Duncan's Comprehensive offseason plan (March)

[duncan_idaho]

Looking at this again now that we know a little more...Here's a run at one scenario for KC.

1. Free agency

Let walk: Orlando Brown, Juju Smith-Schuster, Andrew Wylie, Derrick Nnadi, Khalen Saunders, Carlos Dunlap, Brandon Williams, Juan Thornhill, Mecole Hardman, Blake Bell, Ronald Jones, Jerrick McKinnon, Nick Allegretti, Deion Bush
Trade: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Day 3 pick in 2024, save $2.5M in cap space)
Extend Chris Jones (add 4 years, $120M, roughly to his deal and drop his 23 cap hit to about $17M)
Re-sign: Tommy Townsend (4 years, $12.2M), Justin Watson (1 year, 3.8M)
ERFA Tender: Fortson, Buchele
RFA: Tershawn Wharton (2.2M)
Sign:
TE Mike Gesicki (1 year, $8M base with incentives to $12M)
T Andre Dillard (2 years, $14.2M with $4M to sign and incentives to $20M)
T Kelvin Beachum (1 year, $3.5M)
DT Greg Gaines (4 years, $41M, 5.6M cap hit in 23)

These moves leave me short of the cash needed to operate/sign the draft class. So I restructure $20M of Mahomes salary, saving $16M against the 2023 cap and leaving me about $18M in cap space to maneuever with. This increases the likelihood I need to move some Mahomes money over the next few years, but that’s the plan, anyway…

My goal with this was to add depth at the T spots that I can live with if the draft doesn’t break my way. Same at DT. With Gesickki,I’m fully embracing running 12 set as more and more of a primary set, and I drastically upgrade TE2. Having a better option there should also help with load-balancing Travis Kelce.

2. Draft: (mock courtesy of NFL mock draft database)

1.31 – Trade to Houston for 2.33, 3.76 (they move up to take Daiwan Jones, OT, Ohio State)
2.33 – Derick Hall, DE, Auburn
Trade 2.63, 4.134, 6.219, 2024 5th to Seattle for 2.52
2.52 – Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
Trade 3.73, 5.168, 6,217, 2024 6th to Carolina for 2.61
2.61 –Keanu Benton, DT, Wisconson
3.95 – Jonathan Mingo, WR, Ole Miss
4.122 – Zack Kuntz, TE, Old Dominion
6.197 –Xavier Smith, WR, Florida A&M
7.227 – Darell Luter, CB, South Alabama
7.251 – Jerrod Clark, DT, Coastal Carolina
7.257 – Brenton Cox, DE, Florida

My goal with the draft is to be aggressive in the middle rounds, where the depth exists, and take the best value at key spots (OL, DL, WR).

Hall is a great long-term complement to Karlaftis. I love Wright as a future RT prospect. He doesn’t give me a long-term LT option, necessarily, but if I can handle one side of the line I feel good with it. With the OT depth, if I wasn’t in position for Wright or didn’t move up, I could have rolled with Freeland or Bergeron or Duncan instead.

3. Post-draft Depth:

QB Mahomes/Buchele
RB Pacheco/cheap vet
WR Valdes-Scantling, Toney, Moore, Watson, Mingo, Smith (I really like Smith’s speed and experience being the “movement” guy in his offense)
TE Kelce, Gesicki, Gray, Kuntz

LT Dillard, Beachum
LG Thuney, FA
C Humphrey, FA
RG Smith, Kinnard
RT Wright, Niang

DE Karlaftis, Danna, Hall, vet,
DT Jones, Gaines, Benton, Wharton, vet

LB Bolton, Gay, Chenal, cheap vet

CB Sneed, McDuffie, Watson, Williams, special teams vet
S Reed, Cook, cheap vet,

4. Summer FA

In the final stage of free agency, I’d be shopping for a Dunlap-like depth piece at DE and have around $10M of room on hand to do it (could always restructure on another player if needed). I'm looking for cheap veterans in a few spots, but nothng that is bank-breaking.

I've thrown numbers at OT and am being creative in trying to find an underrated value to improve the passing attack/replace Juju.

[raybec 4]

You tendered Fortson but didn't put him on the 53.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by raybec 4

You tendered Fortson but didn't put him on the 53.

I would tender him at this rate but not sure he'd make the active if they land Kuntz in the draft.

I wasn't trying to list the whole 53, necessarily. I think Kuntz would kick him down to the PS.

