Let's Talk About Baltimore (AFC Championship)

[SHOWTIME]

Headed back to the AFC Championship Game!!!! Discuss.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Saw Nick Wright arguing (as is his profession) that the Chiefs should be the favorites on Sunday.

Does anyone believe that?

Baltimore, at home, with their record and with a team that's performed at/near the same level we have both offensively and defensively. They even have a very experienced HC and good STs unit.

That's a really good football team.

So am I alone in thinking they SHOULD be favorites? I mean even if they're 60% to win, they'd still be 40% to lose - that's by no means zero.

I'm sure I could come close to what Wright would say...

• Playoff Mahomes vs playoff Lamar
• 6th AFCCG in a row
• Chiefs have been playing playoff games 3 of the past 4 weeks, Ravens took a couple weeks off and scrimmaged with the Texans last week
• Chiefs just took out Josh Allen and logged their first road playoff victory while being pelted with snowballs, so no questions this week about being on the road
• All the pressure is on the Ravens; not just for some damn respect and to get that monkey off their back of beating a worthy playoff opponent, but if they can't win with THIS team, in a year where they only have to face one of Mahomes/Allen/Burrow, and Stroud won't always be a rookie on an otherwise 4-win team.... when will they ever win one?

(guess I should go listen to it now)

...not that I particularly believe all that should be taken into account in Vegas odds, and I think the current line is fine.

They played a lot of "good" teams... a lot of playoff contenders. Super Bowl contenders... split with the Bengals and won the game where Burrow got hurt. Dismantled the 49ers.

Chiefs, OTOH, were 1-4 against playoff teams in the regular season, even if games were all close and very winnable... and given the Phins were paper champions, really all they're propped up by is the win against the Bills last week. A great win, but does it wipe out the fact the Ravens didn't really have a huge soft spot in their schedule this season?

Hell, after the Chiefs/Lions game, shit got sooooft for a while, like 6 weeks of preseason scrimmage soft.

I think it's fine... -3 at home isn't exactly saying they're the bonafide playoff-proven favorite, seems like they're getting the nod because it's at home and they were far more consistent against a tougher schedule this year.

[tredadda]

Originally Posted by comochiefsfan

Having two rings already takes so much of the pressure off.

It's a weird feeling. In a way, it'll never truly be as fun as it was before. The euphoria I felt after winning that first AFC title will never be matched.

But it is easier on my blood pressure and makes the games more "enjoyable" in the sense that I know that if we lose, I don't have to stew over the idea that we're never going to see them win the big one.

This is why I think KC can go into the game much looser. They have two rings, so the pressure to finally win it is not there. Plus they can play the underdog "hunter" vs the favorite "hunted".

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I know everyone says "he's chasing Brady" but man, I'm just not.

I'm chasing Montana. Brady/Belichick was so damn unique and lasted for so long. Mahomes isn't going to get 20 years with Reid. And in passing leagues with penalties now being so critical in the outcomes, results are more random than ever.

I just don't see 7 as a reasonable target. 5 to beat Montana - I'm in. But man, it took so much for 7 to happen for Brady, including cherry picking to get that 7th (and getting the refs in his pocket in the process). Hell, it took rank stupidity by Kyle Shanahan to get Brady his 6th.

Then again, it took a little stupidity by Shanahan to get Mahomes his 1st.

It's just soooooo haaaaaard to keep a good roster when you have a guy making Mahomes money on your cap. Brady's billionaire wife (and under the table arrangements with Kraft) were worth a great player every season for their roster because he was never being paid what he could've earned. He wasn't typically close.

Mahomes should win 4. I think that's a reasonable expectation at this point in his career. But **** fellas, 7 is a LOT. Blows my mind that he managed that while going 10 seasons between 3 and 4.

Let me clarify - I’m not someone who thinks Mahomes has to win 7 to “catch” Brady as GOAT. Hell, I saw Mad Dog Russo saying today that he’s already the best he’s ever seen.

I think if he does touch 5, by then, it’ll be pretty unanimous outside of the New England region that Mahomes is the best player ever — the one people first think of when the sport of football is brought up for many many years.

Mayfield kinda showed us this year that Tampa was a ring chasing championship anyways, like we always knew. We’ll see where it goes. Can’t get to four, five, six, etc without #3.

