JuJu to Kansas City

[Dante84]

#ChiefsKingdom Let’s Go!

— JuJu Smith-Schuster (@TeamJuJu) March 18, 2022

JuJu Smith-Schuster is getting a one-year, $10.75M deal with the Chiefs, per source.

— Field Yates (@FieldYates) March 18, 2022

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

1)Green Bay largely drafted like shit, other than a few hits.
2)There isn't really such a thing as a 'value FA WR' anymore.
3)this WR corps wasn't a 'Mahomes will make everybody better' plan. If that was the plan, they'd have kept and elevated Pringle and Drob. This WR corps was a 'let's get some professional receivers with varied skillsets and run the offense' plan.
4) WR is, right now, the most overpaid position on the field. Everyone went nuts last offseason trying to keep up with Mahomes/Hill. It's kind of hilarious that we sent Hill packing and have the #1 offense in football while everyone else spent like a half a billion dollars trying to beat us.

There is no spending out way to a Super Bowl plan to be had anymore. We're paying the Patrick Price. Totally worth it. But it does mean we have to be thrifty in FA, and draft and develop our own talent.

Not arguing any of your points, I get it. Just saying, it's not hard to suddenly find yourself (speaking of Andy/Veach here) in a similar situation to what GB found themselves in, regardless of what was intended to begin with.

And yeah, it is crazy to find ourselves with the no. 1 offense after stripping the WR room and trading Hill.

But after sleeping on it, and remembering something Veach said a couple seasons ago, I'm not as concerned as i was yesterday. He said he was always looking for another weapon for Andy and Pat. And we've seen him make some moves that surprised most of us, so my feeling is that if he can get a DHop or similar player without wrecking the long-term plan for the team, he'll do it. He's not a 'status quo' kind of guy, and I'm good with that.

But for what it's worth, DHop as a Chief would be unstoppable. Just saying.

[DenverChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I said before the season started that I was going to be fascinated by the Dolphins/Raiders/Eagles vs. the Chiefs/Packers/Titans approach.

It's gutted the Titans. Just absolutely killed them. Because they don't have a force multiplier under center and NOTHING to complement their running game.

It goosed the Eagles big time. AJ Brown has had a massive impact on their offense.

But it got the Raiders and Dolphins very little. It didn't hurt the Chiefs one whit and ultimately I think the mistake the Packers made was 1) to not ad ANY reliable veteran depth to replace Adams and 2) To act like Rodgers is still Rodgers.

The early returns say that paying a haul for a WR probably isn't a great idea, especially not if you trade a bucket of picks for the right to do so. If you have a great QB, he can make his WR corps if you have solid representative talent (The Chiefs). But you can't just expect your QB to work with scraps and rookies or you're gonna have a rough go of it for awhile (Packers).

On the flipside, If you have a bad QB, there's not much a great WR can do about it (i.e. The Raiders). So I guess your middle ground is that if you have a solid young QB, especially one on a rookie deal, you can probably benefit from adding a high-end WR to the team because it shouldn't preclude you from surrounding that duo with good complementary talent (Eagles). I mean even the Dophins won 8 straight games that Tua started/finished to begin the season. So they clearly benefited for awhile. I'm honestly not real sure why the wheels flew off in Miami.

JJSS will get a nice contract but it won't be in the Tyreek/Adams area. There is no way the Chiefs are going back to the Robinsons/Pringles of the NFL next year. Watson hasn't been all we thought he would and Skyy is still struggling. MVS has been very pedestrian - although he has had some critical catches late in games, he disappears for most of the game. The only consistent pass catchers we have are JJSS and Kelce and to a lesser extent (when he is on the field) Toney

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by DenverChief

Disagree about letting JJSS walk - Skyy really hasn't shown much to date. Either he is struggling with chemistry with Mahomes or he isn't grasping the offense.

His season stat line is:

297 Snaps 22 Rec on 33 Tgts for 250 yds, 7.6 YPT, 1 Drop and 0 TDs

Justin Watson sees the field more with even more dismal numbers

444 Snaps 14 Rec on 32 Tgts for 248 yds, 7.8 YPT, 5 drops and 2 TDs

MVS - 704 Snaps 39 Rec on 75 Tgts for 660 Yds, 8.8 YPT, 5 drops and 2 TDs

But JJSS isn't worth it. I don't think you realize how important he is to this offense. All he does is catch 1st downs. There is NO WAY Skyy or Watson or MVS could make up his production.

