Let’s talk about the Bengals (AFC Championship Rd)

[RunKC]

Welp this game has been on everyone’s minds since the start of the season.

Let’s get some revenge goddamnit!

[Megatron96]

This is just my gut feeling more than anything, and things could change a lot depending on Mahomes' ankle and whether Hardman can go by gameday, but imo, this is basically how the two teams stack up. Now, this is just a broad cut; there's no nuance here, just which unit is better than the other, imho. In some cases I think the difference is very slight, others it's more significant, but this side-by-side comparo doesn't take that into account.



Damn, couldn't get the chart to work right.

Okay, so KC has the advantage, however slight or great in these areas:

Coaching staff Andy.

RB KC has the faster and more athletic RBs, pls they're better receivers

TE Kelce. 'nuff said

OL KC OL is healthy, theirs is not

DL Their OL isn't healthy, our DL is healthy and they've been more efficient and effective in recent weeks than they were in week 13



CIN has the advantage in these areas;

QB (Mahomes won't be able to use his greatest superhero ability, extending plays with his legs)

WR 1/2, maybe even WR3

LB might be a wash; in the first meeting this season CIN had the advantage

Secondary goes to CIN due to the fact that theirs has been together longer and more experienced, KC is starting three rooks, and CIN has the better safety duo until further notice.

Some follow up thoughts:

I gave the nod to Burrow because of Mahomes' ankle. This may or may not move back to KC depending on how bad the sprain was and how quickly Pat heals. But a 100% healthy Burrow is probably better than a hobbled Mahomes.

RB could be a wash depending on the weather, And obviously CIN would get the nod if it's just sloppy field conditions, which favors big backs and can give more margin for error to backup OLs when they have to run-block. If Mahomes were healthy I might give it to CIN simply because Andy rarely leans on the running game, and CIN uses their run game much more in certain situations, like in the RZ, where they are pretty effective. But as Pat is not going to be as effective scrambling, I think Andy is going to lean into the run game a little more than normal, and our RBs are faster and more effective in the passing game.

Their OL is starting two or three backups, 'Nuff said.

Kelce

CIN simply has the better WR1/2, maybe 3

I gave our DL the nod because CIN is starting backups on their OL, and our DL has been playing better in recent weeks

I'm not that familiar with CIN LBs, but I like how ours are playing overall, in spite of their issues in coverage, so it's a wash, at this point until someone argues (rationally) otherwise.

Our secondary is starting 3 rooks, theirs has not, they have better safeties, and they've been playing together longer, so despite the fact that I think our secondary has improved since the last time we played CIN, I can't say our secondary is playing at a higher level than theirs right now, so based on how things looked CIN vs. BUF, I have to give CIN the nod.

My early thought is that Andy is going to have to come up with the gameplan of his career for this one if Mahomes is hobbled and can't extend plays, because that's his superhero ability more than anything else, and Spags is going to have to also come up with the best gameplan he's come up with since being hired as the Chiefs DC. On a sidenote, Cullen needs to show off just how good he is at his job in this one.

[cmh6476]

Mixon > Pacheco

and Tyler Boyd >>> MVS or Hardman

[KCUnited]

Daily reminder that Cincy had to get double penetrated with a horseshoe to get through a Tyler Huntley led Ravens team in the WC round.

Lets not crown they ass just yet.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by Megatron96

This is just my gut feeling more than anything, and things could change a lot depending on Mahomes' ankle and whether Hardman can go by gameday, but imo, this is basically how the two teams stack up. Now, this is just a broad cut; there's no nuance here, just which unit is better than the other, imho. In some cases I think the difference is very slight, others it's more significant, but this side-by-side comparo doesn't take that into account.



Damn, couldn't get the chart to work right.

Okay, so KC has the advantage, however slight or great in these areas:

Coaching staff Andy.

RB KC has the faster and more athletic RBs, pls they're better receivers

TE Kelce. 'nuff said

OL KC OL is healthy, theirs is not

DL Their OL isn't healthy, our DL is healthy and they've been more efficient and effective in recent weeks than they were in week 13



CIN has the advantage in these areas;

QB (Mahomes won't be able to use his greatest superhero ability, extending plays with his legs)

WR 1/2, maybe even WR3

LB might be a wash; in the first meeting this season CIN had the advantage

Secondary goes to CIN due to the fact that theirs has been together longer and more experienced, KC is starting three rooks, and CIN has the better safety duo until further notice.

Some follow up thoughts:

I gave the nod to Burrow because of Mahomes' ankle. This may or may not move back to KC depending on how bad the sprain was and how quickly Pat heals. But a 100% healthy Burrow is probably better than a hobbled Mahomes.

