Let’s talk about the Eagles (Super Bowl edition!)

[RunKC]

Well fellas what do we think?

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Took a quick peek at what seems to be the leading Eagles board.

Lot of confidence there, and I understand it. I don't think they're crediting how much of their sack totals were driven by below-average QBs with bad awareness holding the ball.

Lot of references to handling Daniel Jones. LOL. Which I think says a lot about the QBs they've faced this season.

Daniel Jones has no peripheral vision.

This was known coming out which is why he needs really good tackles.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

Daniel Jones has no peripheral vision.

This was known coming out which is why he needs really good tackles.

You watch that sack highlight video, and it makes you wonder if that's the case with a lot of guys.

33 of their sacks came in these games:

Giants x2
Commanders x2
Colts x1
Texans x1
Saints x1

[TwistedChief]

Originally Posted by smithandrew051

Let’s face it. Every NFL board is weak compared to this one.

It's precisely why every other team's message board has pegged our level of discourse as the lowest of the low.

Pure jealousy on all sides. We're here spittin' Shakespeare and they're all wanting to read a Cocomelon comic book.

[smithandrew051]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

You watch that sack highlight video, and it makes you wonder if that's the case with a lot of guys.

33 of their sacks came in these games:

Giants x2
Commanders x2
Colts x1
Texans x1
Saints x1

The fact that they have 27% more sacks than the second highest total (70 vs 55) yet they’re just around the top in practically all of the other pass rush metrics tells the whole story to me.

The sack total is a clear outlier, which makes me think the level of QB play (also an outlier) is the cause.

[tredadda]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Hard to screen pass against a zone team, though. At least with traditional zones.

The Eagles do like to send 5 a lot. It will be interesting to see if their DC switches that up while facing Mahomes. It's hard to imagine he will considering they have had so much success

And that would be a huge mistake as KC's offense is different from any they faced this year. You can guarantee that Andy is game planning for their defense. To not even adjust is foolish and solely dependent on them lining up and just beating their guy straight up.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Youngbuck17

The Eagles are 18th in blitzing percentage. That's not how they get pressure. They more often only rush 4 and still get home. No doubt Mahomes is the best QB they've faced all year, and he'll get his, but the Philly defense's goal is to just make the windows to throw into as small as possible. We'll see if that works out this game. If the front 4 can't get to Mahomes often enough, he'll have a big day against the zone coverages and Kelce with have 120 and 2 TDs. But if the Dline can do what they've done all year and force mistakes and turnovers, the Eagles will have a chance.

I stand corrected. It seemed like they did it a lot more than they apparently did.

One thing I noticed in watching the "sack" video and some of their games and clips is that it looks like they routinely rush their edge defenders HARD to beat the tackles to the top of the arc which puts a lot of pressure on their DTs to win their matchups. Obviously, Cox and Hargrave win a lot but it brings me back to using screens, draws, and quick passes to the flats and on slants because the Eagles are leaving GAPING holes to take advantage of and are rushing too hard to stop it.

I saw many instances where a back was able to slip through that line with ease (no chips, tugs, etc) and present himself in the shallow middle or flats. It also looked like the LBs were just barely keeping up with very mediocre receiving options crossing the intermediate zone. The QBs weren't hitting either option because most of them are taking too long to process the play and/or not trusting their receivers to win their matchup. I have to fathom Mahomes will trust Kelce and Smith-Schuster to win against those guys, and they should.

If Philly's focus is going to continue to be that hard rush to beat our tackles to the top, and they undoubtedly will because Brown and Wylie don't have the footspeed to keep up, then they can take advantage of that by exposing the flats with quick outs with McKinnon and Pacheco and quick slants to Toney and Co.

The Chiefs can also make them slow that rush down a little with screens and running the football and then they can get into the RPO game they love to keep the rush focused on both facets and not pinning their ears back.

The Chiefs aren't going to use duo blocks on Cox and Hargrave to try to win in the run or passing game. We aren't the Giants. Thuney and Humphrey are both 2nd Team All-Pros this year. Thuney matches any athleticism Philly has up front. He can handle Hargrave, Cox, or anyone else one-on-one. Smith probably should be an All-Pro or very near it, but he got dinged a bit. He's a tough out and I feel he's a one-on-one matchup most of the time with Cox. Any of those three can handle being passed those DTs and any can move to the 2nd level and get on linebackers.