JJSS - 690 snaps 76 Rec on 99 Tgts for 898 Yds, 11.8 YPT, 4 drops 3 TDs

898 yards on 504 routes run -- 1.78 yards per route run.

Moore -- 250 yards on 167 routes run -- 1.5 yards per RR. Now, is JJSS better? Obviously. But would I say there's 'no way' that JJSS can increase his efficiency by .28 yards per rr? Yeah, I think that's pretty doable. For reference, that's roughly 300 yards over his 167 routes this year vs. 250. I see no reason to say that's completely out of reach.

JuJu is about smack in the middle of Darius Slayton and Nico Collins in terms of efficiency this year. He's not out there clipping off 2+ yards per route or anything. He's someone that's found a nice niche but has been a product of the offense more than he's truly been special.

Would Moore be a 1 for 1 replacement next year? No, i don't think so. You'd be looking at changing up the offense again a bit in all probability. Toney would have more downfield responsibility and a more varied route tree than Hardman has to absorb some of that loss while Moore would take those underneath routes that JJSS is presently running. MVS would return with a similar role, IMO. And ideally another season with PM would yield greater chemistry (as MVS has been missed a LOT this year).

I'm not saying it's an ideal scenario, but I prefer it to spending $18-$20 million/yr on a guy who was struggling to get multi-year offers the last couple of seasons. In an environment where teams were showering guys like Christian Kirk with long-term guaranteed dollars.

[DenverChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

898 yards on 504 routes run -- 1.78 yards per route run.

Moore -- 250 yards on 167 routes run -- 1.5 yards per RR. Now, is JJSS better? Obviously. But would I say there's 'no way' that JJSS can increase his efficiency by .28 yards per rr? Yeah, I think that's pretty doable. For reference, that's roughly 300 yards over his 167 routes this year vs. 250. I see no reason to say that's completely out of reach.

JuJu is about smack in the middle of Darius Slayton and Nico Collins in terms of efficiency this year. He's not out there clipping off 2+ yards per route or anything. He's someone that's found a nice niche but has been a product of the offense more than he's truly been special.

Would Moore be a 1 for 1 replacement next year? No, i don't think so. You'd be looking at changing up the offense again a bit in all probability. Toney would have more downfield responsibility and a more varied route tree than Hardman has to absorb some of that loss while Moore would take those underneath routes that JJSS is presently running. MVS would return with a similar role, IMO. And ideally another season with PM would yield greater chemistry (as MVS has been missed a LOT this year).

I'm not saying it's an ideal scenario, but I prefer it to spending $18-$20 million/yr on a guy who was struggling to get multi-year offers the last couple of seasons. In an environment where teams were showering guys like Christian Kirk with long-term guaranteed dollars.

You are assuming routes run means it's a passing play or supposed to get the ball. Thats why Receptions/Targets makes more sense. But you know that, you are just being argumentative (Damn Lawyers) . I would prefer JJSS back on a MVS style contract - which I think is all he is going to get. If he wants something in the Hill/Adams stratosphere then yeah let him walk but I don't think that is the case.

[DenverChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

898 yards on 504 routes run -- 1.78 yards per route run.

Moore -- 250 yards on 167 routes run -- 1.5 yards per RR. Now, is JJSS better? Obviously. But would I say there's 'no way' that JJSS can increase his efficiency by .28 yards per rr? Yeah, I think that's pretty doable. For reference, that's roughly 300 yards over his 167 routes this year vs. 250. I see no reason to say that's completely out of reach.

JuJu is about smack in the middle of Darius Slayton and Nico Collins in terms of efficiency this year. He's not out there clipping off 2+ yards per route or anything. He's someone that's found a nice niche but has been a product of the offense more than he's truly been special.

Would Moore be a 1 for 1 replacement next year? No, i don't think so. You'd be looking at changing up the offense again a bit in all probability. Toney would have more downfield responsibility and a more varied route tree than Hardman has to absorb some of that loss while Moore would take those underneath routes that JJSS is presently running. MVS would return with a similar role, IMO. And ideally another season with PM would yield greater chemistry (as MVS has been missed a LOT this year).

I'm not saying it's an ideal scenario, but I prefer it to spending $18-$20 million/yr on a guy who was struggling to get multi-year offers the last couple of seasons. In an environment where teams were showering guys like Christian Kirk with long-term guaranteed dollars.

