Let's Talk About Baltimore (AFC Championship)

[SHOWTIME]

Headed back to the AFC Championship Game!!!! Discuss.

[StalkRavenMad]

Originally Posted by Megatron96

I think I read somewhere that it's basically a coinflip whether Thuney plays. Obviously, we'd want him to play, but Allegretti is a serviceable backup if it comes to it. He's not great, but he's not a turnstile either.


Andrews will pose a real problem if he plays. He's a great TE/pass catcher and we'll have to spend real resources to keep him under wraps. And we will, because my guess is that Spags will want to make Lamar as uncomfortable as possible, and if he can't consistently go to Andrews, that'll make Lamar pretty uncomfortable.

I have agreed with most of what you said, however Lamar has played 7 games without Andrews and won 6 of them. I think he's been pretty comfortable without Andrews.

[DRM08]

Originally Posted by OneWinningDrive

The defense and just overall roster quality have always been there for sure. And if they didn't have Lamar, they would still be good with a different system. But this current version of the Ravens has been built around Lamar and is dysfunctional without him. I actually think that's the best argument for why he's the MVP. It's not a statistical argument so much as he is indispensable to his team and propels them to (regular season thus far) success.

In 2021, they were 8-3 and the one seed until Lamar got hurt, and then they lost their final six games to miss the playoffs. In 2022, 9-4 until Lamar got hurt. They remain competitive with Huntley because he can run the same offense and the rest of the roster/coaching staff is very good, but Lamar makes it all go.

Here's a way to think about it. Take Brock Purdy. He put up big numbers on the 49ers. Now put him on the Ravens. Are the Ravens even remotely as good as they are now with him throwing to Zay Flowers/Bateman/Likely instead of Aiyuk/Deebo/Kittle and having a backfield with Gus Edwards instead of McAffrey?

Obviously Lamar is a million, maybe even a billion times more valuable than Brock Purdy. I think everyone realizes Purdy is a product of a stacked roster on both sides of the ball with a coach who seems to have a schematic advantage on the league. The huge "value" with Purdy right now is the super cheap rookie contract of a guy drafted in the 7th round. It will be hilarious if they end up giving him a top dollar contract.

But that TJ Watt statistic is just absolutely wild to me. I think the other positions outside of QB are not given enough thought in these MVP discussions. This 90% losing stat on TJ Watt injury games would indicate a 2-15 season for the Steelers...all because of one defensive player. They went 10-7 with him healthy. So the dude is worth 8 damn wins. That's crazy for a defensive player to be this valuable.

The other one I think about is Tyreek Hill in Miami. I think he has done tremendous stuff for them and he's extremely valuable to their performance. I feel bad for the Miami front office. Tua's agent is going to squeeze them for top dollar in the QB market, but Tua is propped up by his weapons...Tyreek hands down has the biggest impact of all those weapons. Biggest impact of any RB/WR in the league. Completely changes how defensive coordinators have to call games.

[T-post Tom]

Originally Posted by Chiefs Pantalones

This thread has gone full blown AIDS. My goodness

DammitCarl!

[philfree]

Originally Posted by OneWinningDrive

Then you should know that simply looking at the box score or adding up his season totals for passing yards doesn't capture how he affects the games.

Stats have some meaning but I was surprised because I figured with his over 800 rushing yards he would have had more combined yards. There's nothing really for you to defend because Lamar will get the MVP.

[OneWinningDrive]

Originally Posted by StalkRavenMad

I have agreed with most of what you said, however Lamar has played 7 games without Andrews and won 6 of them. I think he's been pretty comfortable without Andrews.

There's a bit of a "Ewing effect" with Andrews being out in the sense that the offense has gotten better without him because Lamar has had to be more creative and not just default to his safety blanket.

But at the same time, having that safety blanket would now be useful. I thought that last week during the first half against the Texans. When they were blitzing like crazy, it would have been helpful to have Andrews out there for Lamar to have a reliable option to connect with while the gameplan was being adjusted.

Gronk tweeted something today about how a two-TE set with Andrews and Likely would be deadly. And Monken did have great success with that at Georgia. But I'm not sure we'll get to see that this year if Andrews is gimpy. The bigger benefit to me is that if and when Spagnuolo dials up a tailor-made gameplan, Andrews is there as an outlet when all else fails.

[OneWinningDrive]

Originally Posted by DRM08

Obviously Lamar is a million, maybe even a billion times more valuable than Brock Purdy. I think everyone realizes Purdy is a product of a stacked roster on both sides of the ball with a coach who seems to have a schematic advantage on the league. The huge "value" with Purdy right now is the super cheap rookie contract of a guy drafted in the 7th round. It will be hilarious if they end up giving him a top dollar contract.

