Let's Talk About the Bills, 2023 Divisional Round Edition

[Bearcat]

Discuss.

[duncan_idaho]

Bills fans are confident - I get it. They won at Arrowhead earlier this year to start the whole thing and Allen is an alien.

But seeing them trash talk the Chiefs' recent wins is kind of funny. Since the Chiefs' recent wins are the Bills' recent wins, other than the Cowboys.

They hammered Dallas at home. Cool. Cowboys are a fraud as we have now seen again.

They escaped the Easton Stick-led Chargers. Cool. They're terrible. The Chiefs beat the same Chargers a few weeks with ****ing Blaine Gabbert at QB, while giving up fewer points and playing a bunch of subs on D.


They handled the Patriots 27-21. Chiefs cruised 27-17.

They took out Miami for the divison, a game they were losing . The Chiefs completely manhandled the Dolphins. Weather was a factor for sure, but the Chiefs gave them nothing.

Yes, emotions and motivations for the Bills will be high. But emotion only carries you so far, and the emotions and motivations for the Chiefs will be sky-high, too.

[stevieray]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

Honestly, this game will come down to the receivers.

This game will come down to the defense.

How many points did Buffalo put up in the second half, before Toney screwed us?

Even with the red zone inefficiency, they are still putting up points on possessions.

They aren't going to stop Kelce, Rice and Pacheco from moving the ball.

Spags and his Defense are carrying the weight this year, even Pat knows it.

I like our chances.

[tredadda]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

It is not controversial to say this is maybe the biggest challenge we've ever faced in the postseason.

Not even close. The SB vs SF was far more of a challenge. Jacksonville after Mahomes was hobbled as well as Cincy (who KC could not seem to beat) with Mahomes injured and throwing to MVS, Moore, and Kemp last year was worse. Plus that SB against a loaded Philly team with an injured Mahomes (who reaggravated it to end the half) was much harder than this game.

[tredadda]

Originally Posted by DRM08

Tampa Super Bowl was probably more difficult. Tampa was very healthy while KC’s offensive line was not healthy. Tampa had a very loaded roster, probably more loaded than Buffalo.

That roster was absolutely loaded. HOF QB, HOF TE, elite OLine and Dline, HOF WR, another HOF caliber WR (had he not been insane). Elite LBs and solid secondary. That was a very, very good roster.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by stevieray

This game will come down to the defense.

How many points did Buffalo put up in the second half, before Toney screwed us?

Even with the red zone inefficiency, they are still putting up points on possessions.

They aren't going to stop Kelce, Rice and Pacheco from moving the ball.

Spags and his Defense are carrying the weight this year, even Pat knows it.

I like our chances.

The Kelce-Rice combo is a major advantage because the second level of their defense is devastated with injuries. The Chiefs can capitalize on that.

What do you do if you're Buffalo, however? Why would you play any safeties deep in this game? You pull them into intermediate zones and you dare the Chiefs, with atrocious deep passing numbers this year, to beat you deep. It'll help contain Pacheco and mitigate what the Chiefs can do to you shallow.

At that point, you just bet that Watson/Hardman/MVS cannot convert and beat you deep. Mahomes will put it in their hands, but will they make the plays they need to make.

And that's the best gamble they have. The Bills can put up 20-23 points on us. Can we put up 24+ on them?

And I think that's a 50/50 proposition, with the receiver gaffes and self-inflicted penalties.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by tredadda

That roster was absolutely loaded. HOF QB, HOF TE, elite OLine and Dline, HOF WR, another HOF caliber WR (had he not been insane). Elite LBs and solid secondary. That was a very, very good roster.

That was probably the best Chiefs team we've ever had, too, but injuries completely ravaged our OL.

[Jerm]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

I spent the evening re-watching the Buffalo game.

Every break in that game went the Bills’ way.

Chiefs’ first drive, they’re moving the ball well, Epenesa makes a nice play batting the ball and it pops right back to him for the INT.

Bills’ 1st scoring drive, Edwards drops a pass that hits him in both hands and would have given the Chiefs the ball at the Buffalo 40.

The Chiefs offense moved the ball pretty well against Buffalo despite not having much pop in the run game and not getting much extra yardage. Definitely can see their inability to run it outside with Pacheco’s speed.