[kccrow]

1. Trading from 31 to 33 probably nets a 5th round pick, not a high 3rd. I'm all for trading back in this draft, actually, but I just don't think Veach will leave KC out of the 1st round.

2. I'm exceptionally high on Derick Hall so I'm all about taking him. The only question for me is if Foskey is there then I'm really drawing straws. I give the edge to the longer, bigger guy for Spags. Maybe Foskey isn't there though.

3. I'm on opposite ends of the spectrum with Wright from alot of guys, I can see that. Wright is an exceptional RT and they do go in round 1. I won't say he won't fall to the 2nd because that could happen but I can't fathom him falling anywhere near that far, especially with Pittsburgh picking twice and before 52 in the 2nd, not to mention some other teams needy for a RT early on in the 2nd like Washington, New England, and Atlanta.

4. Some respectable people see Benton as the 2nd best DT in the draft. Yes, ahead of Bresee. 61 seems like a pipe dream, honestly. Of course, we didn't think Travis Jones would fall to the 3rd last year but there's a big difference between playing at Wisconsin and playing at UConn and to top it off Benton is simply just a better player.

5. If Mingo makes it to 95, I'm all in. I think its more than reasonable to see him in the third round. He's a guy I feel like you might need to move up for a bit in the 3rd though.

6. I'm not a big fan of Kuntz. I don't think he's terrible but he's a bit robotic for me. He can run like a deer in a straight line but I don't see him making the cuts to gain separation in the NFL on the reg.

7. I'd be thrilled if Xavier Smith is there in the 6th. I don't know if he's there quite that late. He's electric man... his agility and top-end are really, really good and he's got great hands. I think he's going to be this year's Josh Williams with a chance to go in the 4th with a 5th round floor. I'd be tempted to bet dollars KC moves up for him early on day 3. He's going to be a weapon. Amazing story as a walk-on to one of the best WRs in college football.

8. I'm pretty high on Darell Luter late. I see him as a 6th but maybe he's a 7th. Either way, like him alot. I also like Clark alot. I think he's gotta marinate but he might be a nice get for a 7th rounder in a couple years as a run stuffer.

9. There's probably not a player I want less tahn Brenton Cox. Please no.

[Titty Meat]

Originally Posted by raybec 4

You tendered Fortson but didn't put him on the 53.

He got hurt signing his tender and is on IR

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by kccrow

1. Trading from 31 to 33 probably nets a 5th round pick, not a high 3rd. I'm all for trading back in this draft, actually, but I just don't think Veach will leave KC out of the 1st round.

2. I'm exceptionally high on Derick Hall so I'm all about taking him. The only question for me is if Foskey is there then I'm really drawing straws. I give the edge to the longer, bigger guy for Spags. Maybe Foskey isn't there though.

3. I'm on opposite ends of the spectrum with Wright from alot of guys, I can see that. Wright is an exceptional RT and they do go in round 1. I won't say he won't fall to the 2nd because that could happen but I can't fathom him falling anywhere near that far, especially with Pittsburgh picking twice and before 52 in the 2nd, not to mention some other teams needy for a RT early on in the 2nd like Washington, New England, and Atlanta.

4. Some respectable people see Benton as the 2nd best DT in the draft. Yes, ahead of Bresee. 61 seems like a pipe dream, honestly. Of course, we didn't think Travis Jones would fall to the 3rd last year but there's a big difference between playing at Wisconsin and playing at UConn and to top it off Benton is simply just a better player.

5. If Mingo makes it to 95, I'm all in. I think its more than reasonable to see him in the third round. He's a guy I feel like you might need to move up for a bit in the 3rd though.

6. I'm not a big fan of Kuntz. I don't think he's terrible but he's a bit robotic for me. He can run like a deer in a straight line but I don't see him making the cuts to gain separation in the NFL on the reg.

7. I'd be thrilled if Xavier Smith is there in the 6th. I don't know if he's there quite that late. He's electric man... his agility and top-end are really, really good and he's got great hands. I think he's going to be this year's Josh Williams with a chance to go in the 4th with a 5th round floor. I'd be tempted to bet dollars KC moves up for him early on day 3. He's going to be a weapon. Amazing story as a walk-on to one of the best WRs in college football.

8. I'm pretty high on Darell Luter late. I see him as a 6th but maybe he's a 7th. Either way, like him alot. I also like Clark alot. I think he's gotta marinate but he might be a nice get for a 7th rounder in a couple years as a run stuffer.

9. There's probably not a player I want less tahn Brenton Cox. Please no.

Yeah, it's a tough time to run an actual mock draft on one of the sims. The boards are closer but still fairly far off.