RB could be a wash depending on the weather, And obviously CIN would get the nod if it's just sloppy field conditions, which favors big backs and can give more margin for error to backup OLs when they have to run-block. If Mahomes were healthy I might give it to CIN simply because Andy rarely leans on the running game, and CIN uses their run game much more in certain situations, like in the RZ, where they are pretty effective. But as Pat is not going to be as effective scrambling, I think Andy is going to lean into the run game a little more than normal, and our RBs are faster and more effective in the passing game.

Their OL is starting two or three backups, 'Nuff said.

Kelce

CIN simply has the better WR1/2, maybe 3

I gave our DL the nod because CIN is starting backups on their OL, and our DL has been playing better in recent weeks

I'm not that familiar with CIN LBs, but I like how ours are playing overall, in spite of their issues in coverage, so it's a wash, at this point until someone argues (rationally) otherwise.

Our secondary is starting 3 rooks, theirs has not, they have better safeties, and they've been playing together longer, so despite the fact that I think our secondary has improved since the last time we played CIN, I can't say our secondary is playing at a higher level than theirs right now, so based on how things looked CIN vs. BUF, I have to give CIN the nod.

My early thought is that Andy is going to have to come up with the gameplan of his career for this one if Mahomes is hobbled and can't extend plays, because that's his superhero ability more than anything else, and Spags is going to have to also come up with the best gameplan he's come up with since being hired as the Chiefs DC. On a sidenote, Cullen needs to show off just how good he is at his job in this one.

I'm sorry but some of this is Chiefs-tinted glasses a bit.

QB is a wash. Mahomes is the superior player but he's going to be hobbled. I don't care what the Chiefs say this week.

RB is Cincy easily.

WR is Cincy easily.

DL is Cincy, but not by much.

The Chiefs have the better TE and the better OL, easily.

It's a wash in the back sevens. The Bengals and Chiefs have really good linebackers, and both secondaries play well but have their deficiencies. (Theirs is talent levels, ours is a simplistic scheme.)

[chiefforlife]

Against the Bengals, sacks dont matter! I know that sounds dumb but Burrow does not get rattled, it does not effect his play. He's been sacked 9 times in a game and still won. That doesnt mean we shouldnt sack him but its not as important as it would be against other opponents.

Pressure will be key, nearly instant pressure will effect the game. Burrow consistently gets the ball out in 2.5 seconds or less. That is how the inexperienced O line has held up.

This means the secondary has to cover tight for 3 seconds! No 5 or 8 yard cushions. Bump them at the line, disrupt the timing for just a second.

This is how you defend their Offense, sacks are great but the 2-3 seconds after the snap is crucial.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by chiefforlife

Against the Bengals, sacks dont matter! I know that sounds dumb but Burrow does not get rattled, it does not effect his play. He's been sacked 9 times in a game and still won. That doesnt mean we shouldnt sack him but its not as important as it would be against other opponents.

Pressure will be key, nearly instant pressure will effect the game. Burrow consistently gets the ball out in 2.5 seconds or less. That is how the inexperienced O line has held up.

This means the secondary has to cover tight for 3 seconds! No 5 or 8 yard cushions. Bump them at the line, disrupt the timing for just a second.

This is how you defend their Offense, sacks are great but the 2-3 seconds after the snap is crucial.

I could not believe how often the Bills would blitz Burrow only for a CB to give a WR a fat, fat cushion.

What was Leslie Frazier doing!?

Some "Playoff Spags" is going to be the solution here.

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by Megatron96

This is just my gut feeling more than anything, and things could change a lot depending on Mahomes' ankle and whether Hardman can go by gameday, but imo, this is basically how the two teams stack up. Now, this is just a broad cut; there's no nuance here, just which unit is better than the other, imho. In some cases I think the difference is very slight, others it's more significant, but this side-by-side comparo doesn't take that into account.



Damn, couldn't get the chart to work right.

Okay, so KC has the advantage, however slight or great in these areas:

Coaching staff Andy.

RB KC has the faster and more athletic RBs, pls they're better receivers

TE Kelce. 'nuff said

OL KC OL is healthy, theirs is not

DL Their OL isn't healthy, our DL is healthy and they've been more efficient and effective in recent weeks than they were in week 13



CIN has the advantage in these areas;

QB (Mahomes won't be able to use his greatest superhero ability, extending plays with his legs)

WR 1/2, maybe even WR3

LB might be a wash; in the first meeting this season CIN had the advantage

Secondary goes to CIN due to the fact that theirs has been together longer and more experienced, KC is starting three rooks, and CIN has the better safety duo until further notice.