[comochiefsfan]

Originally Posted by tredadda

This is why I think KC can go into the game much looser. They have two rings, so the pressure to finally win it is not there. Plus they can play the underdog "hunter" vs the favorite "hunted".

You can tell how much Mahomes and the team love getting the chance to play the underdog.

They've so rarely gotten to do it that it fires them up like crazy every time it happens.

I truly think that they get bored during the regular season being the favorite all the time and that's a big reason for some of the lapses in focus.

[tredadda]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I know everyone says "he's chasing Brady" but man, I'm just not.

I'm chasing Montana. Brady/Belichick was so damn unique and lasted for so long. Mahomes isn't going to get 20 years with Reid. And in passing leagues with penalties now being so critical in the outcomes, results are more random than ever.

I just don't see 7 as a reasonable target. 5 to beat Montana - I'm in. But man, it took so much for 7 to happen for Brady, including cherry picking to get that 7th (and getting the refs in his pocket in the process). Hell, it took rank stupidity by Kyle Shanahan to get Brady his 6th.

Then again, it took a little stupidity by Shanahan to get Mahomes his 1st.

It's just soooooo haaaaaard to keep a good roster when you have a guy making Mahomes money on your cap. Brady's billionaire wife (and under the table arrangements with Kraft) were worth a great player every season for their roster because he was never being paid what he could've earned. He wasn't typically close.

Mahomes should win 4. I think that's a reasonable expectation at this point in his career. But **** fellas, 7 is a LOT. Blows my mind that he managed that while going 10 seasons between 3 and 4.

And Carrol/Wilson for #5 and Dee Ford for #4.

What Brady/Belechick accomplished together may never be broken, especially in a salary cap era. As you mentioned, so many things had to go just right to get what they had.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I know everyone says "he's chasing Brady" but man, I'm just not.

I'm chasing Montana. Brady/Belichick was so damn unique and lasted for so long. Mahomes isn't going to get 20 years with Reid. And in passing leagues with penalties now being so critical in the outcomes, results are more random than ever.

I just don't see 7 as a reasonable target. 5 to beat Montana - I'm in. But man, it took so much for 7 to happen for Brady, including cherry picking to get that 7th (and getting the refs in his pocket in the process). Hell, it took rank stupidity by Kyle Shanahan to get Brady his 6th.

Then again, it took a little stupidity by Shanahan to get Mahomes his 1st.

It's just soooooo haaaaaard to keep a good roster when you have a guy making Mahomes money on your cap. Brady's billionaire wife (and under the table arrangements with Kraft) were worth a great player every season for their roster because he was never being paid what he could've earned. He wasn't typically close.

Mahomes should win 4. I think that's a reasonable expectation at this point in his career. But **** fellas, 7 is a LOT. Blows my mind that he managed that while going 10 seasons between 3 and 4.

Yeah I tend to agree.

It's crazy to me that he has almost wrapped up records to make him 2nd all time.

8 TD's from 2nd in all time postseason passing TD's
4 wins from 2nd all time in postseason wins

He's gonna break about all of Tom's postseason records. I think even winning 4 would put him on the argument but 5 would really solidify it.

Of course it depends on who the coach is when Andy inevitably retires

[IowaHawkeyeChief]

Originally Posted by tredadda

Baltimore should be the favorite. Hard to justify why KC being the favorites.

Baltimore has an elite defense, they had the best record in football this year, beat a lot of very good teams, is at home, has a very good offense, has the soon to be league MVP and just dominated their first playoff opponent (who embarrassed the Browns a week prior).

The fact that they are only like 3 to 3.5 point favorites speaks a ton about what Vegas thinks of KC. In this respect I think Wright is incorrect.

Also, after 5 straight AFC Championship games before this year, the Chiefs really got complacent during the regular season. Folks are bringing up the records against winning teams. That's fine, but every game we played this year was in a premium media time slot and teams played against us like it was their Superbowl. We just can't get up every week like that. 5 of our 6 losses were by one score or less and self inflicted mistakes were usually the reason for the L. Our one loss by more than one score was to Denver, when it was really their Superbowl to the extreme, and Mahomes couldn't even participate in meetings or practices Friday on with the flu, and we had unexplicable 4 turnovers. We are playoff focused now, and if we don't make mistakes, it's going to be a tall task for Baltimore. If we make mistakes, we will most likely lose because Baltimore is very well coached. My goal is to be close or up in the 3rd Quarter and the pressure will build immensely on the Ravens.