That was a trade that was offered to me. Thought it was unbalanced but it's all for shits and grins anyway, right?

Re: Wright, yeah, I don't know that he lasts that long. That's why I was referencing the other group - one of whom I'm sure would be (and all, honestly, at that point in the draft). With a pair of veteran tackles added in FA and Niang back, I think they could survive 2023 with that player being less ready Day 1.

Re: getting guys where I got them, yeah, super hard to say if it's realistic. I do think KC will make a pick in the 30s and then try to move up into the 50s, with OL and DL both being addressed at this picks. Maybe Benton is that pick in the 50s...

[Couch-Potato]

I like the players in the draft well enough, but I think we're not as good as we were the previous year at OT, WR, RB, S and probably at DL for at least a year. Pretty much all of those were plus positions for us last year when we won the SB. Sort of a reloading offseason, not necessarily a step forward. No OBJ contract, no JuJu contract, no splash signing, no 1st rd pick, I'm not sure M Gesicki's ~300-400 yards a season are worth $12m a year to me. ...fans aren't going to be happy.

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by Couch-Potato

I like the players in the draft well enough, but I think we're not as good as we were the previous year at OT, WR, RB, S and probably at DL for at least a year. Pretty much all of those were plus positions for us last year when we won the SB. Sort of a reloading offseason, not necessarily a step forward. No OBJ contract, no JuJu contract, no splash signing, no 1st rd pick, I'm not sure M Gesicki's ~300-400 yards a season are worth $12m a year to me. ...fans aren't going to be happy.

Literally what everyone was saying last July.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Couch-Potato

I like the players in the draft well enough, but I think we're not as good as we were the previous year at OT, WR, RB, S and probably at DL for at least a year. Pretty much all of those were plus positions for us last year when we won the SB. Sort of a reloading offseason, not necessarily a step forward. No OBJ contract, no JuJu contract, no splash signing, no 1st rd pick, I'm not sure M Gesicki's ~300-400 yards a season are worth $12m a year to me. ...fans aren't going to be happy.

I couldn’t care less what FB fan thinks. FB fan is a moron distracted by big splashy names.

Keep in mind that there are depth guys I didn’t include specific names for at RB and DE. Late signings can help at those spots and may even be the same guys (McKinon and Dunlap).

I’d argue OT group IS at worst a wash and has more upside. RT definitely improved from Wylie. With Dillard and Beachum and Niang, I’m confident someone can provide average play on the left side and Dillard could be a really nice upgrade because he fits the style of play better. If the chiefs jump from below average at RT and drop from above average to average or a little above at LT, I think that line is better.

The idea at WR is to pivot into more of a 2-TE set. Thus, Gesicki. The Chiefs basically used Smith-Schuster like a TE all year, anyway. You’re changing for a year and using him as a stopgap while your young WRs acclimate. And if Gesicki hits all the incentives he definitely isn’t a 400 yard receiver. More like 1000 at that point. Maybe I’m reading his market value wrong, but I see him as a guy who could come in and do what they asked Gray/Fortson to do, but do it better.

Parris Campbell has been discussed a lot around here as a Smith-Schuster alternative and would still be my top preference there, over Gesicki. But I was trying to explore a different approach.

This DL as a group would be better than 23. Gaines is a sizable improvement at DT. Benton is a great prospect. And at DE, Karlaftis/Danna/Hall/late veteran signing would be an upgrade, too.

S I don’t see as a step back. I think Cook slides in and performs well. Sneed is effectively a 3rd S, too.

[DJ's left nut]

You're gonna have to sell me on Gaines here. Biggly.

Because your offseason plan says he's good enough to call up The Bank of Mahomes and ask for a loan to pay for him. Don't sign Gaines and you can probably avoid the Mahomes deferrals.

I see Gaines as a 2 year contract guy where the 2nd one isn't even a real year. He doesn't do anything particularly well. He's not an interior rusher, not a good run defender. He's just there. He's a guy you can get in the 4th round virtually every year.

I see zero chance Saunders gets the kind of money you've paid Gaines in this hypothetical and I'd much prefer Saunders over Gaines if the price points are the same (and Saunders is likely to cost far less).

What are you seeing here? This is a street free agent caliber player, IMO.

[DJ's left nut]

As for Gesicki - I don't see it being worth the marginal cost.

Would he be better than Gray/Fortson? Sure. Probably. $8 million better? Nah - don't see that. Gesicki is a bit limited in that he's fairly stiff. He's something of a seam runner and I don't know that this makes him an ideal fit as a TE2 because I don't see him as a guy like JJSS who sits in zones really.

