Let's Talk About the Bills, 2023 Divisional Round Edition

[Bearcat]

Discuss.

[Rainbarrel]

The announcers during the game sell the product. Who ever is winning is amazing. Now it seems the pundits job is to push people to bet. Especially in the playoffs

[wachashi]

The Chiefs find themselves in a situation similar to the one Tampa Bay was in during the buildup to the Super Bowl against KC in 2021. Parallels between this game and the dynamics of that game:

- Postseason rematch against a Bills opponent that beat us at home in the regular season (Tampa Bay lost at home to the Chiefs before the Super Bowl)

- In the regular season loss against the Bills, the Chiefs defense played well after giving up early touchdowns (Tampa Bay limited the KC offense in the regular season matchup but only after an explosive first quarter)

- KC plays a Bills opponent that has suffered catastrophic injuries on one side of the ball (Tampa Bay played a Chiefs team with a decimated offensive line)

- Despite the injuries to the Bills, KC is a slight underdog (Tampa Bay was a slight underdog in the Super Bowl, despite injuries on the KC side)

- With a Bills win, Josh Allen can exact revenge for a crushing playoff loss in OT to Mahomes two seasons ago (Two seasons prior to playing Tampa Bay in the Super Bowl, Mahomes lost the AFC Championship to Brady in OT)

- In the playoff loss to Mahomes, Josh Allen never got the ball in overtime (Mahomes never got the ball in overtime in the loss to Brady)

In conclusion, time is a flat circle, and the Chiefs will beat the Bills 31-9.

[ForeverIowan]

What I find ironic is a number of the talking heads discrediting our win vs the Dolphins due to their defensive injuries also seem to be picking the Bills to win. We will see what the injury report looks like today but the Bills are just as beat up on that side of the ball as the Dolphins. Either injuries matter or they dont.

Funny how it took the Bills a 90 yard punt return to beat that same beat up Dolphins team and they didnt have Mostert or Waddle playing. No asterisk on that one.

The truth of the matter is in the NFL, and especially in the playoffs, there is an extremely small margin for error. If a position group or two is depleted you are in trouble (we experienced first-hand in the SB vs. Tampa). Bills defense won't be able to get off the the field on Sunday.

[Jerm]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

Three more days y’all

Vibe check?

I haven't been this confident in the Chiefs all season and I haven't been this confident in a Chiefs win in a long time...

I think you're getting a legendary playoff Pat and playoff Spags performance...Pat is not losing this game.

[FringeNC]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

First: Good to see you back!

Second: Vibe check

I'm vibing well. Some people keep saying this is the most vulnerable the Chiefs have been in recent years, but those folks seem to be completely discounting that this defense is far different and better than recent years defenses.

Yes, the offense was down. If the Chiefs had the defense of last year or 2021, it would be a crippling problem. But they do not.

People also seem to be crediting the Bills' offense as if it is exactly the same as it has been, when it clearly is not.

I think the Chiefs' defense will slow down the Bills a lot. This one is going to come down to the Chiefs protecting the football and doing smart things with it.

Yes, people like to talk about the decline of the Chiefs' offense and it's true, but what about the decline of the Bills' offense? This is not the Bills' offense of 2021 that went games without punting. Nor is their D as good as that year.

[RaidersOftheCellar]

The common media narrative seems to be that the Bills have been awesome lately while the Chiefs have been trash all year. KC only has a chance because Mahomes. Where's this come from? Beating a self-destructing and weak Steelers team at home? Barely escaping the Miami team that KC just blew out? Barely getting by the Patriots and Chargers? Arguing that a team that struggled to beat Easton Stick a few weeks ago is crushing worlds is laughable.

We all know that, for all intents and purposes, they lost the KC game. On a day when every break and bounce (except Allen's bad INT) went the Bills' way. Not to mention that KC was playing with Wanya Morris at LT and no Pacheco or Tranquill. This time the Chiefs are the healthier team.

[St. Patty's Fire]

to consistently move the ball against this chiefs defense you need at least two explosive pass catchers

thats been one of the bills biggest issues in the josh allen era. once you get past diggs, who’s making the big play? this isnt 2020, where gabe davis can go off when we’re allocating resources to covering diggs. we can just out one of sneed/mcduffie on diggs and then the other can cover whoever tf we want on any given play. allen is gonna have to play a 2020 level game for them to even score more than 20 on this D imo, AND they need to be able to run the ball. shakir is an explosive player but do i think he’s gonna be a huge factor having to go up against mcduffie/sneed? no. the bills running game has improved since they changed OCs, but do I think the Bills OL vs the Chiefs DL is a matchup that favors the Chiefs? yes

i’m fully certain that if we can just not turn the ball over we’re a lock to win this

[Bl00dyBizkitz]

Originally Posted by RaidersOftheCellar

The common media narrative seems to be that the Bills have been awesome lately while the Chiefs have been trash all year. KC only has a chance because Mahomes. Where's this come from? Beating a self-destructing and weak Steelers team at home? Barely escaping the Miami team that KC just blew out? Barely getting by the Patriots and Chargers? Arguing that a team that struggled to beat Easton Stick a few weeks ago is crushing worlds is laughable.