But that TJ Watt statistic is just absolutely wild to me. I think the other positions outside of QB are not given enough thought in these MVP discussions. This 90% losing stat on TJ Watt injury games would indicate a 2-15 season for the Steelers...all because of one defensive player. They went 10-7 with him healthy. So the dude is worth 8 damn wins. That's crazy for a defensive player to be this valuable.

The other one I think about is Tyreek Hill in Miami. I think he has done tremendous stuff for them and he's extremely valuable to their performance. I feel bad for the Miami front office. Tua's agent is going to squeeze them for top dollar in the QB market, but Tua is propped up by his weapons...Tyreek hands down has the biggest impact of all those weapons. Biggest impact of any RB/WR in the league. Completely changes how defensive coordinators have to call games.

Watt and Hill are definitely "valuable" in the MVP context. I think Lamar is in that same tier though; this would be a very average offense without him in the same way that the Steelers/Dolphins dropoff without Watt/Hill.

I almost wish they would just have a "QB MVP" and then MVP for everyone else, because the nature of the QB position is always going to be more valuable regardless.

By the way, what's the consensus amongst Chiefs fans about KC and Tyreek at this point? Was it just an inevitability that he had to go given his cost? If you could go back now and spend every available cap dollar on him, would it have been worth it?

[OneWinningDrive]

Originally Posted by philfree

Stats have some meaning but I was surprised because I figured with his over 800 rushing yards he would have had more combined yards. There's nothing really for you to defend because Lamar will get the MVP.

It's a fair point. I commend you for looking beyond the passing stats to the rushing ones for Lamar to see if it closes the gap. And in 2019 when he won his first MVP, that was the case. But this year his totals don't blow you away no matter how you cut them. Still easily the MVP though imo.

[StalkRavenMad]

Originally Posted by Pasta Little Brother

Buffalo is a better organization with a better QB than Baltimore

Because you said so?

[DRM08]

Originally Posted by OneWinningDrive

Watt and Hill are definitely "valuable" in the MVP context. I think Lamar is in that same tier though; this would be a very average offense without him in the same way that the Steelers/Dolphins dropoff without Watt/Hill.

I almost wish they would just have a "QB MVP" and then MVP for everyone else, because the nature of the QB position is always going to be more valuable regardless.

By the way, what's the consensus amongst Chiefs fans about KC and Tyreek at this point? Was it just an inevitability that he had to go given his cost? If you could go back now and spend every available cap dollar on him, would it have been worth it?

They won a Super Bowl last year without Tyreek. I think KC fans have a mixed view on it. Tyreek currently has serious problems off the field with baby mama drama, supposedly divorce stuff going on too. I am not sure anyone would be happy to have this type of distraction in KC.

My biggest thing with the Chiefs front office is that Patrick does not need Tyreek, the fastest dude in the league (an absurd standard). He only needs solid dudes who will run routes in the correct spot and catch the damn ball. Tyler Lockett is the kind of guy I would like to have for Patrick. Even guys like Amendola & Welker & Edelman. Brady was fortunate to have dudes who didn't mess up the most basic part of the WR job.

Chiefs front office has whiffed pretty bad in this "fundamentals" regard with the likes of MVS, Skyy Moore, and Kadarius Toney. Rashee Rice seems to be a pretty good draft pick, but time will tell if the kid is able to keep it going next year and beyond. I think it's a pretty big red flag on MVS that the Packers & Rodgers seemed happy to get rid of him back in 2022. Same thing with Giants being so eager to dump Toney when he was a recent 1st round Draft pick. Skyy Moore is just a mega bust, poor evaluation and whatever else with him.

[FloridaMan88]

Originally Posted by StalkRavenMad

Tje only one that looks at Mahomes as the GOAT is Chiefs Planet. While being wildly talented there's a guy that has 7 Lombardis that is the consensus GOAT. I guess if Chiefs Planet said it it's golden.

So you have Bill Russell and his 11 championships as the GOAT over MJ?

[FloridaMan88]

Originally Posted by StalkRavenMad

Because you said so?

Josh Allen has more than double the # of playoff wins as a starting QB compared to Lamar.

Shit, Baker Mayfield has more playoff wins than Lamar.

[OneWinningDrive]

Originally Posted by DRM08

They won a Super Bowl last year without Tyreek. I think KC fans have a mixed view on it. Tyreek currently has serious problems off the field with baby mama drama, supposedly divorce stuff going on too. I am not sure anyone would be happy to have this type of distraction in KC.