[DRM08]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I know everyone says "he's chasing Brady" but man, I'm just not.

I'm chasing Montana. Brady/Belichick was so damn unique and lasted for so long. Mahomes isn't going to get 20 years with Reid. And in passing leagues with penalties now being so critical in the outcomes, results are more random than ever.

I just don't see 7 as a reasonable target. 5 to beat Montana - I'm in. But man, it took so much for 7 to happen for Brady, including cherry picking to get that 7th (and getting the refs in his pocket in the process). Hell, it took rank stupidity by Kyle Shanahan to get Brady his 6th.

Then again, it took a little stupidity by Shanahan to get Mahomes his 1st.

It's just soooooo haaaaaard to keep a good roster when you have a guy making Mahomes money on your cap. Brady's billionaire wife (and under the table arrangements with Kraft) were worth a great player every season for their roster because he was never being paid what he could've earned. He wasn't typically close.

Mahomes should win 4. I think that's a reasonable expectation at this point in his career. But **** fellas, 7 is a LOT. Blows my mind that he managed that while going 10 seasons between 3 and 4.

Agreed. Brady is uncatchable. The 2 losses to him in the Playoffs hurt. But he’s a very lucky guy. Dee Ford and the Overtime rule that no longer exists, plus the Chiefs OL being wiped out in the 2nd game helped make a difference in these matchups.

I would love to see 4 rings for Mahomes & Andy. If they get there, he is clear cut the #2 guy in the GOAT list. He never had shutdown defenses helping him like Montana or Bradshaw or Brady or Aikman. The salary cap has made his job much tougher than it was for Bradshaw, Montana, and Aikman. He is gonna end up way above Montana/Bradshaw/Aikman in Playoff wins even if he does not catch them in ring totals. Patrick is only 3 wins short of tying Montana for 2nd All-Time in Playoff wins, which is insane for a 28 year old kid. And nobody can accuse him of being carried by his defense to Playoff wins, like the washed up Peyton Manning in 2015.

The main one I want to see is Ring #3, which will shut up Troy Aikman once and for all. Talking shit about a 22 year old kid in his first season. “Let me know when he gets 3 rings.” Screw Aikman.

[tredadda]

Originally Posted by comochiefsfan

You can tell how much Mahomes and the team love getting the chance to play the underdog.

They've so rarely gotten to do it that it fires them up like crazy every time it happens.

I truly think that they get bored during the regular season being the favorite all the time and that's a big reason for some of the lapses in focus.

I wonder how much fatigue plays into this as well during the regular season. Mahomes is about to play in his 17th playoff game. That's an entire additional season for him/Kelce/Jones, and some of the others that have been on the team for a bit. The playoffs are a different animal to get up for, but regular season games can potentially create lapses.

[comochiefsfan]

Originally Posted by DRM08

Agreed. Brady is uncatchable. The 2 losses to him in the Playoffs hurt. But he’s a very lucky guy. Dee Ford and the Overtime rule that no longer exists, plus the Chiefs OL being wiped out in the 2nd game helped make a difference in these matchups.

I would love to see 4 rings for Mahomes & Andy. If they get there, he is clear cut the #2 guy in the GOAT list. He never had shutdown defenses helping him like Montana or Bradshaw or Brady or Aikman. The salary cap has made his job much tougher than it was for Bradshaw, Montana, and Aikman. He is gonna end up way above Montana/Bradshaw/Aikman in Playoff wins even if he does not catch them in ring totals. Patrick is only 3 wins short of tying Montana for 2nd All-Time in Playoff wins, which is insane for a 28 year old kid. And nobody can accuse him of being carried by his defense to Playoff wins, like the washed up Petyon Manning in 2015.

The main one I want to see is Ring #3, which will shut up Troy Aikman once and for all. Talking shit about a 22 year old kid in his first season. “Let me know when he gets 3 rings.” Screw Aikman.

Troy Aikman is insecure because deep down he knows he wouldn't have sniffed the Hall of Fame had he not been in a perfect situation in Dallas.

