Let's Talk About Baltimore (AFC Championship)

[SHOWTIME]

Headed back to the AFC Championship Game!!!! Discuss.

[digger]

Originally Posted by OneWinningDrive

Alright, I'm done. Don't want to derail this thread any further than I already have. Will only post about football stuff now if I'm not banned. Hoping for a great game and the first of many in the playoffs.

Tappout accepted...

[tredadda]

Originally Posted by OneWinningDrive

Just want to make one thing clear since it seems to be a recurrent theme here that the perception is most Ravens fans think the disparity between these two games is large and it winds up being a blowout. I don’t think that represents the fanbase. Anyone predicting that is not only wrong but disrespectful. The Chiefs have earned the right to never be considered outlclassed/outgunned.

I bring up the 23 Ravens DVOA not to say that the Ravens are so much better than the Chiefs. The point is more so that the Ravens are better than the other “contenders” that people here want to lump the Ravens in with (Titans, Texans, Bills, Bengals, Eagles). The Chiefs aren’t the Dolphins or 9ers or other teams the Ravens beat up on. But the Ravens aren’t the Titans or Bills.

So I don’t fault Chiefs fans whatsoever for pounding their chests and saying that they’re infallible until proven otherwise. I just think the Ravens have the best chance yet to prove it otherwise, and there are empirical reasons to believe that.

Regarding the representation of your fanbase, that might be accurate. I do not know. All I know is what I read and continue to read. I will take your word for that.

I get what you mean regarding the other contenders, but my point was not how those teams fared during the season or DVOA numbers. It was simply the extreme overconfidence of those fans. It is that overconfidence that we have heard time and again.

Being confident in your team and providing reasons for that confidence is one thing. It's another when it's overconfidence because you believe your own press. Those are the fans that I am referring to and keep seeing a lot of. It's this mindset that "There is no way KC wins and we will blow them out" only for the results to play differently.

It's so bad that Bengals fans were claiming "Scripted" when a hobbled Mahomes knocked them out of the AFCCG. There was no way that KC should have won, so the only logical conclusion was "script". Same thing leading up to and after the SB because Philly fans could not envision any scenario where they lose. Despite all the evidence to the contrary they blame the holding penalty (which was the right call) for why they lost and glossed over every other factor.

Now most on here will acknowledge that Baltimore is a good team and could very well knock off KC. We just aren't willing to hand over the Lamar Hunt trophy until Baltimore earns it. KC's playing in their 17th playoff game in the Mahomes era. They do not lack for playoff experience or knowing what it takes to win when it matters. I do think the game will be closer than expected and not some sort of UGA-GA Southern outcome.

[OneWinningDrive]

Originally Posted by Megatron96

Hardly makes KC infallible. Does tend to hide a lot of warts, when there are a lot of warts, like this season.


Personally, I had BAL beating KC in this game a few weeks ago, when we were kind of prognosticating what the playoffs would look like.

Imo, BAL is the more complete team this season, with a much better group of weapons than they've had in the past (is Mark Andrews going to play in this game, btw?) and a defense the equal of, possibly even better than, the Chiefs' defense. Though the margin is pretty thin in that regard. Again, imo.

But really, this game probably will be decided by whether Pacheco will be effective running the ball vs. your DL/LBs (something I'm not confident about) and if Pat can elevate the play of his receivers not named Travis Kelce/Rashee Rice, something else that I have doubts about. And KC is dependent on Pacheco being able to run the ball effectively, this season more than any other. And our WRs, outside of Rice, are basically varying degrees of trash.


So Pat will have to play a really great game. No average performance is going to get it done. i expect BAL to score somewhere in the mid-20s, maybe as many as 27, after watching how they dismantled SF's defense. The Chiefs offense is going to have to elevate their play above anything we've seen so far in 2023.

This is where I'm hoping that your DL won't be able to generate consistent quick pressure on Mahomes. That somehow Andy will find a way to keep them at bay long enough for Pat to get through his reads and execute the offense.

If not, we're probably toast.

But none of that is extraordinary. Every offense needs to be able to protect the passer and run the ball to win. If our defense can stuff the run and pressure Lamar but keep him from running all over the place, we have a legit shot at beating BAL. Simple. Not easy by any stretch, but simple.

Good takes. Agree with most of this.

I really do think the operative matchup is the Chiefs' IOL vs Ravens' DTs. Both because that's how the Ravens generate pressure without blitzing and because run stopping is the one relative weakness the defense has had. I hope Thuney plays so that we get a true test of those two units against each other.

As to Andrews, there was a report today that he is good to go for Sunday. Tough to tell whether that's a smokescreen, but I think this was the game they've been targeting. He doesn't rely on athleticism, so it's not the end of the world if he's gimpy. I think his being on the field would be valuable as a distraction/decoy if nothing else.

[smithandrew051]

Originally Posted by OneWinningDrive

Turned out with the refs gifting the Chiefs a penalty to decide the game in the final few seconds.