FWIW MVS would only be $2M in dead cap this year and next as a post June 1st cut

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by DenverChief

FWIW MVS would only be $2M in dead cap this year and next as a post June 1st cut

So $4 million in dead money over the next 2 years or you keep him at a base salary of $8.5 million?

I think I just keep him. Probably cut him after next season and end up absorbing that $2 million in dead money THEN rather than pay him $12 million in 2024, but for 2023, I think I'd bring him back.

I mean we're 2 or 3 missed connections from the guy having 800+ yards and 5 scores. And Mahomes has acknowledged those misses were on him. MVS has been what we could've hoped from him, IMO. And he's provided some nice physical blocking to boot.

I don't think you find a better veteran than him for $9 million next off-season. At least not one that fits his role in the offense as well.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by DenverChief

You are assuming routes run means it's a passing play or supposed to get the ball. Thats why Receptions/Targets makes more sense. But you know that, you are just being argumentative (Damn Lawyers) . I would prefer JJSS back on a MVS style contract - which I think is all he is going to get. If he wants something in the Hill/Adams stratosphere then yeah let him walk but I don't think that is the case.

Routes Run represents a proxy (and when used across players, a fair representation for both guys as either JJSS or Player B are likely to see a roughly similar ratio in that regard).

If anything, it would oversample JJSS who's routinely higher on the progression list than someone like Moore. If Moore is a 4th option and only generating 1/3 of a yard less per route than JJSS as the 2nd option, that's a bit of an indictment on JuJu.

Ultimately the routes run stat works because it provides a really large N. Whereas targets don't. Moreover, targets also don't adjust for the fact that some guys just don't get much separation when they run a route and thus get fewer targets directly as a result of their shortcomings.

Using yards/route run is actually a pretty good indicator of overall efficiency for a WR. And the top 25 being populated by dudes you tend to think of as damn good WRs would support that.

[philfree]

Originally Posted by NJChiefsFan

Why are we going all in on a small gap when we have chances to win sbs for the next decade plus?

I'd start with the OTs and DEs before I'd blow a wad on a WR but I'd go in now to build a team that has a 5 year window that doesn't just count on Mahomes Magic.

[QUOTEWe won a SB 3 years ago.

We don't need to win shit now.][/QUOTE]

Get out of here with that noise. Players are all just one hit away and that includes Mahomes. We need to win all we can as soon as we can. Do you think Mahomes is okay with "we won one three years ago?" Do you think Brady was ever okay with that?

Fix the protection, fix the pass rush and if possible, improve the weapons. All this we can't is crap. Don't tell me how we can't tell me how we can! That's Veache's job.

[DenverChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

So $4 million in dead money over the next 2 years or you keep him at a base salary of $8.5 million?

I think I just keep him. Probably cut him after next season and end up absorbing that $2 million in dead money THEN rather than pay him $12 million in 2024, but for 2023, I think I'd bring him back.

I mean we're 2 or 3 missed connections from the guy having 800+ yards and 5 scores. And Mahomes has acknowledged those misses were on him. MVS has been what we could've hoped from him, IMO. And he's provided some nice physical blocking to boot.

I don't think you find a better veteran than him for $9 million next off-season. At least not one that fits his role in the offense as well.

I don't disagree - I think he is on the cusp of being a vertical threat if he and Mahomes can get their timing down. I just don't believe Skyy is up to the challenge to replace JJSS and Watson needs to go. There has to be a better #4 receiver on the roster Bryan Edwards/Smith-Marsette/Ealy/Ross?

[DenverChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Routes Run represents a proxy (and when used across players, a fair representation for both guys as either JJSS or Player B are likely to see a roughly similar ratio in that regard).

If anything, it would oversample JJSS who's routinely higher on the progression list than someone like Moore. If Moore is a 4th option and only generating 1/3 of a yard less per route than JJSS as the 2nd option, that's a bit of an indictment on JuJu.

Ultimately the routes run stat works because it provides a really large N. Whereas targets don't. Moreover, targets also don't adjust for the fact that some guys just don't get much separation when they run a route and thus get fewer targets directly as a result of their shortcomings.

Using yards/route run is actually a pretty good indicator of overall efficiency for a WR. And the top 25 being populated by dudes you tend to think of as damn good WRs would support that.

