Let's Talk About Baltimore (AFC Championship)

[SHOWTIME]

Headed back to the AFC Championship Game!!!! Discuss.

[wazu]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Saw Nick Wright arguing (as is his profession) that the Chiefs should be the favorites on Sunday.

Does anyone believe that?

Baltimore, at home, with their record and with a team that's performed at/near the same level we have both offensively and defensively. They even have a very experienced HC and good STs unit.

That's a really good football team.

So am I alone in thinking they SHOULD be favorites? I mean even if they're 60% to win, they'd still be 40% to lose - that's by no means zero.

I agree. The Chiefs just played a Bills team that was banged up and the line was Bills -3. My initial guess was that against a team that appears to be as "complete" as the Ravens, the line would be Ravens -4.5. But then again the Chiefs are coming off a road win where they were the underdogs, and I think the fear of Mahomes is coming back to the general public.

[comochiefsfan]

Originally Posted by SHOWTIME

All the pressure is on Lamar to win this. If the Chiefs lose, we can be somewhat happy that in a down season the Chiefs still ended up in the AFCCG.

Having two rings already takes so much of the pressure off.

It's a weird feeling. In a way, it'll never truly be as fun as it was before. The euphoria I felt after winning that first AFC title will never be matched.

But it is easier on my blood pressure and makes the games more "enjoyable" in the sense that I know that if we lose, I don't have to stew over the idea that we're never going to see them win the big one.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Baltimore guy, tell me how often your receivers line up where, do you have a true “slot”

[comochiefsfan]

Originally Posted by wazu

I agree. The Chiefs just played a Bills team that was banged up and the line was Bills -3. My initial guess was that against a team that appears to be as "complete" as the Ravens, the line would be Ravens -4.5. But then again the Chiefs are coming off a road win where they were the underdogs, and I think the fear of Mahomes is coming back to the general public.

Mahomes and Reid are the new Brady and Belichick.

How many times did the Patriots play a team in the postseason that was more complete on paper but they pulled it out anyway because they had such significant advantages at Head Coach and Quarterback?

The line is a direct result of the respect bettors are giving that combination.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Originally Posted by comochiefsfan

Having two rings already takes so much of the pressure off.

It's a weird feeling. In a way, it'll never truly be as fun as it was before. The euphoria I felt after winning that first AFC title will never be matched.

But it is easier on my blood pressure and makes the games more "enjoyable" in the sense that I know that if we lose, I don't have to stew over the idea that we're never going to see them win the big one.

None will ever be as good as LIV, but I still feel like we are chasing something, ghosts you could say in Brady, Belichick, Montana. Mahomes has made that possible.

Now, when Mahomes goes… THAT is when I think I’ll feel completely free from expectations and frustration.

[FloridaMan88]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Saw Nick Wright arguing (as is his profession) that the Chiefs should be the favorites on Sunday.

Does anyone believe that?

Baltimore, at home, with their record and with a team that's performed at/near the same level we have both offensively and defensively. They even have a very experienced HC and good STs unit.

That's a really good football team.

So am I alone in thinking they SHOULD be favorites? I mean even if they're 60% to win, they'd still be 40% to lose - that's by no means zero.

It’s basically a pick em game if you factor in the home team being a 3 point favorite by default.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

None will ever be as good as LIV, but I still feel like we are chasing something, ghosts you could say in Brady, Belichick, Montana. Mahomes has made that possible.

Now, when Mahomes goes… THAT is when I think I’ll feel completely free from expectations and frustration.

I know everyone says "he's chasing Brady" but man, I'm just not.

I'm chasing Montana. Brady/Belichick was so damn unique and lasted for so long. Mahomes isn't going to get 20 years with Reid. And in passing leagues with penalties now being so critical in the outcomes, results are more random than ever.

I just don't see 7 as a reasonable target. 5 to beat Montana - I'm in. But man, it took so much for 7 to happen for Brady, including cherry picking to get that 7th (and getting the refs in his pocket in the process). Hell, it took rank stupidity by Kyle Shanahan to get Brady his 6th.

Then again, it took a little stupidity by Shanahan to get Mahomes his 1st.

It's just soooooo haaaaaard to keep a good roster when you have a guy making Mahomes money on your cap. Brady's billionaire wife (and under the table arrangements with Kraft) were worth a great player every season for their roster because he was never being paid what he could've earned. He wasn't typically close.

Mahomes should win 4. I think that's a reasonable expectation at this point in his career. But **** fellas, 7 is a LOT. Blows my mind that he managed that while going 10 seasons between 3 and 4.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88

It’s basically a pick em game if you factor in the home team being a 3 point favorite by default.

Which is why I think the line's a little low.

I just don't think it should be. Based on resumes (and partially on rosters), there aren't many reasons to take the Chiefs over Baltimore.

The only reason would be Mahomes over Jackson and their styles are just so uniquely suited for their teams that I'm not sure that's lever worth pulling.

[DRM08]

Originally Posted by comochiefsfan

Mahomes and Reid are the new Brady and Belichick.

