzone. I think it all comes down to having shitty tackles and no real #1 WR. Having Toney and Hardman healthy may be the key to what we need though.

We simply can't defend the Bills or Cinci. Their receivers are too good. Imagine Mahomes with those receiving corps? We wouldn't lose.

The issue for me is less home versus away and more that as the #2 seed we'd likely have to beat both the Bengals and the Bills to make the SB (and of course another team beforehand). If we're #1, we get to skip a game and then likely only have to face 1 of those 2 in the playoffs.

If you want to put some numbers on it and assume all of these outcomes are independent, if we're the #2 seed, I think we get something like a Miami (75% chance of winning) / Cincy (55% chance of winning) / Buffalo (45% chance of winning) draw. And that's an 18.5% chance of making the SB.

If we get the #1 seed, we get a Jaguars (80% chance of winning) / Buffalo or Cincy (60% chance of winning) draw. And that's a 48% chance of making the SB.

And right now, I think the Monday night game is about a toss-up so we're probably 50/50 between the 2 scenarios which gives us like a 30-35% chance of making the SB under those odds. Much better than I would've expected coming into the season!

(ESPN FPI has us at 40% to make the SB: https://www.espn.com/nfl/fpi/_/view/projections)

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by TwistedChief

The issue for me is less home versus away and more that as the #2 seed we'd likely have to beat both the Bengals and the Bills to make the SB (and of course another team beforehand). If we're #1, we get to skip a game and then likely only have to face 1 of those 2 in the playoffs.

If you want to put some numbers on it and assume all of these outcomes are independent, if we're the #2 seed, I think we get something like a Miami (75% chance of winning) / Cincy (55% chance of winning) / Buffalo (45% chance of winning) draw. And that's an 18.5% chance of making the SB.

If we get the #1 seed, we get a Jaguars (80% chance of winning) / Buffalo or Cincy (60% chance of winning) draw. And that's a 48% chance of making the SB.

And right now, I think the Monday night game is about a toss-up so we're probably 50/50 between the 2 scenarios which gives us like a 30-35% chance of making the SB under those odds. Much better than I would've expected coming into the season!

(ESPN FPI has us at 40% to make the SB: https://www.espn.com/nfl/fpi/_/view/projections)

The bold is the key, IMO.

[tredadda]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

Yep, and then Higgins walks, probably Boyd, and in the meantime, they haven't invested enough in their OL. They'd better get that fixed this offseason as Burrow's not as elusive as Mahomes and Allen.

I've been saying-we're a year ahead of the curve cap-wise than The Bills and Bengals, and they haven't gotten a SB win on the rookie QB deal yet. This is their last chance with that built in advantage. Well, last chance for Buffalo. Bengals get one more shot before they have to pay Burrow.

Yup. Another factor will be how well they draft when not benefiting from Top 10 picks. Buffalo seems to be doing pretty well with it, but I am interested in seeing what Cincy does. Any decent GM can build a solid team when they have high picks over the years. The great GMs are the ones that routinely find talent drafting #20 or later every year while still staying competitive.

[BigRock]

The #1 seed is obviously preferable, but if it came down to it I wouldn't be super bummed about going to Buffalo. The weather isn't going to put us at a disadvantage. The pressure would be entirely on them since it would be the game they're finally supposed to win. And there's nothing more we can do to them except ruin their dreams in their own house.

But mostly, we've never seen Mahomes in a true road playoff game. He's at his petty best when he gets fired up for big road games. Counting to 4 when beating down the Ravens, counting to 10 against the Bears, revenge game against the Bucs after they talked shit that week, etc, all road games where he was lights out.

I'd kinda like to see it.

[ThaVirus]

#1 seed would give us tons of breathing room, for sure.

I would also love to see one of either the Bills or Bengals fall in the Wild Card Round. I think there is a decent possibility there, too, if the Wild Cards end up being the Ravens (with Lamar healthy), Chargers and Dolphins (with Tua healthy).

[ThaVirus]

Originally Posted by BigRock

The #1 seed is obviously preferable, but if it came down to it I wouldn't be super bummed about going to Buffalo. The weather isn't going to put us at a disadvantage. The pressure would be entirely on them since it would be the game they're finally supposed to win. And there's nothing more we can do to them except ruin their dreams in their own house.

But mostly, we've never seen Mahomes in a true road playoff game. He's at his petty best when he gets fired up for big road games. Counting to 4 when beating down the Ravens, counting to 10 against the Bears, revenge game against the Bucs after they talked shit that week, etc, all road games where he was lights out.

I'd kinda like to see it.

Mahomes and the offense generally play better on the road, but the defense plays much better at home.

Plus, hosting another AFC Championship game would be an awesome accomplishment.

[tredadda]

Originally Posted by ThaVirus

#1 seed would give us tons of breathing room, for sure.

I would also love to see one of either the Bills or Bengals fall in the Wild Card Round. I think there is a decent possibility there, too, if the Wild Cards end up being the Ravens (with Lamar healthy), Chargers and Dolphins (with Tua healthy).

I don’t think the Dolphins make it. Not sure they will win anymore this season. Tua is on concussion #3. If they bring him back next week I would be shocked. If they do squeeze in somehow I don’t think they are really much of a threat at least this year. I could see a Lamar led Ravens beating Cincinnati (due to familiarity). Not sure they have the firepower to knock off KC or Buffalo. The wild card is LAC. They are easily capable of knocking off any of the big 3 teams.

[Graystoke]

We've all heard it before, cut the Chargers are getting healthy and I think they could go deep in the playoffs.
Hopefully we nail down the #1 Seed. Makes the Chiefs path much easier.