If anyone is a master at exposing an aggressive pass rush, it's Reid. If the Chiefs win, I'm prepared to see the Eagles' death by 1,000 paper cuts and not too many deep shots.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Took a quick peek at what seems to be the leading Eagles board.

Lot of confidence there, and I understand it. I don't think they're crediting how much of their sack totals were driven by below-average QBs with bad awareness holding the ball.

Lot of references to handling Daniel Jones. LOL. Which I think says a lot about the QBs they've faced this season.

I don't fault them for being confident. A roster analysis sure says they have a talented team.

But man, they're just awfully tough to get a read on because that schedule was just laughably shitty. And then they got a couple of pre-season caliber opponents to get to the championship. It's like that year KU made the Final 4 without playing anyone higher than a 9 seed.

But ultimately they'll get their chance to prove it.

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I don't fault them for being confident. A roster analysis sure says they have a talented team.

But man, they're just awfully tough to get a read on because that schedule was just laughably shitty. And then they got a couple of pre-season caliber opponents to get to the championship. It's like that year KU made the Final 4 without playing anyone higher than a 9 seed.

But ultimately they'll get their chance to prove it.

I think at best they're like Cinci and a legit top 4 team. At worst they're like the Bills and weak spots will show when competing against other top teams.

I think they're solid from top to bottom. That said I think KC gets a 7 pt win. We're use to playing the big boys and after a feeling out period in the first half this KC team knows how to adjust, adapt, and overcome...

[smithandrew051]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I don't fault them for being confident. A roster analysis sure says they have a talented team.

But man, they're just awfully tough to get a read on because that schedule was just laughably shitty. And then they got a couple of pre-season caliber opponents to get to the championship. It's like that year KU made the Final 4 without playing anyone higher than a 9 seed.

But ultimately they'll get their chance to prove it.

Two fan bases that absolutely have distorted views about the value of an elite QB: Ravens and Eagles.

Ravens won it all with Dilfer and Flacco. Eagles won it with Foles.

I don’t think those fan bases see QB the way we do. We’ve had it all expect the QB and repeatedly had our hearts ripped out by the elite QBs.

I don’t blame Eagles fans for maybe not valuing having the advantage at QB as much as we do, since they beat Brady with Foles.

[Megatron96]

It all comes back to the trenches.

Can our OL hold up long enough for Pat to operate the offense?

Can our DL both blunt their running attack and generate enough pressure to force Hurts into making mistakes?

The second issue is the crux, imo. That's two jobs the DL has to dominate long enough to have the effect we need to win. They have to first stop the PHI running attack well enough to make them pass the ball; basically get them to 3rd and long consistently.

And then they have to beat that OL in the passing game and generate enough pressure to force some mistakes.

If our DL can accomplish those two things, the Chiefs win. But that's a really tall task. Our DL is pretty good at stopping the run situationally, say for a series or two, or even for a quarter but they aren't a run-stopping defense by design. The defense is designed to prevent opposing teams from passing effectively down the stretch when the Chiefs are trying to hold into a lead.

And yeah, KC did very well vs. CIN, but their OL was 3/5ths backups or injured, which is not the situation facing them in the SB. That's the best OL in football and they're healthy. Going to need huge games from both CJ and FC, and probably at least one other DL, for 60 minutes.

But if they can do those two things, the Chiefs are more than capable of beating the Eagles. Hurts is like 25th when pressured. He was the 7th most sacked QB in 2022, so he's holding the ball too long on a regular basis. Probably isn't processing that quickly, and isn't the most situationally aware QB at this point of his career. These are issues that the Chiefs can take advantage of, if the DL can do both of those things stated above.

[jjchieffan]

I'm not scared of Philly. For starters, I think that the only reason that they beat the 49ers was because Purdy got hurt. I know that their pass rush is fierce, but they haven't tried to get to Mahomes and we know how elusive he can be. Also, Hurts threw for 121 yards in that game. I'm sorry, but 121 yards isn't going to cut it against the Chiefs. If Cheffers doesn't screw us, they Chiefs should win by double digits.