We all know that, for all intents and purposes, they lost the KC game. On a day when every break and bounce (except Allen's bad INT) went the Bills' way. Not to mention that KC was playing with Wanya Morris at LT and no Pacheco or Tranquill. This time the Chiefs are the healthier team.

The narrative is a result of us shooting ourselves in the foot and failing to execute, which IS true. If we have another one of those games where the offense has no rhythm and our WRs can't catch balls, we're probably in trouble.

I think the reason they're continuing to lean on that is we haven't put together a solid game against top tier teams. The Bills have beat playoff teams with winning records and the Chiefs haven't. They don't think our recent success is repeatable against a "hardened, tough Bills squad with Josh Allen firing on all cylinders" and they're waiting for us to prove it before they believe the hype.

If our defense stifles the Bills enough and we can take advantage of a depleted, injured Bills defense, we have a great chance. But until that happens, the media will remain in "prove it" mode.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Originally Posted by RaidersOftheCellar

The common media narrative seems to be that the Bills have been awesome lately while the Chiefs have been trash all year. KC only has a chance because Mahomes. Where's this come from? Beating a self-destructing and weak Steelers team at home? Barely escaping the Miami team that KC just blew out? Barely getting by the Patriots and Chargers? Arguing that a team that struggled to beat Easton Stick a few weeks ago is crushing worlds is laughable.

We all know that, for all intents and purposes, they lost the KC game. On a day when every break and bounce (except Allen's bad INT) went the Bills' way. Not to mention that KC was playing with Wanya Morris at LT and no Pacheco or Tranquill. This time the Chiefs are the healthier team.

Yeah you haven’t heard we suck? Man I thought everyone knew the 2023 Chiefs can’t win games like this

[RunKC]

I wouldn't count on the Bills marking anyone out if they don't have to just to keep us guessing. They'll likely put most if not all of them as a game time decision.

[room152]

Originally Posted by Jerm

I haven't been this confident in the Chiefs all season and I haven't been this confident in a Chiefs win in a long time...

I think you're getting a legendary playoff Pat and playoff Spags performance...Pat is not losing this game.

Hard to argue those hard facts. Here's a fun fact: The Chiefs Defense gives up 10 more points on the road than it does at home. That's a huge split. One of the biggest in the league.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

In the world in which KC loses this game, I think the pass rush for us is largely non-existent. If Allen isn’t moved off his spot in the pocket at least, no bueno.

And crazy as it may sound, I actually trust in Omenihu to be the guy who ensures that doesn’t happen. Man on a mission right there.

[St. Patty's Fire]

speaking of diggs, in 7 games against spags D and the chiefs he’s averaged 52 yards a game and has 2 TDs. and that includes one game where he went for 148. so he’s basically been a non to mid factor in every other game, particularly both playoff games.

[CapsLockKey]

Originally Posted by Bl00dyBizkitz

The narrative is a result of us shooting ourselves in the foot and failing to execute, which IS true. If we have another one of those games where the offense has no rhythm and our WRs can't catch balls, we're probably in trouble.

I think the reason they're continuing to lean on that is we haven't put together a solid game against top tier teams. The Bills have beat playoff teams with winning records and the Chiefs haven't. They don't think our recent success is repeatable against a "hardened, tough Bills squad with Josh Allen firing on all cylinders" and they're waiting for us to prove it before they believe the hype.

If our defense stifles the Bills enough and we can take advantage of a depleted, injured Bills defense, we have a great chance. But until that happens, the media will remain in "prove it" mode.

I don't get the narrative that Buffalo has had some gauntlet this season and beat all these playoff teams. Other than the Chiefs they beat Dallas, Tampa and Miami. That's it.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

First: Good to see you back!

Second: Vibe check

I'm vibing well. Some people keep saying this is the most vulnerable the Chiefs have been in recent years, but those folks seem to be completely discounting that this defense is far different and better than recent years defenses.

Yes, the offense was down. If the Chiefs had the defense of last year or 2021, it would be a crippling problem. But they do not.

People also seem to be crediting the Bills' offense as if it is exactly the same as it has been, when it clearly is not.

I think the Chiefs' defense will slow down the Bills a lot. This one is going to come down to the Chiefs protecting the football and doing smart things with it.

I keep asking myself where the real weaknesses are.

WR - obviously. But shit man, Rice and Kelce are two premier pass-catchers at this point. That's as many as most teams have (though admittedly, not as many as Buffalo). For all the talk about Miami's explosive offense, that's what THEY had - Waddle and Hill. Can you name Miami's 3rd leading receiver? Some guy named Durham Smythe - I shit you not.

2 isn't ideal, but it WILL do the job. And I think Hardman is still someone teams have to account for. I think we're okay there. Not spectacular, but okay.

And that's the ONLY area where there are real issues. The defense, top to bottom and left to right, is solid as a rock. Not a single obvious flaw. They can do anything and they're coached by a guy who seems to be in complete control of his instrument and has been all year.

The OL is good. Nobody is ever happy with the OL here in KC because we saw the mountaintop in the DV years. No, the OL isn't THAT good - but I think we probably have the best offensive line left in the playoffs at this point. We have two above average pass blocking OTs and a very versatile and capable interior line. Should we be running the ball through the C gap a lot? No, no we should not. But that's not our style anyway.

I don't see an achilles heel here. I don't see anything that can be exploited. It's just a deep, well coached, very experienced football team.