Let's talk about the Jaguars (AFC Divisional Round)

[Bearcat]

Discuss.

[TEX]

Originally Posted by Cdnjagfan14

oh i know the refs screwed you over on that Roughing the passer vs the colts, he sacked, and came down with the ball while rolling to his side and still flagged. terrible call.

dropped passes are part of the game, reason we lost alot early in the season we lead the league in dropped passes which i think is alot more then they show on the sites.

mahomes is probably the most reliable QB i have watched in the last 20 years. he rarely has a bad game and when he does never has back to back ones.

No. That was the Raiders game.... Against the Colts, Chris Jones said mean words to Matt Ryan, and was given an unsportsman like conduct penalty that extended a drive, after the Chiefs had stopped them on 4th down, with the lead, very late in the game in Colts territory. It was literally game over had that BS call not occured.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by MahomesIsTheMVP

Chiefs don’t turn the ball over they are unbeatable.

They make it darn tough.

You can try to play the game of limiting drives, but that requires you to be more efficient offensively than the Chiefs, and they have consistently been much more consistent than any other offense in football. With the full playbook open for the playoffs and Mahomes willing to use his legs even more and the Chiefs deep and varied group of weapons in 2022, this is perhaps harder than it's been sans 2018 with a healthy Sammy Watkins and Kareem Hunt still on the team.

You can try to drop a lot of guys in coverage, but that requires your front to win without help.

Really, it comes down to hoping you can win the turnover margin (and likely needing to win it by +2 or better) and have some unusual things happen.

Mahomes has played 3-4 bad quarters of playoff football out of 44. Hoping you get a random bad quarter is probably part of the equation, too.

Both AFC championship game losses featured some rough quarters.

Of course, all of this goes out the window if your QB is also a mutant elite-elite guy. Lawrence isn't that, yet.

[Cdnjagfan14]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

They make it darn tough.

You can try to play the game of limiting drives, but that requires you to be more efficient offensively than the Chiefs, and they have consistently been much more consistent than any other offense in football. With the full playbook open for the playoffs and Mahomes willing to use his legs even more and the Chiefs deep and varied group of weapons in 2022, this is perhaps harder than it's been sans 2018 with a healthy Sammy Watkins and Kareem Hunt still on the team.

You can try to drop a lot of guys in coverage, but that requires your front to win without help.

Really, it comes down to hoping you can win the turnover margin (and likely needing to win it by +2 or better) and have some unusual things happen.

Mahomes has played 3-4 bad quarters of playoff football out of 44. Hoping you get a random bad quarter is probably part of the equation, too.

Both AFC championship game losses featured some rough quarters.

Of course, all of this goes out the window if your QB is also a mutant elite-elite guy. Lawrence isn't that, yet.

are you sure Lawrence isn't there? he is not afraid. he threw 4 picks and just went back out and unafraid and slung it around the yard for 4 TDs.

also back in Dallas he thru it around the yard made elite throws into windows only a handful of qbs can make.

his only problem is starting fast he's still learning as Urban didn't teach him anything last year. but he can throw the ball as well as any of the final 4 in the AFC.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Cdnjagfan14

are you sure Lawrence isn't there? he is not afraid. he threw 4 picks and just went back out and unafraid and slung it around the yard for 4 TDs.

also back in Dallas he thru it around the yard made elite throws into windows only a handful of qbs can make.

his only problem is starting fast he's still learning as Urban didn't teach him anything last year. but he can throw the ball as well as any of the final 4 in the AFC.

I haven't seen it yet. And yes, I did watch that game.

Lawrence is incredibly physically gifted. But he is not - yet - a guy who does superhuman stuff off schedule. And he doesn't quite have the level of weapons to elevate him, either.

I think he can take that leap next year.

[JagsFan]

Originally Posted by Cdnjagfan14

are you sure Lawrence isn't there? he is not afraid. he threw 4 picks and just went back out and unafraid and slung it around the yard for 4 TDs.

also back in Dallas he thru it around the yard made elite throws into windows only a handful of qbs can make.

his only problem is starting fast he's still learning as Urban didn't teach him anything last year. but he can throw the ball as well as any of the final 4 in the AFC.