It was the correct call, but let’s not act like the Ravens haven’t been the beneficiary of a correct (yet controversial) no-call in a key moment of the Super Bowl:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/gameo...avens/1889389/

[IowaHawkeyeChief]

Originally Posted by OneWinningDrive

We're talking about the ownership family that cornered the silver market and led to market panics/crashes for personal gain, correct?

The Chiefs are a great franchise. I wish the Colts hadn't left Baltimore and there was more history between the KC/Baltimore franchises, but alas, the Ravens have turned out well for us.

it was legal and a reaction to the gov't increasing debt and printing money. The government started regulating silver and that caused the price to drop, which caused them to lose considerable amount of money. They also fined them to save face, but it wasn't criminal, and left without governemnt interference would have been brilliant as inflation did go through the roof.

[OneWinningDrive]

Originally Posted by smithandrew051

It was the correct call, but let’s not act like the Ravens haven’t been the beneficiary of a correct (yet controversial) no-call in a key moment of the Super Bowl:

Touche! Although I would argue the refs are better to err on the side of a no-call in those instances than the other way around. Hopefully this game doesn't come down to that.

[OneWinningDrive]

Originally Posted by tredadda

Now most on here will acknowledge that Baltimore is a good team and could very well knock off KC. We just aren't willing to hand over the Lamar Hunt trophy until Baltimore earns it. KC's playing in their 17th playoff game in the Mahomes era. They do not lack for playoff experience or knowing what it takes to win when it matters. I do think the game will be closer than expected and not some sort of UGA-GA Southern outcome.

I can respect this. It's also an entertaining flex that you guys all call it the "Lamar Hunt" trophy. Never heard anyone else refer to it that way, but it makes sense obviously.

[Raiderhater]

Originally Posted by OneWinningDrive

I can respect this. It's also an entertaining flex that you guys all call it the "Lamar Hunt" trophy. Never heard anyone else refer to it that way, but it makes sense obviously.

That is literally what the trophy is called every time it is presented to the AFCC.

[tredadda]

Originally Posted by OneWinningDrive

Sure, that’s fair. The Ravens have to win the game. But these narratives re. “choker” and whatnot are true until suddenly… they’re not.

Peyton Manning was once a choker before he won two SBs. Lebron couldn’t get over the hump until he did again and again and again.

Enjoy the take while it lasts.

Might want to watch that second SB win for Manning again before saying he "won" it. He was the beneficiary of an elite defense. It has zero to do with justifying him as not a choker.

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by OneWinningDrive

Good takes. Agree with most of this.

I really do think the operative matchup is the Chiefs' IOL vs Ravens' DTs. Both because that's how the Ravens generate pressure without blitzing and because run stopping is the one relative weakness the defense has had. I hope Thuney plays so that we get a true test of those two units against each other.

As to Andrews, there was a report today that he is good to go for Sunday. Tough to tell whether that's a smokescreen, but I think this was the game they've been targeting. He doesn't rely on athleticism, so it's not the end of the world if he's gimpy. I think his being on the field would be valuable as a distraction/decoy if nothing else.

I think I read somewhere that it's basically a coinflip whether Thuney plays. Obviously, we'd want him to play, but Allegretti is a serviceable backup if it comes to it. He's not great, but he's not a turnstile either.


Andrews will pose a real problem if he plays. He's a great TE/pass catcher and we'll have to spend real resources to keep him under wraps. And we will, because my guess is that Spags will want to make Lamar as uncomfortable as possible, and if he can't consistently go to Andrews, that'll make Lamar pretty uncomfortable.

[notorious]

Turnover battle decides this.

If the Chiefs don't turn it over they are damn near impossible to beat. History confirms this.

Hell, even when the Chiefs spot an opponent +2 or +3 in the turnover department it's a nail-biter.

[tredadda]

Originally Posted by Pasta Little Brother

....and you're playing Mahomes this week. You do realize that right?

See you post all that and then you all wonder why we are so confident.

Self ownage.

I was so hoping that this would be the game Blackledge redeemed himself.

[OneWinningDrive]

Originally Posted by Raiderhater

That is literally what the trophy is called every time it is presented to the AFCC.

Sure but I've never heard any other fanbase say "Lamar Hunt" trophy with their chest like I've seen here. It's technically called that, but no one says it colloquially, they just say "AFC champs" or whatnot. No shade, I just find it funny.

[digger]

Originally Posted by OneWinningDrive

I can respect this. It's also an entertaining flex that you guys all call it the "Lamar Hunt" trophy. Never heard anyone else refer to it that way, but it makes sense obviously.

Tell us you're new to football, without telling us you're new to football...

[Raiderhater]

Originally Posted by OneWinningDrive

Sure but I've never heard any other fanbase say "Lamar Hunt" trophy with their chest like I've seen here. It's technically called that, but no one says it colloquially, they just say "AFC champs" or whatnot. No shade, I just find it funny.

AFC champs works if talking about a team, not when talking about handing over the trophy. It’s not weird and it’s not a flex.