Some follow up thoughts:

I gave the nod to Burrow because of Mahomes' ankle. This may or may not move back to KC depending on how bad the sprain was and how quickly Pat heals. But a 100% healthy Burrow is probably better than a hobbled Mahomes.

RB could be a wash depending on the weather, And obviously CIN would get the nod if it's just sloppy field conditions, which favors big backs and can give more margin for error to backup OLs when they have to run-block. If Mahomes were healthy I might give it to CIN simply because Andy rarely leans on the running game, and CIN uses their run game much more in certain situations, like in the RZ, where they are pretty effective. But as Pat is not going to be as effective scrambling, I think Andy is going to lean into the run game a little more than normal, and our RBs are faster and more effective in the passing game.

Their OL is starting two or three backups, 'Nuff said.

Kelce

CIN simply has the better WR1/2, maybe 3

I gave our DL the nod because CIN is starting backups on their OL, and our DL has been playing better in recent weeks

I'm not that familiar with CIN LBs, but I like how ours are playing overall, in spite of their issues in coverage, so it's a wash, at this point until someone argues (rationally) otherwise.

Our secondary is starting 3 rooks, theirs has not, they have better safeties, and they've been playing together longer, so despite the fact that I think our secondary has improved since the last time we played CIN, I can't say our secondary is playing at a higher level than theirs right now, so based on how things looked CIN vs. BUF, I have to give CIN the nod.

My early thought is that Andy is going to have to come up with the gameplan of his career for this one if Mahomes is hobbled and can't extend plays, because that's his superhero ability more than anything else, and Spags is going to have to also come up with the best gameplan he's come up with since being hired as the Chiefs DC. On a sidenote, Cullen needs to show off just how good he is at his job in this one.

Giving KC the OL advantage because Cincy's OL is largely injured makes sense.

Also giving KC the DL advantage because Cincy's OL is largely injured does not make sense.

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

I'm sorry but some of this is Chiefs-tinted glasses a bit.

QB is a wash. Mahomes is the superior player but he's going to be hobbled. I don't care what the Chiefs say this week.

RB is Cincy easily.

WR is Cincy easily.

DL is Cincy, but not by much.

The Chiefs have the better TE and the better OL, easily.

It's a wash in the back sevens. The Bengals and Chiefs have really good linebackers, and both secondaries play well but have their deficiencies. (Theirs is talent levels, ours is a simplistic scheme.)

Hey, your guess is as good as mine.

though I gave CIN the nod at QB, because Burrow is healthy, and Mahomes is not. Not sure how that's "KC tinted."

Also, I don't see CIN having the better RBs, except in short yardage situations. As athletes, ours are better. Mixon and Perine are big, strong RBs with some wiggle and some receiving ability, but they aren't better than McK and Pacheco, imo.

But I will argue that their safeties are better than ours. They've been in scheme longer and I think they're probably better players overall. The CBs I might give KC a slight nod with Sneed and MCDuffie vs. their guys.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by Megatron96

Hey, your guess is as good as mine.

though I gave CIN the nod at QB, because Burrow is healthy, and Mahomes is not. Not sure how that's "KC tinted."

Also, I don't see CIN having the better RBs, except in short yardage situations. As athletes, ours are better. Mixon and Perine are big, strong RBs with some wiggle and some receiving ability, but they aren't better than McK and Pacheco, imo.

But I will argue that their safeties are better than ours. They've been in scheme longer and I think they're probably better players overall. The CBs I might give KC a slight nod with Sneed and MCDuffie vs. their guys.

Fair enough.

[AdolfOliverBush]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

Giving KC the OL advantage because Cincy's OL is largely injured makes sense.

Also giving KC the DL advantage because Cincy's OL is largely injured does not make sense.

Agreed, we've seen this before. Cinci rolls with scrubs on the OL, and our DL makes them look like the '93 Cowboys.

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

Giving KC the OL advantage because Cincy's OL is largely injured makes sense.

Also giving KC the DL advantage because Cincy's OL is largely injured does not make sense.

This is a straight comparison between the two teams, so the relative health/ability of each unit is relevant. In a bubble, I'd probably give CIN DL the nod over KC's. But when considering each unit's opponent for this game, CIN's DL has to face a 100% healthy KC OL, while KC's DL is facing a dinged up CIN OL, so nod should go to the unit facing the lesser opposing squad.

[dirk digler]

QB: = even with Mahomes injury
RB: Bengals
WR: Bengals not even close
TE: Chiefs
OL: Chiefs
Defense: All Bengals
HC: Chiefs
ST's: Probably Bengals

[RaidersOftheCellar]

Re-watched our offensive possessions in Cincinnati.