Trevor makes a lot of sick throws, for sure, but he also misses too many. It might not seem like he misses many, because he's throwing a lot of quicker, shorter passes.

But the thing is: he's #24 in deep ball accuracy rating; Burrow is #2; Allen is #8.

Trevor needs to grow in his vertical downfield game and, maybe to the same extent, he needs weapons who can help him in this respect.

Trevor has put up great passing stats against low-ranking pass defenses -- although pressure can still bother him as it did against the Titans. Need to see him thrive against better defenses, too.

Just from eye test, putting him on a level with Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, is insane. I love Trevor, too, man, but that's insane. Off the top of my head, I'd put him around Dak Prescott-level (maybe I have a better impression of Dak than you do or maybe I'm thinking of the better Dak that we saw last night).

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by Molitoth

Really? I've been begging him to run the ball on 1st down this season when our RB's are getting 4-7 ypc.

We avg 8.1 yards per throw at a greater than 67% comp rate. We avg 4.7 yards per carry. We are the best team on 3rd and long by a mile so even when teams KNOW we are throwing it they still cant stop us. Why we ever run the ball on 1st down is beyond me.

[Cdnjagfan14]

Originally Posted by JagsFan

Trevor makes a lot of sick throws, for sure, but he also misses too many. It might not seem like he misses many, because he's throwing a lot of quicker, shorter passes.

But the thing is: he's #24 in deep ball accuracy rating; Burrow is #2; Allen is #8.

Trevor needs to grow in his vertical downfield game and, maybe to the same extent, he needs weapons who can help him in this respect.

Trevor has put up great passing stats against low-ranking pass defenses -- although pressure can still bother him as it did against the Titans. Need to see him thrive against better defenses, too.

Just from eye test, putting him on a level with Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, is insane. I love Trevor, too, man, but that's insane. Off the top of my head, I'd put him around Dak Prescott-level (maybe I have a better impression of Dak than you do or maybe I'm thinking of the better Dak that we saw last night).

trevor has also had alot of dropped passes and some of those were 30+ one being a beautiful 59 yard strike in the endzone dropped by zay jones. early in the year we had a tonne of dropped passes, that number as decreased since we started our last 10 game stretch. which we are 8-2 over the last 10. all us jag fans wish he would use his legs more as he is very athletic. no way he should not be able to pick up 30-50 yards a game off schedule.

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by Cdnjagfan14

trevor has also had alot of dropped passes and some of those were 30+ one being a beautiful 59 yard strike in the endzone dropped by zay jones. early in the year we had a tonne of dropped passes, that number as decreased since we started our last 10 game stretch. which we are 8-2 over the last 10. all us jag fans wish he would use his legs more as he is very athletic. no way he should not be able to pick up 30-50 yards a game off schedule.

Thing is, it's not really about dropped passes. That happens to every team and QB. The thing is, it's really his decision-making.

Take the LAC game for example. at least two, if not three of those INTs were the result of poor decisions on Trevor's part. Without going into details, he tried to fit balls into places they just were never going to be completed. He basically was begging to be intercepted.

Now we could debate the whys and the wherefores of how those decisions were made, but that's kind of irrelevant here. The point is that Trevor repeatedly made bad decisions about where to go with the football.

Those are processing and decision-making problems, not a receiver or an arm talent problem.

Now maybe next year or whenever, he grows to the point where he stops making those kinds of decisions. But right now, based on this season, he's susceptible to making those kinds of decisions. Which eliminates Trevor from the 'elite' category in 2022.

Personally, I'm hoping he continues to grow as a QB. Overall, I like his game.

[DJ's left nut]

Oh good - we're talking about dropped passes.

I remember those days of rationalizing the statistics of our limited QBs...

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Cdnjagfan14

are you sure Lawrence isn't there? he is not afraid. he threw 4 picks and just went back out and unafraid and slung it around the yard for 4 TDs.

also back in Dallas he thru it around the yard made elite throws into windows only a handful of qbs can make.

his only problem is starting fast he's still learning as Urban didn't teach him anything last year. but he can throw the ball as well as any of the final 4 in the AFC.