How many times did the Patriots play a team in the postseason that was more complete on paper but they pulled it out anyway because they had such significant advantages at Head Coach and Quarterback?

The line is a direct result of the respect bettors are giving that combination.

Agreed. If not for Andy/Mahomes, the betting line would be at least 7 points for Baltimore.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Saw Nick Wright arguing (as is his profession) that the Chiefs should be the favorites on Sunday.

Does anyone believe that?

Baltimore, at home, with their record and with a team that's performed at/near the same level we have both offensively and defensively. They even have a very experienced HC and good STs unit.

That's a really good football team.

So am I alone in thinking they SHOULD be favorites? I mean even if they're 60% to win, they'd still be 40% to lose - that's by no means zero.

That's my sentiments.

[TwistedChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Which is why I think the line's a little low.

I just don't think it should be. Based on resumes (and partially on rosters), there aren't many reasons to take the Chiefs over Baltimore.

The only reason would be Mahomes over Jackson and their styles are just so uniquely suited for their teams that I'm not sure that's lever worth pulling.

What’s confusing to me that it’s the same line as we had against Buffalo.

I put our odds of winning that game at 75% whereas I’m only 40% in this one.

I guess we beat the Bills and Vegas concluded that we’re the old Chiefs again.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Saw Nick Wright arguing (as is his profession) that the Chiefs should be the favorites on Sunday.

Does anyone believe that?

Baltimore, at home, with their record and with a team that's performed at/near the same level we have both offensively and defensively. They even have a very experienced HC and good STs unit.

That's a really good football team.

So am I alone in thinking they SHOULD be favorites? I mean even if they're 60% to win, they'd still be 40% to lose - that's by no means zero.

I think they should be the favorites. Right after the Bills game ended, I even said to my wife that I was expecting it to be Ravens -6 or so, so -3 is even better than I would have guessed.

I think for me, the biggest difference is just that ALL of the pressure is on the Ravens (and Ravens fans). If we lose, so what? We've been to 6 AFCCGs in a row, been to 3 Super Bowls, and won 2 of them. I don't see any strong reason to believe that we won't be right in the mix again next year. So while it would be great to win, it's not gonna ruin my month or anything if they don't.

So in the end, it's more LIKELY that the Ravens will win in theory - sure. But if you had told me a month ago that we would have a 40% chance (in theory) to go to another Super Bowl, I would have been thrilled with that. And then add on the fact that Mahomes, Reid, and Spags seem to have an uncanny ability to pull things out of their asses when we need it the most, and I'm pretty damn optimistic.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by TwistedChief

What’s confusing to me that it’s the same line as we had against Buffalo.

I put our odds of winning that game at 75% whereas I’m only 40% in this one.

I guess we beat the Bills and Vegas concluded that we’re the old Chiefs again.

I think that's exactly where I am.

I was very confident going into the buffalo game. Probably 2 to 1 to win (so not quite your 75%). And I'd say it's more likely than not that we lose to Baltimore so that 40% works.

So maybe it says that Vegas just REALLY missed on the Buffalo line (is that where it opened or where it ended?) rather than that they're missing badly on Baltimore. I mean the Vegas moneyline is +162 for the Chiefs. That's a 38.2% chance of winning when converted to probability.

So Vegas doesn't actually disagree with our 40% figure. So maybe we shouldn't be disagreeing with their 3 point line...

[IowaHawkeyeChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Saw Nick Wright arguing (as is his profession) that the Chiefs should be the favorites on Sunday.

Does anyone believe that?

Baltimore, at home, with their record and with a team that's performed at/near the same level we have both offensively and defensively. They even have a very experienced HC and good STs unit.

That's a really good football team.

So am I alone in thinking they SHOULD be favorites? I mean even if they're 60% to win, they'd still be 40% to lose - that's by no means zero.

With the Chiefs and their struggles this year, I expected the opening line to be -4.5 to -6.5 for the Ravens. Vegas has more data and we are basically slightly worse than a coinflip on a neutral field. What's even more interesting, looking at prop bets, all of the Ravens defensive front are well into the +100 odds for will they have a sack. Both Karlaftis and Jones are -109 to -156. The Ravens lead the league in sacks, but Vegas odds say they don't think they will get to Mahomes. Not saying they won't, just pointing out that I found that very interesting.

[tredadda]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Saw Nick Wright arguing (as is his profession) that the Chiefs should be the favorites on Sunday.

Does anyone believe that?

Baltimore, at home, with their record and with a team that's performed at/near the same level we have both offensively and defensively. They even have a very experienced HC and good STs unit.

That's a really good football team.

So am I alone in thinking they SHOULD be favorites? I mean even if they're 60% to win, they'd still be 40% to lose - that's by no means zero.

Baltimore should be the favorite. Hard to justify why KC being the favorites.

Baltimore has an elite defense, they had the best record in football this year, beat a lot of very good teams, is at home, has a very good offense, has the soon to be league MVP and just dominated their first playoff opponent (who embarrassed the Browns a week prior).

The fact that they are only like 3 to 3.5 point favorites speaks a ton about what Vegas thinks of KC. In this respect I think Wright is incorrect.