1st drive - Moved the ball relatively easily until a batted pass near the goal line. Settled for FG.
2nd - Sack on 2nd down. Nobody open on 3rd. Couldn't connect on a bomb.
3rd - Had to convert a 4th and 4 but scored a TD easily after.
4th - Several chunk plays followed by a TD.
5th - Multiple chunk plays. Defense tightened up near the goal line. Mahomes TD dive on 4th down.
6th - Moved the ball well until the Kelce fumble.
7th - Moving the ball until Mahomes was tripped up trying to run for the first on 3rd and short. Andy stupidly tries the FG
instead of trusting Mahomes to pick up 3 yards.

Only one punt. Two sacks. KC was able to get chunk plays fairly consistently, especially on the ground. Solid success in the screen game. Balanced attack overall.

I think Mahomes and Andy really know how to attack this defense now. They were a rare Kelce fumble and a batted pass from probably adding another 10-14 points. And they'd have likely kept the last drive alive had Andy not been a huge pussy and settled for the FG.

Also, Mahomes didn't do a whole lot of scrambling in this game. Mostly stayed in the pocket. Hopefully that will bode well for the rematch.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by RaidersOftheCellar

Re-watched our offensive possessions in Cincinnati.

1st drive - Moved the ball relatively easily until a batted pass near the goal line. Settled for FG.
2nd - Sack on 2nd down. Nobody open on 3rd. Couldn't connect on a bomb.
3rd - Had to convert a 4th and 4 but scored a TD easily after.
4th - Several chunk plays followed by a TD.
5th - Multiple chunk plays. Defense tightened up near the goal line. Mahomes TD dive on 4th down.
6th - Moved the ball well until the Kelce fumble.
7th - Moving the ball until Mahomes was tripped up trying to run for the first on 3rd and short. Andy stupidly tries the FG
instead of trusting Mahomes to pick up 3 yards.

Only one punt. Two sacks. KC was able to get chunk plays fairly consistently, especially on the ground. Solid success in the screen game. Balanced attack overall.

I think Mahomes and Andy really know how to attack this defense now. They were a rare Kelce fumble and a batted pass from probably adding another 10-14 points. And they'd have likely kept the last drive alive had Andy not been a huge pussy and settled for the FG.

Also, Mahomes didn't do a whole lot of scrambling in this game. Mostly stayed in the pocket. Hopefully that will bode well for the rematch.

A Kelce fumble is not rare, I'm sad to say. But I wouldn't bet on it this week. Kelce will be out for blood.

I agree with your analysis otherwise. Gives me some hope.

The Bengals, on paper, may very well be the better team. But the Chiefs have everything you need: a team rallying around their beloved QB, a GOAT caliber QB willing to die on the field if it gets them the win, good counter-punch options on offense across the board, a defensive line playing very loose, the best linebacker corps we've had in the 21st century, and a ton of young, hungry talent in the secondary.

This isn't the best Chiefs team of all time, but it's probably Top 8. And with Mahomes out for blood, they're going to punch above their weight.

I trust Burrow and the Bengals to roll with the punches and deliver their own haymakers, but I don't think this is going to be a route either way unless Mahomes goes ham.

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by RaidersOftheCellar

Re-watched our offensive possessions in Cincinnati.

1st drive - Moved the ball relatively easily until a batted pass near the goal line. Settled for FG.
2nd - Sack on 2nd down. Nobody open on 3rd. Couldn't connect on a bomb.
3rd - Had to convert a 4th and 4 but scored a TD easily after.
4th - Several chunk plays followed by a TD.
5th - Multiple chunk plays. Defense tightened up near the goal line. Mahomes TD dive on 4th down.
6th - Moved the ball well until the Kelce fumble.
7th - Moving the ball until Mahomes was tripped up trying to run for the first on 3rd and short. Andy stupidly tries the FG
instead of trusting Mahomes to pick up 3 yards.

Only one punt. Two sacks. KC was able to get chunk plays fairly consistently, especially on the ground. Solid success in the screen game. Balanced attack overall.

I think Mahomes and Andy really know how to attack this defense now. They were a rare Kelce fumble and a batted pass from probably adding another 10-14 points. And they'd have likely kept the last drive alive had Andy not been a huge pussy and settled for the FG.

Also, Mahomes didn't do a whole lot of scrambling in this game. Mostly stayed in the pocket. Hopefully that will bode well for the rematch.

Thx for that tidbit. Hopefully Pat won't have to scramble much in this one, but if I were CIN I'd be blitzing a lot more than they have previously. It'll be interesting to see what they do. And how Andy will counter.