Yes.

BECAUSE he threw 4 picks.

Elite passers don't throw 4 picks at home in the playoffs. Favre threw 6 in a game once, but 3 of those came in the 4th quarter when he was just slinging it to try to come back and that was on the road.

Roethlisberger threw 3 in a half at home once but it was in 2021 when that dude was as washed as washed gets.

Rich Gannon once threw 5 in the Super Bowl but 2 were during garbage time and, oh, the other team KNEW THEIR PLAYBOOK.

Elite players don't throw four picks in the first half of a home playoff game. It flat-ass doesn't happen.

[Bearcat]

You'll know your quarterback has officially made the big time when you're no longer rationalizing dropped passes to make him look better, but fielding questions about dropped interceptions as people are trying to tear him down.

[Gary Cooper]

Is Jacksonville the only AFC opponent the Chiefs never faced in the playoffs?

[JagsFan]

Originally Posted by Megatron96

Thing is, it's not really about dropped passes. That happens to every team and QB. The thing is, it's really his decision-making.

Take the LAC game for example. at least two, if not three of those INTs were the result of poor decisions on Trevor's part. Without going into details, he tried to fit balls into places they just were never going to be completed. He basically was begging to be intercepted.

Now we could debate the whys and the wherefores of how those decisions were made, but that's kind of irrelevant here. The point is that Trevor repeatedly made bad decisions about where to go with the football.

Those are processing and decision-making problems, not a receiver or an arm talent problem.

Now maybe next year or whenever, he grows to the point where he stops making those kinds of decisions. But right now, based on this season, he's susceptible to making those kinds of decisions. Which eliminates Trevor from the 'elite' category in 2022.

Personally, I'm hoping he continues to grow as a QB. Overall, I like his game.

I think my Jags buddy has a point. Lack of deep threat at wide receiver and too many drops. I mean the Lions game would be a great example.

NFL Passes Dropped
Rank Team Passes Dropped
1 Green Bay Packers 30
2 Buffalo Bills 29
3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29
4 Jacksonville Jaguars 29
5 Miami Dolphins 27
6 New York Giants 27
7 Kansas City Chiefs 26
8 Los Angeles Chargers 25
9 Cincinnati Bengals 24
10 Cleveland Browns 24
11 Dallas Cowboys 23
12 Denver Broncos 23
13 Detroit Lions 23
14 Indianapolis Colts 23
15 Tennessee Titans 22
16 San Francisco 49ers 22
17 Minnesota Vikings 20
18 Pittsburgh Steelers 20
19 Washington Commanders 20
20 Baltimore Ravens 20
21 New England Patriots 19
22 New Orleans Saints 19
23 Arizona Cardinals 19
24 New York Jets 18
25 Houston Texans 16
26 Las Vegas Raiders 16
27 Los Angeles Rams 15
28 Philadelphia Eagles 14
29 Carolina Panthers 14
30 Seattle Seahawks 13
31 Chicago Bears 12
32 Atlanta Falcons 9

[JagsFan]

Yeah I agree that Trevor isn't elite. Mahomes and Burrow are elite for sure. After that I guess Allen might be elite, then, ranking the non-elite, Herbert maybe a few guys then Trevor.

But using his first every playoff half to downplay Trevor's quality is pretty unfair. Can he not be forgiven for having playoff jitters?

[PattyFlakes]

Originally Posted by JagsFan

Yeah I agree that Trevor isn't elite. Mahomes and Burrow are elite for sure. After that I guess Allen might be elite, then, ranking the non-elite, Herbert maybe a few guys then Trevor.

But using his first every playoff half to downplay Trevor's quality is pretty unfair. Can he not be forgiven for having playoff jitters?

I actually think Trevor has the potential to be elite, he’s got all of the tools and doesn’t seem to crumble in big moments like Allen or Herbert. He’s got some stuff in his game he needs to clean up for sure, but I’m rooting for the kid, unless he’s playing the Chiefs.