My biggest thing with the Chiefs front office is that Patrick does not need Tyreek, the fastest dude in the league (an absurd standard). He only needs solid dudes who will run routes in the correct spot and catch the damn ball. Tyler Lockett is the kind of guy I would like to have for Patrick. Even guys like Amendola & Welker & Edelman. Brady was fortunate to have dudes who didn't mess up the most basic part of the WR job.

Chiefs front office has whiffed pretty bad in this "fundamentals" regard with the likes of MVS, Skyy Moore, and Kadarius Toney. Rashee Rice seems to be a pretty good draft pick, but time will tell if the kid is able to keep it going next year and beyond. I think it's a pretty big red flag on MVS that the Packers & Rodgers seemed happy to get rid of him back in 2022. Same thing with Giants being so eager to dump Toney when he was a recent 1st round Draft pick. Skyy Moore is just a mega bust, poor evaluation and whatever else with him.

Makes sense. It's almost just a minimum competency thing. You don't want to be like the Packers with Rodgers when they couldn't give him anything other than Adams.

This is a really good draft for WRs. I'm hoping the Ravens grab one down in this 29-32 range where the Ravens/Chiefs will be picking. A guy like Troy Franklin might be available and he would go mid-first many years. Also a great OT year, which I imagine is a need for both teams. Not the worst consolation prize that the loser of this game might be able to snipe the other team at a position they're both coveting.

[Chief Pagan]

Originally Posted by StalkRavenMad

Let me get this straight if Lamar loses to God in cleats, the greatest HC in history and the greatest playoff DC in history its another choke job. But if God in Cleats, the greatest HC, and the greatest playoff DC loses to a perennial choker they just chalk it up to be down year? You can't make this stuff up.

This is probably the best team Lamar has had and everything for the Ravens appears to be clicking.

KC's defense has played well, but KC's WR have sucked and dragged down the rest of the offense. It has been a down year for KC in the Mahomes' era.

Rice has improved things, but there is no reliable deep threat.

Do you think it's been a down year for the Ravens?

If Lamar can't beat Mahomes this year, when can he?

Sure, next few years the KC D might not be as elite, but the offense is likely to be better. Lamar is no longer on a rookie contract and that will bite at some point.

[StalkRavenMad]

Originally Posted by DRM08

I don't agree. Kaepernick was exposed on the field as a guy who struggled to read defenses. Harbaugh did a great job hiding that for Kaep in the first couple years. If Kaepernick performed like Mahomes, he never would have been blackballed in the league. Easy to blackball a dude when he's performing like a backup QB, and even got benched for poor performance before the blackball stuff happened.

Mahomes signed a ridiculously team-friendly deal back in 2020 with only $140M guaranteed for 12 years. This season his agent asked the Chiefs to update the cash flow and guaranteed money, so they did. He's getting $210M fully guaranteed over 4 years (2023 to 2026). They are gonna re-work the contract again in 2026-2027.

Chiefs could have told Mahomes to go screw himself, and they didn't. I feel very confident if he ever made it to the open market, the entire league would be falling over themselves to hand him a fully guaranteed contract. If they did it with Deshaun Watson, they would absolutely do it with Mahomes.

Have you seem the backlash the owners gave Haslem for that contract. Kaep was blackballed because he was messing with the owners bottom line. IDC who you are ignoring one is above the shield. If Mahomes was a FA and demanded a fully guaranteed deal than he would be playing baseball. There will not be another fully guaranteed long term contract for a very long time. The owners aren't going to willingly give up their power. They've fought long and hard to garner and keep that power and they aren't about to give it up. If they give Mahomes a fully guaranteed deal Then everyone coming behind him would demand one. The were hell bent on making Watson the outlier and not the norm. Demaurice Smith was on the Pivot podcast talking about this give it a listen and it would be really clear what happened.

[DRM08]

Originally Posted by StalkRavenMad

Have you seem the backlash the owners gave Haslem for that contract. Kaep was blackballed because he was messing with the owners bottom line. IDC who you are ignoring one is above the shield. If Mahomes was a FA and demanded a fully guaranteed deal than he would be playing baseball. There will not be another fully guaranteed long term contract for a very long time. The owners aren't going to willingly give up their power. They've fought long and hard to garner and keep that power and they aren't about to give it up. If they give Mahomes a fully guaranteed deal Then everyone coming behind him would demand one. The were hell bent on making Watson the outlier and not the norm. Demaurice Smith was on the Pivot podcast talking about this give it a listen and it would be really clear what happened.

Mahomes just got 4 years fully guaranteed at $210 million. Seems like a pretty dang awesome deal on his end IMHO. The Chiefs could have told him to screw off when he asked for that considering he was already under contract for a very long time into the future. They had plenty of leverage on their side to not give him what he wanted.