He's supremely jealous of genuinely great QBs like Patrick because it hurts his fragile ego.

[tredadda]

Originally Posted by DRM08

Agreed. Brady is uncatchable. The 2 losses to him in the Playoffs hurt. But he’s a very lucky guy. Dee Ford and the Overtime rule that no longer exists, plus the Chiefs OL being wiped out in the 2nd game helped make a difference in these matchups.

I would love to see 4 rings for Mahomes & Andy. If they get there, he is clear cut the #2 guy in the GOAT list. He never had shutdown defenses helping him like Montana or Bradshaw or Brady or Aikman. The salary cap has made his job much tougher than it was for Bradshaw, Montana, and Aikman. He is gonna end up way above Montana/Bradshaw/Aikman in Playoff wins even if he does not catch them in ring totals. Patrick is only 3 wins short of tying Montana for 2nd All-Time in Playoff wins, which is insane for a 28 year old kid. And nobody can accuse him of being carried by his defense to Playoff wins, like the washed up Petyon Manning in 2015.

The main one I want to see is Ring #3, which will shut up Troy Aikman once and for all. Talking shit about a 22 year old kid in his first season. “Let me know when he gets 3 rings.” Screw Aikman.

Realistically a large number of Brady's records will never be broken. Outside of the year Pollard took him out in game 1 (2008 season I believe), he has been stunningly healthy. That's why his numbers might never be caught and 7 rings is probably uncatchable as well. Mahomes can still catch and pass everyone else relatively easily though.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

I know he’s had a good career, but Kyle Van Noy starts at EDGE for Baltimore?! And Clowney, although a career year, on the other side?

Mahomes hasn’t been sacked in his last three playoff games as it is.

[DRM08]

Originally Posted by tredadda

And Carrol/Wilson for #5 and Dee Ford for #4.

What Brady/Belechick accomplished together may never be broken, especially in a salary cap era. As you mentioned, so many things had to go just right to get what they had.

How about the Tuck Rule? That was absolutely a fumble and he deserved to lose in the snow to the Raiders. If Tom Brady was born 15 years later, he would not have benefited from this short-lived rule. None of the historically great QB's other than Brady have benefited from this rule, which only existed from 1999 to 2013.

The Overtime rule in the Dee Ford game no longer exists as well. Brady has been a super lucky dude on this kind of stuff. Chiefs entire OL got wiped out late in the season, plus Andy's son had the horrible car wreck right before the Super Bowl game to create a massive distraction for the team. Pete Carroll's brain fart on the goal line. It's unbelievable how fortunate Brady has been when you think about it.

[Bearcat]

I might be in the minority, but I really don't care where he lands in the GOAT argument, because it'll always be just that... an argument.

Everyone knows what we say about Brady.. all the stats, Super Bowls, longevity, etc; well, he's a cheater and got really lucky 5 times.

It'll be the same for Mahomes.... hell, it already is. HOF coach, HOF WR for a few years, HOF TE for his entire career so far, haters will focus on the roughing and defensive holding calls last year before they look at Dee Ford.

Unless he does something Gretzky-like (and not everyone thinks he's the GOAT) and is so far ahead of all other players it's just plain ridiculous, people will argue until the end of time... so who ****ing cares.

He's on our team and we get to watch him for hopefully many more years, and he'll go down as the greatest of all time we've watched & gave a siht about (at least until the next one comes along).

He's our GOAT, damnit.

[Jerm]

Originally Posted by DRM08

How about the Tuck Rule? That was absolutely a fumble and he deserved to lose in the snow to the Raiders. If Tom Brady was born 15 years later, he would not have benefited from this short-lived rule. None of the historically great QB's other than Brady have benefited from this rule, which only existed from 1999 to 2013.

The Overtime rule in the Dee Ford game no longer exists as well. Brady has been a super lucky dude on this kind of stuff. Chiefs entire OL got wiped out late in the season, plus Andy's son had the horrible car wreck right before the Super Bowl game to create a massive distraction for the team. Pete Carroll's brain fart on the goal line. It's unbelievable how fortunate Brady has been when you think about it.

Think about Jon Kasay, one of the best kickers at that time, inexplicably booting the last kickoff in that Super Bowl out of bounds giving the Pats great field position....

You aren't wrong lol.