He's like a more experienced Fortson in a lot of ways.

So I guess that's to say "Duncan, I do not like your plan..."

I'm not gonna wish an AIDS fire on you or anything because at least you didn't suggest moving Thuney and his T-Rex arms to LT or something. But I think you spent $20 million(ish) about as poorly as one could spend it this side of 8 games worth of Daniel Jones. It just seems like both cases spent a fair amount of cap but didn't get us much improvement at all.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

As for Gesicki - I don't see it being worth the marginal cost.

Would he be better than Gray/Fortson? Sure. Probably. $8 million better? Nah - don't see that. Gesicki is a bit limited in that he's fairly stiff. He's something of a seam runner and I don't know that this makes him an ideal fit as a TE2 because I don't see him as a guy like JJSS who sits in zones really.

He's like a more experienced Fortson in a lot of ways.

So I guess that's to say "Duncan, I do not like your plan..."

I'm not gonna wish an AIDS fire on you or anything because at least you didn't suggest moving Thuney and his T-Rex arms to LT or something. But I think you spent $20 million(ish) about as poorly as one could spend it this side of 8 games worth of Daniel Jones. It just seems like both cases spent a fair amount of cap but didn't get us much improvement at all.

Gaines is based on a few things... one, he's a nose tackle WITH some pass rushing juice. I started from the idea of "Man, I want Da'Ron Payne" and started looking for options who can do that.

I think he's a better and more established player than Saunders, by a large degree. He's what you hoped Saunders could turn into (he flashed it but wasn't consistent at it and was not good against the run).

I may have overshot his worth, but I'm basing it on his Spotrac market value, too.

Re: Gesicki, I am not personally 100 percent sold on that plan or pounding the table for it. But I am trying to turn over some stones and find alternate routes if they don't spend for Smith-Schuster.

Parris Campbell is possibly a better fit/idea. He's really effective against zone but has some really nice speed/acceleration. Injuries are a concern for him, but he doesn't seem to have a nagging issue that you have to manage like Smith-Schuster does with his knee...

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Gaines is based on a few things... one, he's a nose tackle WITH some pass rushing juice. I started from the idea of "Man, I want Da'Ron Payne" and started looking for options who can do that.

I think he's a better and more established player than Saunders, by a large degree. He's what you hoped Saunders could turn into (he flashed it but wasn't consistent at it and was not good against the run).

I may have overshot his worth, but I'm basing it on his Spotrac market value, too.

Yeah, I kinda feel like you're overstating his ability, but reasonable minds and what not. More established than Saunders? Sure. Better? And by a large degree? Nah - I just haven't seen it. Pass rush juice? 16 total pressures in 458 pass rush snaps is...bad. It's awful. For context, Saunders had 15 total pressures in 248 pass rush snaps. It's not Nnadi bad, but it's not far removed.

He's a guy who's benefitted immensely by playing next to Donald and has still only been...fine. Granted, He'd play next to Jones here, but I think you can do far better there.

Spotrac has Dalvin Tomlinson at 3/$24 million - I'm taking Tomlinson over Gaines every time.

But FYI - Spotrac has Gaines market at $31 million over 4 not $41 million. I'd still prefer Tomlinson at his #. I think he's just a much better player than Gaines.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

You're gonna have to sell me on Gaines here. Biggly.

Because your offseason plan says he's good enough to call up The Bank of Mahomes and ask for a loan to pay for him. Don't sign Gaines and you can probably avoid the Mahomes deferrals.

I see Gaines as a 2 year contract guy where the 2nd one isn't even a real year. He doesn't do anything particularly well. He's not an interior rusher, not a good run defender. He's just there. He's a guy you can get in the 4th round virtually every year.

I see zero chance Saunders gets the kind of money you've paid Gaines in this hypothetical and I'd much prefer Saunders over Gaines if the price points are the same (and Saunders is likely to cost far less).

What are you seeing here? This is a street free agent caliber player, IMO.

This statement means you have absolutely no clue about Greg Gaines. Then you double down. Man oh, man. Mentioning Saunders and Gaines in the same breath is like comparing Mike Danna to Matt Judon. I normally love your takes bro but this is not one of them.

[kccrow]

And to be less harsh DJ, I do really like what Saunders did this year but he has some major flaws that I don't think are correctable. He just doesn't do what Gaines does. Sorry man. I'll quit being a dickhead.