Rice had a fumble on a promising drive.

The Bills pulled off the crazy 3rd and 9 where Allen flips it to Murray as he’s going out of bounds, Murray drops - Murray was ruled to catch it on the field, instead of it incomplete, and the fumble slips through the hands of a few Chiefs out of bounds. Replay lets the call on the field stand. Bills ended up punting on this one, but a fumble recovery gives the ball to KC in much better field position.

And then there’s the Toney thing (and Mahomes clearly not being over it).

Having Pacheco and Donovan Smith back for this one will be big.

Another interesting aspect about that game is that for about the first 2 and half quarters or so, Spags just showed a static zone look for the most part. The Bills had some success against it but not just running over it...once it become apparent the Chiefs had a real shot, he mixed things up and ran some crazy looks. After that, Buffalo and Allen couldn't do shit...he had them in a blender.

Basically he used the strategy from last year against Cincy this year against them...I expect him to be in his bag on Sunday.

[Gary Cooper]

Originally Posted by FringeNC

Only second time we are underdog in playoff game. First time was Eagles SB. +2.5 vs. Bills. +1.5 vs. Eagles.

I made the point earlier, but this is not the 2021 Bills team. Yeah, we were out home and had Tyreek, but that Bills team had just been demolishing people. +2.5 point underdog winning barely even qualifies as an upset.

Yeah, the 2021 Bills were better. They were coming off a dominant blowout of the Patriots. Also, they had the league's top ranked defense that year...…..even if they didn't seem that way against KC.

Just like with Miami, the Bills defense is banged up. The Chiefs should move the ball on them. Buffalo is great at forcing turnovers and unfortunately the Chiefs have been good at turning it over. If they protect the ball, they should put up numbers and points against Buffalo.

The Chiefs defense is playing great but Allen is capable of putting up points by himself. He always brings it against KC. He's the biggest concern. If he plays even a slightly above average game, Buffalo loses. Allen needs to be elite for them to win.

[In58men]

Looks like direct flights from Buffalo to KC are already sold out?

[stevieray]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

At that point, you just bet that Watson/Hardman/MVS cannot convert and beat you deep.

That's not their game plan. They are going to TAKE what they give them and exploit it.

We were all spoiled by the air show, and I'm sure it will come back, but it's not the only way to win football games. Miami's speed only took then so far.

[Lzen]

Originally Posted by ForeverIowan

Mahomes will be LASER focused for this one. I just don't think the Bills have the pass rush to seriously fluster him.

You don't think Miller and Oliver are enough? I mean, pretty much nothing flusters him when he's playoff focused. But they might bother him a bit. We will need WRs to step up, offensive line to not make mistakes, and Kelce to stop dropping passes and we'll be fine.

[ChiTown]

Originally Posted by In58men

Looks like direct flights from Buffalo to KC are already sold out?

Color me shocked that there were actually direct flights from KC to Buffalo. I would have guessed that you’d have to fly through Atlanta, Chicago or Dallas to get to Buffalo via KC.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by stevieray

That's not their game plan. They are going to TAKE what they give them and exploit it.

That's my point.

If the Bills bet that they can get a ton of pressure on Mahomes -- which they can, their passrush was the 3rd best in generating sacks this year -- than they'll sit shallow, because our best weapons are shallow or intermediate weapons.

At that point, the Chiefs will have to take what they've been given: downfield shots.

If Watson/Hardman/MVS convert those plays once Mahomes puts it in their hands, we win. If they don't, well.

That's how I'm betting the game.

[tredadda]

Originally Posted by BWillie

This is on the road in a hostile environment. I don't even think most people outside Chiefs fans expect the Chiefs to win. If Mahomes and Co can pull this off they are winning the ****ing Super Bowl and making the Ravens bite the curb.

Nobody is giving KC a chance because of the offensive struggles. They underestimate how good this defense is. KC doesn’t need 30+ points to win this year. This defense is really good and they limited Buffalo earlier in the season despite missing key players. Not saying KC will win for sure but they have a much better chance than people think.

[Kman34]

Have Gay or Drue spy Allen.. Stopping his running will be the difference in the game..