So your saying Skyy/Watson can't get separation and JJSS can which is why the disparity in targets - I think you just made my point sir.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by DenverChief

I don't disagree - I think he is on the cusp of being a vertical threat if he and Mahomes can get their timing down. I just don't believe Skyy is up to the challenge to replace JJSS and Watson needs to go. There has to be a better #4 receiver on the roster Bryan Edwards/Smith-Marsette/Ealy/Ross?

Absolutely.

Where the loss of JJSS and Hardman would hurt the most isn't even at the #1 and #3 WR slots, IMO. It's at 4, 5 and 6.

The depth would just be staggeringly awful once you have to move guys like Toney and MVS up into higher leverage roles.

That would be where my greatest concerns would come. But those are also areas where you can try to find some of those higher risk/reward plays. You can look for those 'make good' plays or value plays on WRs you think are due to break out.

You don't target guys like that to be your 1st or 2nd option. Nor do you bring them in when you're stacked tight at 1-4 because you can't give them the rope they need to truly bust out.

But man, if you could bring a guy like that in as a possible #4 who turns himself into your #2 for a pittance, that's found money. That's the way dominant teams happen.

You pay retail for everything and the realities of a cap league are that you're just robbing Peter to pay Paul. Your ceiling is limited. You've gotta find surplus value and WR is a place we can do it, IMO.

[DenverChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Absolutely.

Where the loss of JJSS and Hardman would hurt the most isn't even at the #1 and #3 WR slots, IMO. It's at 4, 5 and 6.

The depth would just be staggeringly awful once you have to move guys like Toney and MVS up into higher leverage roles.

That would be where my greatest concerns would come. But those are also areas where you can try to find some of those higher risk/reward plays. You can look for those 'make good' plays or value plays on WRs you think are due to break out.

You don't target guys like that to be your 1st or 2nd option. Nor do you bring them in when you're stacked tight at 1-4 because you can't give them the rope they need to truly bust out.

But man, if you could bring a guy like that in as a possible #4 who turns himself into your #2 for a pittance, that's found money. That's the way dominant teams happen.

You pay retail for everything and the realities of a cap league are that you're just robbing Peter to pay Paul. Your ceiling is limited. You've gotta find surplus value and WR is a place we can do it, IMO.

I totally get where you are going with the salary cap and I don't necessarily disagree. But we have a lot of wasted cap space in Frank Clark and he isn't coming back cutting him leaves 9M in dead cap but saves 20M. Thats some $$ you can spread around to a WR.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by DenverChief

So your saying Skyy/Watson can't get separation and JJSS can which is why the disparity in targets - I think you just made my point sir.

The exact opposite, my friend.

The gap between their respective yards per route run and their yards per target is greater precisely BECAUSE JuJu struggles to get separation. JJSS is much higher in the progression than Moore yet he gets .189 targets per route than Moore. Meanwhile Moore gets .192 targets per route despite being further down the progression due to his relative inexperience. Why should a 4th option be getting more targets per route run than the 2nd?

My point is that JJSS scores relatively 'higher' in yards per target than he does in yards per route run because his routes don't yield targets as often as they should for the top WR on a team. And it's because JJSS simply doesn't get much separation.

The top WR for the top scoring offense in football, a team with a 5,000 yard passer, has 95 targets on the season. And less than 900 yards receiving. That's just not a terribly efficient player and not someone that any team 'can't afford to lose'.

That's pretty damn fungible.

[crispystl]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

I have a hard time seeing it at this point.

Smith-Schuster has been good for KC this year, but I don't think he has done anything that is irreplaceable (I sound like DJ now, don't I?).

What Skyy Moore has flashed when Smith-Schuster was unavailable makes me think that's probably the guy that fills Juju's role when he departs.

Hope he gets a huge deal, though. He will deserve it after helping KC win the Super Bowl.

This.
I'm out on giving JJS big money.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by DenverChief

I totally get where you are going with the salary cap and I don't necessarily disagree. But we have a lot of wasted cap space in Frank Clark and he isn't coming back cutting him leaves 9M in dead cap but saves 20M. Thats some $$ you can spread around to a WR.

We've gotta add 20 new faces to this roster BEFORE you cut Frank Clark.

Brotha, that cap space is gonna disappear much faster than you realize. That 33 guys we have signed doesn't include a LT or a RT. It doesn't include DT2 or DT3. Or DE2.

We're gonna have to spread a lot around and it's gonna get thin. That's why it's really important to make sure it's allocated wisely. I don't think paying JJSS like a #1 WR does that.