[Best22]

Originally Posted by smithandrew051

Two fan bases that absolutely have distorted views about the value of an elite QB: Ravens and Eagles.

Ravens won it all with Dilfer and Flacco. Eagles won it with Foles.

I don’t think those fan bases see QB the way we do. We’ve had it all expect the QB and repeatedly had our hearts ripped out by the elite QBs.

I don’t blame Eagles fans for maybe not valuing having the advantage at QB as much as we do, since they beat Brady with Foles.

Mark Brunnell and Blake Bortles took the Jaguars to a few AFCCGs

Meanwhile the only non Hall of fame quarterbacks to win a playoff game with the Chiefs were Alex Smith and Steve Deberg. Steve beat the Raiders 10-6 in the wildcard, on a touchdown reception that wouldn’t even count with todays rules. And Alex Smith game managed us to a win against Hoyers Texans in the wildcard.

[DenverChief]

Originally Posted by Megatron96

It all comes back to the trenches.

Can our OL hold up long enough for Pat to operate the offense?

Can our DL both blunt their running attack and generate enough pressure to force Hurts into making mistakes?

The second issue is the crux, imo. That's two jobs the DL has to dominate long enough to have the effect we need to win. They have to first stop the PHI running attack well enough to make them pass the ball; basically get them to 3rd and long consistently.

And then they have to beat that OL in the passing game and generate enough pressure to force some mistakes.

If our DL can accomplish those two things, the Chiefs win. But that's a really tall task. Our DL is pretty good at stopping the run situationally, say for a series or two, or even for a quarter but they aren't a run-stopping defense by design. The defense is designed to prevent opposing teams from passing effectively down the stretch when the Chiefs are trying to hold into a lead.

And yeah, KC did very well vs. CIN, but their OL was 3/5ths backups or injured, which is not the situation facing them in the SB. That's the best OL in football and they're healthy. Going to need huge games from both CJ and FC, and probably at least one other DL, for 60 minutes.

But if they can do those two things, the Chiefs are more than capable of beating the Eagles. Hurts is like 25th when pressured. He was the 7th most sacked QB in 2022, so he's holding the ball too long on a regular basis. Probably isn't processing that quickly, and isn't the most situationally aware QB at this point of his career. These are issues that the Chiefs can take advantage of, if the DL can do both of those things stated above.

I think we will see big days from Jones/Clark/Saunders and Danna against Philly. I think stopping their run game is gonna come down to how much Gay and Bolton can stay disciplined to the line and keep them from getting more than 3 YPC as well as getting good run support from the secondary

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by jjchieffan

I'm not scared of Philly. For starters, I think that the only reason that they beat the 49ers was because Purdy got hurt. I know that their pass rush is fierce, but they haven't tried to get to Mahomes and we know how elusive he can be. Also, Hurts threw for 121 yards in that game. I'm sorry, but 121 yards isn't going to cut it against the Chiefs.

This is important. Hurts has not looked like himself since coming back from the shoulder injury. Now, he's had two weeks to heal, so maybe he's back to normal for the SB, in which case that's an even tougher task for the defense.

But if his shoulder is still bothering him as it has in his first two playoff games, it certainly levels the field for our defense significantly. I think Spags is going t test that shoulder early, which means he's probably going to have to sell out vs. the run in the first half, when he can. Probably going to have to roll the dice a couple times with some run blitzes (something he did in last season's week 4 meeting to good effect). But it's a gamble; call a run blitz at the wrong time, and PHI could score on that play. I'm going to be very interested to see how Spags calls things in the first half.

[DenverChief]

Originally Posted by Best22

Mark Brunnell and Blake Bortles took the Jaguars to a few AFCCGs

Meanwhile the only non Hall of fame quarterbacks to win a playoff game with the Chiefs were Alex Smith and Steve Deberg. Steve beat the Raiders 10-6 in the wildcard, on a touchdown reception that wouldn’t even count with todays rules. And Alex Smith game managed us to a win against Hoyers Texans in the wildcard.

Blake Bortles - Jesus - remind me of the Steve DeBerg TD play that wouldn't count?